Tough to be on some good teams last night and just the wrong bats for me personally.
We look at a good mid week slate tonight with quite a few offensive spots and some a game which I see as bad chalk (LAA/TEX)
WEATHER
No games appear to have any PPD risk tonight due to weather.
Roof likely closed in Texas
Oracle Park burning down
Roof likely open in Arizona
…. wait… what?
Yep. Oracle Park (San Francisco) is currently fine but the entire sky is Orange/Brown and the air quality has to be put into question. I’d say this game is at risk of PPD due to … a … um … well, a gender reveal party….
In a normal season we wouldn’t be paying up for pitching in September anymore. We don’t pay for pitching in April and we don’t pay for pitching in September and there’s various reasons why for that. This isn’t a normal season so I am still going to look at the studs going today but I’m also a little cautious down the stretch about forcing in higher $ guys who are projecting to be pitching come October… Just food for thought.
Trevor Bauer
The difference in price between Bauer and Darvish today isn’t that big of a deal in my mind. So it comes down to which guy in this game with winds blowing in again you trust more and for me that is Bauer. Which, for anyone who has read me over the years is pretty much the least shocking thing considering I am just not a Darvish fan. That said, Yu has been fantastic and is equally good but there’s a few pitch type aspects in this game tonight which favor Bauer and so I will go there. The Cubs do walk more than the Reds, but Bauer is always going over 100 pitches, so that’s not a concern today.
Dane Dunning
I still do not trust Dane Dunning over the long haul but this is a very ideal spot to like the White Sox young pitcher. He’s going to get the run support tonight from their lineup against Brubaker and he’s getting so much swinging strikes that I believe he’ll get enough strikeout points through 5 innings to easily lock him in as your SP2 on DraftKings today.
Zach Davies
I’m not confident Davies will get close enough to Bauer or Darvish, but he’ll be your SP1 pivot off both of them today. No reason for Davies to not be a popular play on both sites against a Rockies team who has one killer batter (Arenado) who yes slapped me in the face last night for recommending him in PETCO and then fading him last night. So lets keep this between us tonight and look at Davies against a team he should profile well against tonight and hope ‘nado isn’t angry. The 5PM local start time should benefit the pitchers in this game.
Outside the Box
Nobody
I guess you can make a case to stack Bauer/Darvish together and go Mariners value, but it seems very difficult on DK
There’s honestly quite a few spots tonight which feel like they are good but the one which is not is the game in Texas between Anaheim and the Rangers — which has the highest total on the board and sticks out like an easy fade tonight.
LA Dodgers
Mookie Betts and Corey Seager
Right back to Chase Field with another bad RHP on the mound tonight for Arizona. Hard to overlook the Dodgers again today after it was mostly Gavin Lux who did the damage last night.
Chicago White Sox
Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, Luis Robert, Nomar Mazara
This is a game that screams 10 runs from the visiting inter-league team. J.T. Brubaker is striking out nearly 30% of RH batters but folks that’s fools gold in the data. This breaks tonight on him and as you know the entire White Sox lineup has power. I was expecting Nomar Mazara to hit one out last night and will go right back to that well tonight.
New York Mets
Brandon Nimmo, Dominic Smith, Jeff McNeil
Jorge Lopez is a one trick pony and that one trick is absolutely NOT getting out a left handed heavy lineup like the Mets have.
Sneaky game of the day
Giants vs Mariners … The Giants against a lefty with the wind blowing out seems like a great play today for certain but The Mariners are extremely good looking tonight to me against Tyler Anderson and the Giants bullpen. Dylan Moore is playing decent baseball right now and has a +.200 ISO split with 46% hard contact rate and is destroying change-ups along with Sam Haggerty. This is by far Anderson’s worst pitch and I expect Seattle to be a very low owned team today that has a great game.
CATCHER
- Jorge Alfaro
- Chance Sisco
- Luis Torrens
FIRST BASE
- Matt Olson
- Christian Walker … Does well vs LA/Kershaw
- Josh Bell … Decent night last night, riding that he turns it on here down the stretch.
- Austin Slater
SECOND BASE
It’s revenge of the second basemen night!
- Muncy, Max – can be 3B on DK
- Ozzie Albies is back!
- Jeff McNeil – Wooo, nice price on both sites (3B on FD)
THIRD BASE
- Brian Anderson – Stop walking and hitting him Atlanta, you jerks!
- Dylan Moore
- J.D. Davis
SHORTSTOP
- Corey Seager
- Tim Anderson
- Marcus Semien
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Mookie – Primarily FD because of cost on DK
- Dominic Smith
- Adam Duvall
- AJ Pollock
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Starling Marte
- Luis Robert
- Brandon Nimmo
- Marcell Ozuna
OUTFIELD – Value
- Darin Ruf
- Jon Berti
- Corey Seager – SS – Dodgers – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Donovan Solano – 2B – Giants
- Dylan Moore – 3B – Mariners
- Dominic Smith – OF – Mets
- Christian Walker – 1B – Diamondbacks
- Luis Robert – OF – White Sox
- Adam Duvall – OF – Braves
- Chance Sisco – C – Orioles
- BONUS …. Brian Anderson – 3B – Marlins