I do not hide the fact that I put a lot of weight into weather and stadiums when it comes to potential hitting targets. It’s obviously not a 100% factor for me but I’m always checking do we have games in Coors, Camden, Great American Ballpark, Truist, Chase, etc., etc. Where the game is being played and what conditions it’s being played in are the first thing I check out to filter games. The players themselves are still the most important aspect, but the variables are what really drives day to day analysis and outside of Pitching, the #1 variable is the ballpark.
I mention this because today is a quiet six game slate and it has none of what I would consider top 10 stadiums on it. This really gives us an even playing field and in many scenarios we have good pitching vs good hitting and bad hitting vs bad pitching. I really like it and encourage you to not be upset when you don’t see a ton of Home Runs tonight.
WEATHER
There is a chance for rain delay or sprinkles between the Orioles and Twins up in Target Field, but I do not anticipate anything major and I expect all games to play.
Brandon Woodruff, Lance Lynn, John Means… There are some guys who are pretty good pitching today but something that note when it comes to ‘Ratings’ and the projections on these guys. Woodruff specifically should be someone who has a rating of 80 or better given how well he has pitched and facing a good Padres team he’s still #1 on the model as of this morning but his rating is lower than it should be for where his price is. So that combined with my expectation on the Padres tonight has me ruling him out.
David Peterson (DK: $7,000, FD: $8,000)
The Colorado Rockies are on the road and furthermore they’re going into a really big park and facing a LHP which really makes them the easy target to pick on today. Peterson is a mid range arm who we have had success with when facing an opponent in a bad split — which is exactly what we have with the Rockies today. Mets win easily tonight.
Frankie Montas (DK: $6,200, FD: $8,000)
Frankie will pitch as well as Woodry/Lynn/Means tonight. Seattle’s not a massive power lineup and going into Oakland isn’t gonna help them much out either. Montas has a 28% K-Rate against LHB this year which is a good portion of the Mariners lineup and there isn’t a real meat of the order stretch he will have to deal with tonight so I like his chances to get into the 7th inning without much damage against him.
FADES
Blake Snell
Lance Lynn
Austin Gomber
Orioles
Mancini – Mullins – Hays – Severino
God damn I love the Orioles tonight. Matt Shoemaker is easily in the conversation for one of the worst arms on the slate + the Twins bullpen isnt good either and the Orioles are healthier and hitting very well right now. Trey Mancini continues to have his best season yet while Anthony Santander being back has given the Orioles another productive bat at the heart of their lineup.
Padres
Pham – Tatis – Hosmer – Myers
I would like to ride good teams who are hot right now and the Padres have really turned things on of late while Tatis is just out of this world. They’re always better away from PETCO and this is one of the good park shifts a team is getting tonight. Plus, we’ll see them come in around 5% owned even on a six game slate because of Woodruff.
Cardinals
Goldschmidt, Arenado, Molina
As you can see I am not believing in going with the chalk tonight, there’s too much leverage to pivot elsewhere and the final decision today comes down to Cardinals or Twins in games where the chalk is on the other side. The Cardinals are facing former Cardinal Lance Lynn who is going to be more popular than John Means, so the Cards > Twins in terms of leverage plays today. We’re not exactly stacking bad players here either considering we got Goldy, Nado and Molina vs his former SP.
CATCHER
- Yadier Molina – Caught Lynn, a while ago, but he did catch him, fits the narrative.
- James McCann – McCannon vs a LH rookie. Fun times!
FIRST BASE
- Trey Mancini (OF on FD)
- Paul Goldschmidt
- Eric Hosmer
SECOND BASE
- Nick Madrigral
- Cronengoat
- Jonathan Schoop
THIRD BASE
- Matt Chapman
- Nolan Arenado
- Jose Ramierz
SHORTSTOP
Six game slate and the hottest hitter in fucking Baseball might be 10% owned. Lets fucking go.
- Fernando Tatis Jr
OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore
- Anthony Santander
- Nelson Cruz
- Cedric Mullins
- Sir Thomas Pham
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Wil Myers
- Ramon Laureano
- Jurickson Profar
- Eddie Rosario
OUTFIELD – Value
- Austin Hays
The Dongers Club
- Fernando Tatis Jr – SS – Padres – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Austin Hays – OF – Orioles
- Nolan Arenado – 3B – Cardinals
- Paul Goldschmidt – 1B – Cardinals
- Jonathan Schoop – 2B – Tigers
- James McCann – C – Mets
- Cedric Mullins – OF – Orioles
- Trent Grisham – OF – Padres
- BONUS ………………… Jose Ramirez – 3B – Indians
LINEUP CONSTRUCTION THOUGHTS
Chalkiest Stacks
- White Sox
- Orioles
- Tigers
- Ahtletics
Team(s) with most upside getting overlooked and also not being attacked with a SP (i.e. Low owned secondary stacks)
- Twins
- Cardinals
LEVERAGE PLAYS
- Twins and Cardinals while everyone has the other teams in those games
- Mets … Don’t laugh, but Rockies pen isn’t good and Gomber is going to have one of those “oh shit, Im still a rookie” games.
DK SE SP Recommendation
- Peterson and Montas
FD SE Recommendation
- Montas
CORE HITTERS FOR SE
- Fernando Tatis Jr
- Austin Hays