Man oh man. You follow Baseball long enough and you see something you would have never imagined. How about a 29-9 score which hadn’t happened in something like 80 years? How about a player hitting 3 HR in a game for the second time in exactly one week? How about that player being in my Mt. Rushmore despite batting 7th in the order and being Adam fricken Duvall? And yet…. We didn’t take down a million bucks? I guess everyone is all focused on their NFL drafts. I’ve already got my NFL analysis for the week mostly wrapped up and will get to my article by Saturday — for now, we keep at the Baseball.
Both sites have reduced the contest sizes today as expected and hopefully just for tonight. It’s only a 6 game slate on FD and DK, locking at 6:40 PM EST.
WEATHER
Baltimore at Yankees is heavy risk of PPD
If this game does play, I don’t see a need to look at many options although those Orioles are playing well and Cole hasn’t been dominant all season quite yet…. So it’s worthy of a flyer if you want.
Gerrit Cole is pitching for the Yankees against a hot Orioles lineup and with lots of PPD/Rain concerns. I am more not writing him up because of the PPD/rain concerns than the match-up.
Chris Paddack
This is a heavy chalk pivot off Sonny Gray who should be the highest SP1 if Gerritt Cole is rained out as anticipated. I will ride Paddack at home against the Giants despite them being an improved offensive club this season. Some reasons why and they have nothing to do with analytics. First off, the Cubs and Bauer were chirping so much last night that I believe the Cubs bats will come out and punish Gray for Bauers cockiness. Second off, do you really trust the Reds to win again and the Giants to beat up on the Padres? Me neither. Paddack will win and he’s coming off a good start after a rough stretch so I expect this to be his best game of the season tonight.
Josh Fleming
Let’s get a little weird tonight? Fleming looks to be a middle of the road lefty who has some viability at times and in a way reminds me of heavier Danny Duffy. So far he has been fairly good and he’ll get a bad Boston lineup tonight which shifts down into Tropicana Field where they should be limited even further. This feels like a spot where he can finally get through 6 innings and with Cole likely PPD it opens up this pitching slate quite a bit in my mind to take some gambles.
Outside the Box
Fleming is the outside the box play today along with fading Sonny Gray.
There’s no Braves/Marlins game tonight that is going to shoot the moon so just get that out of your minds right now. This is an even spread slate and the Dodgers + Phillies + Padres are your three “GOOD” teams facing bad teams today. So obviously one of them is your core anchor depending upon where you find salary construction to be most beneficial on different sites.
LA Dodgers
AJ Pollock, Cody Bellinger
This is the team I feel I gotta have today. It’s really the only great stadium to attack with Os/Yanks in rain spot. They get Bumgarner so the attention will be locked in on both sides and we know he is a homer machine now. Bellinger will go yard here and depending on the lineup we should lock in one of the Dodger RH bats such as Pollock or Taylor.
Cincinnati vs Chicago Cubs
Nick Castellanos + Ian Happ, Kyle Schwarber, Javy Baez
The Wind is blowing in and two pitchers with decent metrics are on the mound. Sign me up for this crazy play tonight. I loooove Nick Castellanos for the Reds but he’s the main one off in a game where as I mentioned above you should look at the Cubs to bounce back and get to Sonny Gray tonight.
San Diego
Austin Nola, Fernando Tatis, Wil Myers
They would be the third simply because the Giants pen is bad.
CATCHER
- JT Realmuto … Back in Miami.
- Austin Nola
- Wilson Contreras
FIRST BASE
- Rhys Hoskins
- Joey Votto – Hey! It’s his birthday! How about that ….
SECOND BASE
- Jean Segura … Only guy I am comfortable with at 2B tonight.
THIRD BASE
- Eugenio Suarez
- Kris Bryant
SHORTSTOP
- Javy Baez
- Fernando Tatis Jr.
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Nick Castellanos
- Wil Myers
- Mookie Betts … With no Sonny Gray for me tonight and Cole likely PPD, we’re gonna have money for either Mookie or Tatis or both… Get one.
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Kyle Schwarber
- Jesse Winker
- Mookie Betts
- Mike Yaszremski
OUTFIELD – Value
- Kole Calhoun – Most upside of all the value plays today.
- Manny Margot
- Randy Arozarena … This kid has come out scorching and will be hitting second, is dirt cheap and combined with Margot is all the value one could ever need. Only problem is, we don’t really need it.
- Hunter Renfroe
- Adam Haseley
- Nick Castellanos – OF – Reds – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- JT Realmuto – C – Phillies
- Javier Baez – SS – Cubs
- Kris Bryant – 3B – Cubs
- Hunter Renfroe – OF – Rays