I thought Week 1 went exceptional and if you had the right contest selection as I did then you should have netted more than a 2x weekend as I did.  Something I do each week is go back and look at my article and analysis to try and grade it out.  The key to my article and every article out there should be to avoid flops while finding plays which are ++.  When I say, ++, I mean that literally in terms of a grading scale.  To me plays fall into a 1-5 type grading category where two ++ indicators mean it was not only a good play but a very good play, and two –‘s mean the play likely doomed you.  The average?  That’s just a blank score itself where it didn’t exactly hit but at the same time didn’t kill you.

So if we are grading the Five Ambush plays themselves they would have graded out as such:

1. DK Metcalf (+) … Mostly because his ownership was up there so you really benefited by having him instead of trying to fade, I could definitely see where someone thinks he was just a 0 or average.
2. Todd Gurley (+)
3. Cleveland Browns (–)
4. Indianapolis destroying Jacksonville (-)
5. Fading the Eagles (++)

So overall score?  1 point.  Best score would be a 10, and that’s obviously a week we smash gazillions of dollars and overall you’d look at that and say, meh, no big deal.  But I remind everyone that your main lineup should be a mix of the Ambush top plays and then look at the positional breakdown because there’s no reason to be playing a lineup that is 2-5% owned players everywhere in NFL if you are in the right contests.  The positional break down top players were Russell Wilson, Josh Jacobs, Todd Gurley, Alvin Kamara, DK Metcalf, Adam Thielen as the one off WR….  That core right there got you 3x last weekend.

I mention this not as a pat on the back by any stretch, but as a reminder on how to use the plays here.

I will once again be playing a main lineup on FanDuel, and going deeper with multiple lineups (up to 10 this week) on DraftKings which will stem more from a mix of my Ambush plays more than anything else.

But once again.  Any play which is (-) or (–) to me is something I take personally as a bad recommendation and I don’t care where you play it, Cash, GPP, 3-man, head to head with your cousin Vinnie or even a 3-man with Vinnie and his wife if you are into that sort of thing.  A bad call is a bad call.

That includes everyone who rostered Boston Scott and DeSean Jackson last week btw.

Here’s a recap of what this article covers

• This article will cover plays that I am using on my MAIN lineup & what that is being entered into.
• This article will cover plays that I am using on my SECOND tier lineups & what contests those are being entered into.
• This article will cover plays that I am using on my THIRD tier lineups & what contests those are being entered into.
• This article will cover my favorite weekly BETS for the weekend games.
• This article will cover who I feel is chalk and how it should be addressed.
• This article will cover all my NFL thoughts in one spot.

What are The Ambush plays? These are my plays that I feel warrant the most attention for a given week. It’s a mix of three types of players/teams each week. We’ll cover the stud you gotta have no matter what. We’ll cover the contrarian pivots. We’ll cover my favorite games/stacks of the week.

The first thing we must do each Week is understand the landscape of the slate and any injury or weather or miscellaneous information that we need to monitor from the time this article comes out (Saturday’s) until lock on Sunday at 1PM EST.

Injuries and Playing Time Concerns

A lot of injuries again this week but it seems like everything is more than clear going into the weekend.  One of the largest benefits of doing your notes or pre-noise analysis every week on Monday or Tuesday is that you can identify a bad spot for a team before injuries sway your opinion.

• Lots of WR injuries this week, the biggest of which are …
  • AJ Brown, Kenny Golladay, Jamison Crowder, Chris Godwin are all OUT
• TE Notable injuries
  • George Kittle is OUT
• As of Saturday morning there are NO injuries which I am monitoring that could sway any of my recommendations below and if there are, I will note it in the notes below…
• Cool?  Let’s ride.

Fire up The Ambush Intro music

Weather Status

Humid, cloud, chance of storms with lots of wind between Carolina and Tampa Bay.  I have enough experience with September games in Tampa Bay that begin at 1:00 PM to tell you — storms are most definitely in play here.

Projected Ownership

No commentary here, this is strictly what the projected ownership looks like for this week.  Trust me on this data.  But one thing you need to remember is that Quarterback ownership rarely matters because the margin of difference on most Quarterbacks scores is minimal — it’s the easiest position to get different from the crowd and not have a disaster — but it’s also the position that is hardest to really separate yourself with a high score from lots of options.  Is there one or two guys that do it?  Yes.  But rarely does ownership at QB kill you.

HIGH chalk plays are in BOLD

Unlike with Baseball, Hockey and College Football I tend to do more than one lineup in NFL.  But I do not jump into MME by any stretch of the imagination as I am still in single entry tournaments and will have a ‘Main’ lineup that stretches across cash, single entry, 3 entry max and multi-entry tournaments.  It’s the lineup where I build out what I view to be the best plays for the weekend and it has a good mix of my Ambush plays.

That said, the five Ambush plays you see weekly from me are usually spread out across three to five lineups.  I prefer FanDuel because it’s only half point PPR, does not have stupid bonuses and the pricing is more balanced in my view.  But the way I play multiple lineups is by rolling my second and third favorite lineups on different sites.  This way I am still able to capitalize on the best tournaments (higher dollar with limited entries) with a single lineup but I get to capitalize on the aspect of spreading out my exposure to different spots.  So when you see me reference something like “DK Metcalf everywhere” that means I’m rolling him on all the different sites.  But when you see “I will have a lineup with X,Y,Z” that means it’s just a specific lineup that I am rolling that on.  I share this to be transparent and also to hopefully help you balance how to play multiple sites for NFL.

DALLAS CHALK-BOYS

Ambush Play #1 – Aint no Cowboy a bad Cowboy this week…

So what do we know about the Cowboys opponent, the Atlanta Falcons?  Well, besides the fact that they blew a 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl, play in a stadium that looks like (** censored **) and once had a coach go for it on his own 29 yard line in overtime and fail?  They’re small.  Very small.  This team is smaller and softer than Jose Altuve after he was outed for wearing a buzzer in the playoffs.  The Cowboys on the other hand are big and physical up front and should be able to eat across the board this week.  The two players who I have the most assurance in doing well for Dallas are Dakota Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot and yes I prefer to spell their entire names out because it makes me sound way smarter and them sound way cooler!  I expect Elliott to catch plenty of passes, get over 100 yards from scrimmage and score but there are a bunch of solid running backs this week so you can take a risk for certain off him and go with Prescott and one of his triplet receivers.

My pick?  It’s a game to hop on board with Michael Gallup as their big play threat down the field and not rush yet to CeeDee Lamb, who’s time is most certainly coming but Atlanta’s safeties will be prepared for him.  When Gallup catches a crossing pattern inside the 30 and turns it up field for a touchdown you’ll be dancing like the fine ladies in the TV Show Dallas.

FINDING 3x

Ambush Play #2 – Ronald Jones and yes Miles Sanders score touchdowns and both deliver 3x their value this week.

I have an absolutely love affair for these two mid-priced home running backs this week.  It has nothing to do with their week one performances (or lack there of in the case of Sanders) either.  This is entirely about the current week and identifying a good match-up which both of these guys have.

The easy one to break down first is Ronald Jones who faces the worst rushing defense in the league that will be on the road in a game that might have strong winds, rain, storms, you name it.  Throw in that Tampa Bay will easily shut down CMC and that Brady has no need to air it out deep without Chris Godwin and this is a no doubt about it Ronald Jones spot — just if they let him.  Ronald Jones is the clear #1 still in Tampa despite the additions of Leonard Fournette and LeSean McCoy.  By the way, whenever Shady McCoy came into the huddle last week it was like he was sneaking onto the field from the stands with a helmet on and was like “hey guys, I heard we are here to win a championship, OHHH SNAP, IT’S GRONK, WHATS UP GRONK.  DUDE, WHERE WE GOING AFTER THIS?”   The guy has no right being on the field with Tampa and should promptly be cut within a week or two.  The coaching staff absolutely loves Ronald Jones and this is the game they remind him that he is their guy going forward.  An easy Bucs win and Ronald Jones scoring twice (just lord please do not fumble RoJo) is the easy call for me this week.

Miles Sanders on the other hand is the one with caution.  Not because of the Rams.  No, no, no, no, no, no…. How does one attack the Rams?  You do it with a pass catching running back or by running right at Aaron Donald.  After Carson Wentz was seemingly chasing his own tail constantly last week you think they are going to let him take a 5-step drop back with Aaron Donald — the QB killer — coming after him and that offensive line that cannot pass block right now?  No.  The Rams defensive weakness is at LB and the Eagles sure as heck won’t be looking to pick on Jalen Ramsey at all either in this game.  However, one has to wonder what Ramsey is actually gonna do?  He’ll look at D-Jax and just laugh and say nah, too old for me.  Then he’ll see Jalen Reager in warm ups and say screw that I’m not Wile E. Coyote, someone else can chase Road Runner over there and then he’ll end up on J.J. Arcega-Whiteside and just start bawling laughing at his poor route running.  Needless to say, the Eagles will run the ball and throw a ton of screen passes in this game.  The man who should benefit the most is Miles Sanders — if they let him.

THE BOURNE ULTIMATUM

Ambush Play #3 – Kendrick Bourne is a value one off WR who shines for the Niners in a week of value WR’s

So everyone and their brother is sitting here clamoring over how bad the J-E-T-S, Just End The Season, JETS are.  And honestly, I cannot blame them.  How does one not look at the 49ers in this spot and say they roll by 40 points?  Yes, they are a west coast team coming east for a 1PM early game but the 49ers were better than anyone last season in that same spot going 3-1 in some very convincing wins.  Their defense should absolutely shut down the Jets offense and give Jimmy G plenty of opportunities to put the 49ers offense in the end zone.

But without George Kittle, without Deebo Samuel, without knowing exactly where to go, how does one play it?  Simple.  You take the value WR that nobody see’s coming.  Kendrick Bourne.  He was in on 57 of the 49ers 61 offensive snaps in week one and drew five targets in a game that had a really poor flow to it.  San Francisco will be more efficient this week and it’s not a spot where they should just run it down the Jets throat — they should air it out.  Buffalo, who is a run first team for crying out loud came out last week and threw it over 40 times when they had the game in control the whole way.  Gimme Jimmy G throwing two touchdowns to Kendrick Bourne this week or give me a San Francisco fade.

Overall on a slate with Hopkins, Adams, Julio all being top plays there’s a bunch of mid range Wide Receivers who I see getting things done.

THUNDERSTRUCK

Ambush Play #4 – Tee it up late with Ty…. Tyrod Taylor and the Chargers as they upset the Chiefs

“I’m going to give you a little advice. There’s a force in the universe that makes things happen. And all you have to do is get in touch with it, stop thinking, let things happen, and be the ball.”  – Ty Webb

The Quarterback that everyone is going to be talking about come Monday morning is playing in the three games that begin after 4PM EST this weekend.  No, it’s not Lamar Jackson.  Nope, not DeShaun Watson.  Kyler Murray?  Negatory.  Patrick Mahomes?  Nah, smell ya later?   Dewayne Haskins?  LOL.  No.

Led by Austin Ekeler and Tyrod Taylor the San Diego, L.A. Chargers ladies and gentlemen.  In a game the L.A. Chargers not only cover but sneak out a big upset over the defending Champion Kansas City Chiefs.  After raising their banner on opening night the Chiefs had ten days to rest up for the Chargers who sneaked out a nice win against the Bengals last week and come into this game with a good enough defense to force the Chiefs into some short drives which will allow Tyrod to attack the Chiefs through the air to Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen, a combination that has done fairly well against the Chiefs in the past.

In mind, this is the late game that has the best stack potential in it.

SITTING THIS ONE OUT – Fades of the week

Ambush Play #5 – Sometimes good football games don’t mean DFS exposure

There are a couple games this weekend which look really good on paper and look tempting in the DFS world as well.  But for me there are so many good spots this weekend that the only way I feel we can approach this slate is by crossing a few games off the list.  And much like I did last week with the Eagles when there were other good spots, I am going to cross a few teams off the list.  It’s not that you don’t expect these teams to do anything as much as you need to identify spots that will not KILL you by fading them when you have confidence in other plays.  That is your DFS lesson of the week.  Now for the games I won’t be touching

Minnesota at Indianapolis

This game features two excellent coaches and coaching staffs and two teams who ideally want to run the ball more than they air it out.  Both got into a spot in Week 1 where they wound up throwing more than they would have liked and in the case of the Vikings they had almost no time of possession.  I expect both coaches to rebound their teams big time this week and we see a game that winds up 20-17 won by a late Colts FG.  Do guys like Parris Campbell, Dalvin Cook, TY Hilton make a lot of sense here?  Absolutely they do.  And if you want to ride with one then go ahead, but really I don’t see any reason to go Cook when we have about 7 Running Back’s who are in prime spots and the TY Hilton / Parris Campbell plays are merely one offs hoping they break a big one against a bad Vikings secondary — however neither should be in a 7 to 9 catch game when the Colts are also going to establish the run.

Jacksonville at Tennessee

I understand Derrick Henry had dominated the Jaguars, but he’s also been a late in the year RB who just simply wears on tired teams.  The Titans are coming in off a short week where they played in Mile High and Henry was logging a ton of snaps in that game.  It makes all the data sense in the world, but when Henry winds up with only 15 fantasy points this weekend you’ll kinda wonder why you wasted all that salary on him in a game that’s just blah and proves the Jaguars aren’t that good because the Titans D and slow tempo wins the game.

Week 2 Fades:

• Colts/Vikings
• Jaguars/Titans
• Benny Snell Jr.

RECAP OF AMBUSH PLAYS

1. The Cowboys chalk is the free square this week.
2. Those mid range Running Backs, favored at home should not get overlooked
3. Value WR #2 Week:  This is the week of one off value WR, and mine is Kendrick Bourne
4. Your longshot QB and upset of the week?  Tyrod Taylor and the Chargers vs Chiefs, best stack of the week.
5. Fades of the week

So I plan to just write up 3 Quarterbacks.  I am not one of these touts who likes to try and cover all my bases with 10 picks each week at Quarterback.  The goal is to not pick mistakes while finding the guy who fits within the right value.  I always believe Quarterback is overhyped in DFS and so if you want someone who isn’t listed here you definitely have other options.  But I’m banking on 20+ from everyone below this week.

Dak Prescott

The Cowboys should get 300 yards passing from Dak and 100 yards rushing from Elliott this weekend.  While I don’t see Atlanta putting up a ton of points to make this an amazing shootout, there’s no reason why you can’t lock in Prescott and Elliott together knowing both are hitting those magical yardage numbers and you then essentially have all touchdowns covered with both of them together.  There’s a reason Wilson was so good last week and Dak should be in that same spot here this week.  So much so that I almost didn’t want to write up any other Quarterbacks

Josh Allen

I’ll bite.  I see no great reason for Allen to throw the volume of passes he did in week one as they should be able to run well against Miami, but part of that running includes Josh Allen himself.  And if I like him to get a big pass play to John Brown and I like Dawson Knox to get in the box as well then we gotta expect Allen to top 20 points this week.

Tyrod Taylor

Quarterback is so dead set this week where Dakota Prescott is going to not crash and burn so any other recommendations are complete longshots in my mind.  Tyrod Taylor will be my Quarterback on a 4PM only slate that features Mahomes, Watson, Lamar and Kyler Murray.  How’s that for strapping things on and going crazy?

Just missed my top 3:  Jimmy G, Matt Stafford, Aaron Rodgers

Not touching:  Matt Ryan

Running Back is not the spot to always get cute with.  Once you have a pool of a few players you lock them in and move on.  That is very much the case for me this week although the rare spot with the schedule for week 1 is that I wouldn’t say there’s a top dog above the rest here.  

As you can tell, this is a 3 RB in the FLEX week everywhere.

Ezekiel Elliott

Carolina had an atrocious rushing defense last year but it was slightly better at home where former Panther Luke Keuchley always seemed to be locked in on what the other team was about to do.  Luke is now gone and retired and despite using their first round pick on the mighty Derrick Brown I am still interested in picking on the Panther defense with running backs this season.

Austin Ekeler

Ekeler is a much better play on DraftKings where you could get the 100 total yards from scrimmage bonus and obviously all the full PPR points you can get where he should catch a bunch of passes from Tyrod Taylor.  Ekeler was someone I didn’t think was a great seasonal pick this season because I prefer him in passing game situations more than just rushing, but this is one of those spots.

Ronald Jones (FD) & Miles Sanders (DK)

Outlined both who have some usage limitations above, but I could not envision better spots for either all season long.

Forgotten Stud

Saquan Barkley

Coming into the season I was higher on Barkley than any other RB.  A huge reason why is that I see him having some stability at Quarterback that keeps him involved in the passing game.  This is a very good spot against the Bears who despite having some guys back this year were still weak against the run last week in Detroit.  Look for the Giants to use Saquan early and often and he’ll be a safe DraftKings play to get over the 100 total yards this week with lots of upside in the red zone as well.

Just missed my cut:  Nobody, my list of RB is clear this week.

Not touching:    Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor

No position is more different week to week between DraftKings and FanDuel than Wide Receiver.  This extends onto the other sites like FantasyDraft and Yahoo! as well but when you look at evaluations on Wide Receivers you gotta understand the difference in site scoring, pricing and sometimes ownership. 

The plan here is to outline the top two receivers, a stud sleeper one off, a value sleeper one off and then the top 5 other WR I would use on secondary lineups.  I am open to feedback always so if you find this helping or confusing then let me know.  But the reason for this is that WR is the spot you take shots on.  Quarterback is where you can go lower ownership, RB is where you do not chase bad chalk and WR is where because  you start 3 or 4 each week you are taking some gambles.  So the list is longer, but the focal point guys should be narrow.

Allen Robinson

Squeaky wheel syndrome?  Sure.  But A-Rob is more then that this week against the NY Giants.  Do you really want to trust the Bears ground game?  I didn’t think so, and they have no other valid passing game options for Trubisky to air mail some passes to this week which in my mind makes Robinson up there with Adams and Hopkins as elite target share players this week that should get 14 targets, 10 catches and go over 100 yards with a touchdown.  In a meeting last  year versus the Giants, Robinson was a focal point for CHicago getting 6 catches for 131 yards and a touchdown.  That game finished 19-14 and I see this one being slightly better as the Giants offense should push the score on the Bears.  So given that I am betting the Giants to win and I expect Robinson to be the primary target for the Bears this week, we gotta like his chances to pop off…  And if he doesn’t pop off statistically then he’ll pop off on Monday morning when he quits on the Bears.

Marquise Brown

Did you read what I just wrote?  If so, then I don’t need to explain much on the big play aspect that Hollywood brings.  But versus the Texans he has the speed that nobody in that secondary has.  For Baltimore this week it’s a game which I dont’ trust to hit the high 54.5 total but the Ravens air attack is clear and obvious through Hollywood and Mark Andrews and a healthy Hollywood Brown.

Stud Sleeper One Off(s)

DeAndre Hopkins

I can’t believe I am having to write this but it sounds like nobody wants to force Hopkins into their lineups this week after forcing in DeSean Jackson against the same Redskins last week?  The one thing Kyler Murray has which Wentz wasn’t always able to do last week is he can buy a little time against the Redskins pass rush and get the ball out FAST.  While everyone is out there jumping on Davante Adams despite the obvious Rodgers get Lazard and others involved spot, we should look to the late slate for a stud WR pivot instead with the best WR on the entire slate.

Value Sleeper One Off(s)

Allen Lazard

We have to make a decision on how the slate is going to play out and for me I am leaning more and more with it being a #2 WR weak around the league.  Outside of Allen Robinson who is the ONLY option in Chicago, I am liking a ton of secondary Wide Receivers this week.  So why not look at Lazard who continues to get more and more looks from Rodgers — including red zone looks — week in and week out as another great play for less $ against the Lions secondary?  After Adams was Rodgers man against the Vikings last week early on it should be Lazard who he forces it to early this week and by looking at these #2 WR’s we can get a really balanced lineup without having to play some longshot value plays at RB and TE.

Kendrick Bourne

Outlined him above in the Ambush section.

The top others in play for me this week

John Brown

The Dolphins are this years version of what the Cleveland Browns have been the last two seasons.  A team who logically is going to trend in an upward direction within their division but everyone’s thinking they are a sneaky upset way too early in the season.  Sure, Miami probably wins five games this season but it won’t happen this early in the season yet.  They’re still a bad defense and they just let the Patriots and Cam Newton in his debut do whatever they wanted against them.  We have some hot conditions in Miami this week and so this sets up great for the defense to be gassed due to not being able to stop the Bills ground game and allowing John Brown to catch a deep pass for a 70 yard touchdown.  My decision this week is to take longshot home run type wide receivers on two of my WR, pair them with a high volume play (i.e. Robinson, Hopkins, Adams, etc.) and trust the running backs do what I expect them to do.

Davante Adams … Obviously as consistent as they come, priced up though and I prefer going Hopkins while using Lazard from Green Bay

Michael Gallup (Amari Cooper / CeeDee Lamb) … All three Cowboys WR are priced low enough that you can expect them to perform well for their prices.  I ranked them in order I would use them.

Marvin Jones Jr. … High volume game from Stafford

Tyreek Hill … Expect one big play from him which gets him into the mix.  If the game does shoot out, he’ll have to be involved for the Chiefs

Not touching:  Mike Evans, Julio Jones, Titans WR 

No position in fantasy football is more true to “DvP” (Defense vs Position) than Tight End.  But it does change from season to season.  Last year it was attack the Bucs and Cardinals every week with Tight Ends, but now the Cardinals have added a Isaiah Simmons who can be really good in coverage when he realizes what he should be doing, but for now he is very raw.  Tampa’s defense continues to improve so I expect them to get better vs TE but maybe not dominant quite yet.  

Travis Kelce

You gotta love either Kelce or Tyreek Hill.  I don’t see this game going under and I certainly don’t see the Chiefs doing it with CEH or any of their secondary receivers.  Kelce is the main threat who if they have to march down the field will have the volume and the red zone targets.  Tyreek is the big play bomb.  You must have one of them in your lineup this week.

Mark Andrews

Tight Ends against Houston has long been one of my trends, so as much as I want to be down on this game for DFS, the Mark Andrews play should come through in flying colors.

Hayden Hurst

Matt Ryan is not going to have any support in the run game and he won’t have any time to try and chuck it deep to Julio or Ridley.  So it comes down to Russell Gage and Hayden Hurst to help sustain drives and we know Matt Ryan prefers throwing to his TE when he is down and beat up.  He’s the best mid-range play on the board at TE.

TE Darts

• Dallas Goedert … It’s looking more and more like the transition from Ertz to Goedert is going to happen after this season and that should continue this week.
• Dawson Knox … Dawson Knox gets in the Box!
• Jordan Reed … Man I hate this play but what I hate even more is that in my early week notes I circled him as a guy who scores with Kittle likely sitting out.  So here we are.  I prefer Jimmy G and the 49ers offense greatly over Philip Rivers and the Colts offense this week so play Jordan Reed and not Mo Cox.

Not touching:  Mo-Alie Cox

Something that is flying under the radar this week is how many defenses look good to me.  We have lots of higher totals and games which seem like they’re going to be fantastic but there’s also some really good defenses this week.

San Francisco

Like you, I too have no idea how the Jets score.

Pittsburgh

Don’t care if they are on a short week.  They’re at home and facing Drew Lock who should have zero help from his running game and almost no time to throw.  3 or more sacks and 2 or more turnovers is in the bank

Buffalo

The Fitzmagic magic has worn off.  Buffalo wins a game everyone is predicting a sneaky Dolphins victory in and they do it convincingly with their defense.

Sleepers:   Philadelphia Eagles, Tennessee Titans

Not touching:   Arizona Defense

Questions and Answers

It’s back!  The analysis you never knew you needed.  The Questions and Answers that I anticipate you asking even though you haven’t actually asked it yet…

QUESTION:  Between articles on other sites. Other slack chats & Twitter I feel DK Cash Lineup is gonna be a cluster**** and everyone’s gonna be on the same players or same roster construction.    Is it even worth playing Cash Games this week when it’s like that

Ah, the ole “Forced Cash Lineup” problem.  When a couple optimizers/projections push a player to be at the top because he is a perceived value play.  Guess what, I had zero Boston Scott or DeSean Jackson last weekend in cash/main lineup and I did more than fine without them.  You should never be forced into a play simply because they are “cash touted”.   This certainly does not mean that having 8 players who are all 3% owned in cash winds up being a good build, but the goal in any lineup with football is to find balance.

I would also remind you that this is the danger in listening to too much noise without having done notes yourself or having your trusted sources identified.  It’s not necessarily bad that everyone appears to end up on the same plays, but to say that they end up on the same plays in a “cash lineup” and then have a different conversation about “gpp” is making you a bad DFS player.  You should be rostering players because you think they will produce, not because they simply are chalky and are “value” plays.  If this process didn’t work for me in the long run, I wouldn’t be playing cash games with my main lineup still after 5+ years.

QUESTION:  What’s your favorite stack combo out of Atlanta/Dallas and Carolina/Tampa Bay

I don’t see Carolina doing anything on offense because they just lack the weapons to exploit Tampa Bay.  The Bucs linebackers have proven they can handle CMC last season and should be able to do that again this week.  Teddy needs a big WR or TE to attack Tampa and I just don’t see Ian Thomas doing it.  For Tampa, a full stack seems a bit excessive to me this week where they’ll be able to run it a lot with Jones and Fournette so the clear answer is the Atlanta/Dallas game.

Unfortunately the Falcons only have two players you should consider though.  Julio Jones and Hayden Hurst.  I personally like going Dak-Zeke-[Dallas WR]-Hurst as a stack from this game.  Gallup is the initial pick but let’s be honest, any of the big three WR for them will likely produce solid results.  The key is pairing both Dak and Zeke together.  For Atlanta, Julio Jones gets his usual 8-110  yards, but Hayden Hurst is the guy catching a ton of balls in a hurry up offense late as they are trailing.

QUESTION:  Who is getting overlooked this week and why is it Josh Allen vs Miami?

QUESTION:  Should we just go back to the well with DaVante Adams and DeAndre Hopkins?

Yup, but don’t be shocked when Allan Lazard and Larry Fitzgerald catch touchdowns instead.

QUESTION:  Rank these cheap/value plays this week:   Corey Davis, Breshad Periman, Parris Campbell, Diontae Johnson, Scotty Miller

1. Parris Campbell … Out of this group he is the most likely to hit that home run play this week.  I’ll always lean him at home and Pittman on the road (grass) as I did incorrectly last week — but I still expect Pittman to be a star long term.
2. Diontae Johnson … This one could be my favorite of the group after we saw Ju-Ju go remind everyone he is still good on Monday night.  But back home against another secondary they can have some success in I would not be shocked to see Johnson do what everyone expected from him on Monday night.  Second tier Wide Receivers usually play better at home and a 6 catch game here is what I expect.
3. Scotty Miller … He is Brady’s guy.  Lock it in now before everyone realizes this by week 6.  It’s not Evans, it’s not Godwin, it’s not Howard, it’s not Gronk.  Miller is the guy Brady will use the most.  DraftKings full PPR play only though because he won’t get the TD this week.
4. Corey Davis … 4 catches, 46 yards, 0 TD in a game that’s over by 3:30 pm.  Blah.
5. Breshad Periman … The person who asked this question would basically have been like me asking someone to rank Tre’Squan Smith in their player pool this week …  No Jets!!!!

QUESTION:  Is Mo Allie-Cox a cheap lock at TE or paying up for Dallas Goedert, OJ Howard, T.J. Hockenson range?

This is obviously a DraftKings specific question where he is $3,000 and 3 catches for 30 yards is 2x!

Mo Allie-Cox is a worthless play this week.  The Vikings gave up nothing to Green Bay TE’s in week one and have not been bad historically against Tight Ends either.  In fact, if you happen to get a little crazy minded this weekend and sneak into an NFL stadium, go grab some gear and a #82 jersey and catch a touchdown then you would have the same amount of touchdowns as the Vikings allowed in all of 2019.  Throw on top of that the whole world is suddenly attacking Minnesota for not having a secondary (which they haven’t really had one since end of 2017 season) and now not having a rush defense.  So, wait, Mike Zimmer who is one of the best defensive minds in the game is going to let his defense just start giving up touchdowns to Mo Allie-Cox?  No.  And the best upside for Allie-Cox is that Jonathan Taylor fumbles and he falls on it in the end zone for a touchdown and manages to get 11 fantasy points.  Guess what, there’s some studs above him who will also get that and a TON MORE value Wide Receivers to balance things out in your lineup.

Bottom line for me, I would not start your lineup with Mo Cox because the last thing we need in this world are Mo Cox.  If you happen to start a lineup that you want to get some core of the Zeke, Barkley, Adams, Nuk, Kelce studs this week all out there and you get to FLEX and have 3k left?  Ok, sure.  But don’t start at TE with him because the other guys are far better.

QUESTION:  For Defense, which Quarterback will make the most mistakes?

So I think the obvious answers here would be either Ryan Fitzpatrick (vs Buffalo) or Sam Darnold (vs San Francisco).  But neither is the player who immediately came to mind for me.

Jared Goff

Goff has turned the ball over in 7 of his last 9 games and the only two he didn’t were both against the Arizona Cardinals.  He’s a frequent 2 turnover player who has historically been known for being bad on the road and outdoors.  These little nuggets that we like to use in DFS/Fantasy seem to take us a few weeks to remember but there’s a ton of reasons to expect Goff mistakes this week.  They’re going west to east on a short week.  They’re facing an Eagles defense which is greatly revamped and is one of the best against the run which should force a higher volume of passing attempts (good for mistakes).  And at only $2,600 on DraftKings this week, the Eagles defense is your value play much like Washington was last week.

Others who came to mind:  Gardner Minshew, Mitchell Trubisky

QUESTION:  What is the worst chalk play touts are banging the drum for this week?

There’s no ‘Boston Scott’ in my mind this week.  I outlined the Mo Allie-Cox play as a bad one above but honestly he is only going to be a little chalky on DraftKings at $3,000 and I bet it’s not that high.  However, the fact that anyone is saying more than three words about him is pretty bad.

Another set of three games this weekend and the Charger-Chiefs game is the one I am in love with the most.

Give us a total out there call this week?  Or two?

Matt Stafford and Marvin Jones outperform Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams

Tyrod Taylor leads the Chargers over the Chiefs

What are the best three bets for this week?

Eagles (+1.5)

Giants (+5.5)

Cowboys (-4.5)

What’s a game you didn’t get heavy on but are afraid you could go off…

Washington and Arizona.  McLauren having a great game bothers me.

What’s the deepest position this week?

Running Back.  Hands down.

Food?  Beverages?  What’s on the menu this week in the Renner house?

No Saints game on Sunday this week so just blah.  Not sure yet.

Final Thoughts?

We Prowl.

We Eat.

We Kill.