NFL Notes – Week 7

Eagles (TNF)

TOTAL – 43.5

• Final score, Eagles 13, Giants 10

• Eagles probably start slow in this game again and the whole world is making fun of Carson Wentz.  Giants defense looks good early on, low scoring first half.
• Wentz throws a touchdown to Richard Rodgers.  He’s the 2nd TE right?
• Carl from South Philly catches 6 for 37 yards, maybe gets in the box.  If he gets in the box he is a sneaky play.  Could leave game early though due to cramps as I don’t think he’s in game shape yet.
• Devonta Freeman scores in Philly, for some reason that feels like a thing.
• Second half has fireworks.
• Daniel Jones is a one trick pony and that trick involves a turnover.
• Eagles D secures the win late after some fireworks.
• 27-26, Eagles win.  That’s probably a bit high, more like 23-20 Eagles win.

EARLY GAMES (7)

Titans

TOTAL – 51.5

• Steelers production will be through the air – it has to be.
• This is an under game.
• Eric Ebron 18 yard touchdown catch.
• Not shocked if Chase Claypool does it again, same as previous week.
• Dont know what to make of JJSS at this point – should trade him.
• Pittsburgh is a good team with good line backers.
• Jonnu wont do it.
• Henry might pound one in, 80 yards and a touchdown.
• Dont need to go there.
• Not shopping here for DFS.
• Think Tannehill makes a mistake and PITT wins.
• Boswell 4 or 5 FG.

GAME:

• Make up game due to COVID PPD and when it was first on the radar it was going to be Chase Claypool sneaky chalk week, but it never happened.  Now he’s no longer sneaky chalk.
• Third straight home game for the Titans.  That’s something I don’t love since they have won the first two.
• Both teams just had big injuries.  Devin Bush & Taylor Lewan.

STEELERS:

• If JuJu is healthy it’s JuJu on the road week.
• James Conner should have had 2 TD vs Browns and they realize he cannot handle the full workload by himself so the entire RB situation is hard to trust.
• Steelers TE?  Vance McDonald?  Oh, Eric Ebron!
• Eric Ebron:  5 catches, 61 yards and 1, maybe 2 touchdowns.
• Benny Snell gets 50 yards and a touchdown on the ground.
• Ben in Tennessee to me has bad memories.  I see 2 INT

TITANS:

• Titans games have been high scoring every week since week one.  They’re definitely due for a lower scoring game and this could be it – however every game which is close with competent offenses is shooting out.  So you need parts of this game.  Just not sure what from Tennessee outside of the obvious Henry.  Don’t like A.J. Brown.  Can’t like him at all.
• Taylor Lewan injury is a BIG deal.  They were horrible at pass protection when he was out before.  Bush injury for Pittsburgh could be a problem for Steelers D.
• Lots of question marks surrounding this game.  It’s a good game, so I don’t mind touching a part, but I think it’s the pivot plays like Ebron and maybe Steelers Defense if they aren’t priced up.
• I also feel like teams who have 3 straight home games never win all 3 – which is what the Titans have.

FINAL:

• I like Steelers to win.  Wouldn’t bet it though.
• Pittsburgh 24, Tennessee 16.  Finally a Titans under.
• Henry under 150 yards and 0 touchdowns.  Don’t laugh.
• Gotta love Eric Ebron though.

Washington

TOTAL – 49

• Zeke always scores in Washington
• Zeke always scores in Washington
• No doubt about it.
• When he fumbled 2nd time, oh my god I feel bad for next weeks opponent, not knowing it was Washington and high regard for Washington front 7.
• Zeke cash game play, not a high ceiling
• 100 yards and a TD is very feasible for Zeke.
• Terry McLauren does very well at home.
• Definitely see him getting in the box
• Dallas D is still in shambles.
• McLauren has a very nice day and scoring
• Also see Cooper scoring…
• Scoring in the game, not ceiling game.
• Zeke cash game play
• Terry McLauren GPP game

DALLAS:

• Tony Pollard scores.  24 yard screen pass from Dalton, right to left, top of the field, cuts back and waltzes into the end zone. Pollard is an MME mix into a few lineups play only on DK.  But that negates Elliott.
• Dallas has to get it done via screen game.  Short/under neath type stuff.
• Could see a Dallas special teams or defense score
• Nothing else.

WASHINGTON:

• Terry McLauren sighting.  Scary Terry chalk play of the week who doesn’t explode but does enough.  For some reason Bradberry did not shadow him in first half last week.  Then they moved him into slot to hide.  Against Dallas slot cornerbacks he should absolutely feast.  Expect him to be very popular.  I will expose myself to him on DK.  Wait, that sounds wrong.
• Not seeing fireworks here.  Dallas defense holds enough and they play conservative on offense because Washington D-Line gives them fits.
• Scary Terry gotta be a DK play this week.
• Not sure how he doesn’t finish with 7 for 80 and he has that big play potential too in this game.

FINAL:

• I couldn’t tell you who wins.  Feels like Washington does.
• Pollard over 13 DK points.
• McLaurin over 15 DK points
• DST touchdown in this game somewhere.  Whichever team gets it, wins the game.
• Nobody is a FD play

Jets

TOTAL – 48

• This is a shootout
• Scoring in this game
• Nobody will set it coming – John Brown catches one
• Devin Singletary catches a screen pass for a TD
• Josh Allen runs one in too.  Thats 3x for Allen.
• Jets keep up on the other side.
• Jets are going to keep up.  Perriman with yards.
• Crowder definitely scores.
• Buffalo D is struggling versus Chiefs on intermediate routes
• Crowder to score.
• Not shocked if Jeff Smith scores.  Up and down player.
• Definitely points in this game.
• Nugget on the Jets side that could be DK Flex.
• Josh Allen no doubt about it recommended.

BILLS

• This should be a Josh Allen, Cole Beasley special.
• It’s a Josh Allen get right game.  Easy completions, lots of running the ball.
• Get in and get out.  However….
• There will be a bomb to Stefon Diggs.  He finishes over 100 yards.
• Bills get up and then just run out the clock in the second half.
• Love Diggs, don’t need to force it though, but love Diggs for one big play
• Zack Moss over Singeltary for DFS stack.
• Milli-maker play only if the Jets decide to just lay down and get Gase/Gregg fired and Buffalo wants to really run it up.

JETS

• Jets offense won’t do jack shit.
• Ah… Yeah, no. Dont play Crowder.  Not worth it.

FINAL

• Not a back and forth game so it plays out like Lions-Jags.
• Not a DFS exposure game, but Bills side alone will “get there”

at Saints

TOTAL – 51

• Carolina side of the ball
• Dont see how Saints are going to stop Robby Anderson, no idea how they stop Robby Anderson.  He definitely catches a long one for a score.  This could be a very good wide receiver week.
• Ian Thomas scores, dont think you need him though.
• Which means Bridgewater has 2, cash game recommendation.
• Teddy 5th or 6th QB, probably not going there.
• Saints side
• How do you not love the Running game?
• Problem is – Kamara catches screen for a TD.
• Both Kamara/Murray controlling the game on the ground.
• Not a time of possession thing for Saints, moving so quickly that you like the passing attack.
• Gotta like the over in this game.
• Murray and Kamara in a lineup somehow.  Murray 70/TD
• Kamara 140 total yards and a TD
• 70 rush, 70 recv.  for AK41.
• Robby Anderson scores, Ian Thomas scores.
• Moving as if its a shootout.
• Dont see Saints doing much through the air.
• Could also be Taysom Hill running one in.
• Carolina to cover.
• Definitely going to be back and forth.
• Dom does not like D.J. Moore.

• Game to be played in the Superdome with no fans.  Giddy up.
• Flex your nuts game for Sean Payton
• Not just because of Matt Rhule, but also Joe Brady, Panthers OC.  Who Payton said was making a mistake when he left the Saints to go to LSU and then was the first hire that Rhule made after Rhule had spent time in New Orleans with Baylor before their Bowl game.
• Rhule is obsessed with Payton and he duped Payton last year by getting to use the Saints facility for Baylor days before being hired by Carolina and Payton was impressed with Rhule.
• Panthers hire Brady, sign Teddy, Kirkwood, Eli Apple, Tommy Lee Lewis – attempted to steal Tommy Stevens in the draft and the Saints had to trade for him when nobody was going to draft him.  There’s not bad blood but there’s an obsession here.  Payton doesn’t give a shit about Tampa or Atlanta anymore, this is the new rivalry.  Rhule has built a foundation that mirrors New Orleans and had 7 years to make it work.  Saints get this game off a BYE and have been toying with where the game would be played (LSU/Superdome).
• This game is circled.  Its a flex your nuts game.
• Lattimore will cover Robbie Anderson, which is good because he cannot cover Moore or Samuel.  I assume Jenkins is back which helps but DJ Moore on the turf is still going to give the Saints problems
• DJ Moore 8-160-2 potential in this game.  If Samuel plays, he scores too.
• But, uh.  How do you not play Michael Thomas?
• Michael Thomas scores on a slant (duh), breaks tackle and gets into end zone.
• Michael Thomas has 8-130-2.  Brees has a great game.
• I feel like speed is a problem for the Panthers secondary, so i see Marquez Callaway on a big catch and run wide open down the middle of the field just breaking away from everyone for a 60 yard touchdown.
• If this game was up in LSU it would have been Thomas and move on, since it’s in the Superdome and the Saints defense is playing shitty without fans (I was wrong on this) we gotta expect a shootout.  Saints should not be 7.5 point favorites, that’s too much.  Also first 1PM home game of the season for Saints, which means defense likely plays like ass for a while, but I do think they generate 2 turnovers which seals it for them.
• Notice I didn’t say Kamara who has seemingly always scored against the Panthers.  I don’t see him busting off a huge running game.  Saints will get Thomas the ball in a boring game.  Saints will HAVE to get Thomas the ball in a shootout.  Thomas is going off this week.  Kamara will be just ok.
• oh and Josh Hill scores.

FINAL

• Love a Drew Brees, DJ Moore, Michael Thomas CORE
• Brees will have 300 yards and 2 touchdowns.
• Thomas is healthy and he’s in fine game shape
• Payton won’t limit him, he’s going to have him all over the place.

Texans

TOTAL – 56

• Precision game, won’t shoot the moon even though it sounds sexy
• Packers control this game wire to wire.
• Namely one reason is Jahir Alexander has shown up like Tre White did last year and Will Fuller wont get a god damn thing.
• Devante Adams catches 2 TD but only 70 yards.  He wont go ham 3 TD and 100 yards.  2 TD but under 70 yards.
• Get right game.  Aaron Jones runs one in.  TD and 60.
• Baktiari injury.  In and out.
• Houston really bad and Watson is throttled.
• 31-10 packers win.  34-10 Packers win.  4 FG for Green Bay.
• Adams will not get 100 yards receiving.  Targets wont be there.
• 5 or 6 targets, catches all of them for 60 and 2 TD.
• Nothing for the Texans.
• At Houston.

PACKERS

• Green Bay running backs accumulate lots of yardage, which negates Rodgers as a must own, but one has to think he tries to throw 3+ touchdowns?
• But I’m playing Thomas over Adams, so that’s an easy call.
• Not an Adams game.
• How the hell is Houston going to score?
• Which brings the Green Bay RB into play, however if they’re up in the 4th it’s going to be Dillon.
• Rodgers throws 3 red zone touchdowns.  One to a TE.  One to Williams and one to MVS or Adams.  Finishes under 300 yards passing.

TEXANS

• Nothing

FINAL

• Green Bay wins 30-13.  No idea how Houston scores 13.
• I kind of think the Green Bay defense is a good play here.
• I don’t think this is close.
• Because I don’t see Houston doing much this is a fade game.

Bengals

TOTAL – 51

• Extreme Kareem Hunt chalk day.
• Kareem 100 yards and a score.  He hits value, not a smash spot.
• Austin Hooper is going to score.
• Better feeling on Hunt than Mattison last week
• Tee Higgins has a catch, not sure what he does with it.  Does he Fumble?  Score?  Throw it into the stands???
• Heavy dose of Joe Mixon to no avail.  Wont yield value.
• Not liking game.  Browns win, 24-13.
• Myles Garrett is going to eat this game.
• Definitely see Myles Garrett getting a couple sacks, forced fumble too.

BROWNS

• Kareem Hunt a logical recommendation in this game, but D’Ernest Johnson finally makes an appearance for 40-50 yards.
• Browns try to come in and get the hell out without getting more injuries.  They have two more games until their BYE.  They’re really banged up and I think they came out of the PIT game realizing they’ve got another level to get too however they left the game feeling like they can get there.  In a weird way I sensed they are trending up after that game and not down.
• Lots of running plays in this game.  Game moves along quickly.

BENGALS

• Bengals run the ball a ton because they do not want to get Burrow killed, that’s been proven three weeks in a row now.  Burrow knows this too.
• I can see Mixon just getting it done again simply off volume.  He is this years Leonard Fournette.  Not much YPC, but 20+ touches and he’s always safe simply based upon volume and when facing teams who give up passes to RB he has to be considered.  Don’t know if that’s Cleveland though?

FINAL:

• I’m not seeing the motivation from either team to have a shootout.
• The TNF game was a shootout no?  This one has to go under.
• If the total is above 50 tease the under.
• No DFS plays outside of the RB being just ok based on volume.

Falcons

TOTAL – 56.5

• Dom likes Marvin Jones, Marvin Jones, Marvin Jones
• Battle of the Bulldogs here too.
• Marvin Jones is catching 6 to 8 balls, it’s his turn.
• In the box once if note twice.
• Danny Amendola catches a bunch between the 20’s
• Not gonna play it –> Surely Gurley is going to score and 80 yards rushing.  Todd Gurley definitely scores.
• Not shocked if Gurley has 100 all purpose yards.  Mid 6’s consider him.
• Russell Gage scores.
• Is Stafford going to get the third TD to Amendola or KennyG?
• Jones, Gurley and Stafford in the conversation.
• Ryan ok but not last week.
• Marvin Jones is this week’s Justin Jefferson.

GAME:

• Desmond Trufant revenge game!
• Both teams take the air out of the ball in this game.

LIONS:

• That said, all the D’Andre Swift hype in Georgia and here comes Kenny Golladay
• Kenny Golladay will have 5 catches and a touchdown.  Don’t know how many yards he has to have.
• Lions restored confidence.  I said they would go on a little run out of the BYE and so I have to like them in this game.
• It’s Golladay, Golladay.  Swift will be alright.  He won’t suck, but just alright.
• They won’t kick AP to the curb just yet but Swift is the better 3rd down receiving back and against Atlanta that can be fruitful.

FALCONS:

• Really liking a Hayden Hurst appearance wide open for a touchdown for the Falcons, who will do what everyone else has done and try to run on Detroit alot with Gurley.
• I respect the Lions secondary enough to not pay for Julio and Ridley.  And again, I expect the air to be taken out of the ball.

FINAL:

• Lions win, it’s not a shootout.  Hayden Hurst, Kenny G.
• Although so far I am lacking in the RB department for this week.

Cardinals

TOTAL – 55

• Pretty clear cut, not a stackable week.
• Pockets of games (Gurley/Jones), two other guys from another game, etc…
• Two names
• All the Chris Carson and all the DeAndre Hopkins
• D-Hop and Carson
• No doubt about it.
• Carson on one side, D-Hop on the other.
• Coming off BYE, AZ secondary playing well and getting gashed on the ground.
• Carson left, Carson right.
• 110 rushing, 30 receiving, 2 TD for Carson, well rested.
• No question mark on him losing carries.
• D-Hop will get his.
• Possession receivers tear up Seattle.
• 8-120-1 for Hopkins when he won’t be heavily owned.

GAME THEORY

• Get this game wrong and you are dead.  This is all about game theory.
• First thought before the Arizona game on MNF was, oh boy, this is a rushing QB against Seattle and Russell Wilson in Arizona, back and forth fireworks.
• Kyler is obvious.
• Kyler is so fricken obvious.
• How does Kyler fail?
• How?
• Is this Aaron Jones/Ronald Jones contrarian play?  Could Seattle just take the air out of the ball and keep Kyler on the sidelines by running the ball a ton.
• There’s no sneaky analysis on this game.  It is what it is.
• You are either in or out.  Pick a side and go with it.
• I want to not stack it.  Something about Arizona 3 straight road games + MNF and having to come back home against divisional opponent screams bad game for them.

SEATTLE

• Prefer Carson or their WR over Wilson

ARIZONA

• How the hell does Kyler not get 30 points?
• Do not play the Arizona running backs.  That’s all I got.

FINAL

• In or out.  Make a stand.
• Although I think there is merit to playing Chris Carson or Kyler Murray based on game flow.  Just one of them.

Chargers

TOTAL – 49

• Like Jags side of the ball even less now
• 150 rushing yards and 1 score out of Joshua Justin Jackson Kelly
• Not going to force Herbert to air it out
• Chargers D highly recommended, not a ton of turnovers.
• Points have to come limiting Jags < 10
• Gotta consider LAC defense
• Good luck at running back.
• No point on Keenan
• Cant like anything on JAX side

JAGUARS

• Nothing

CHARGERS

• Josh Kelly, please don’t suck?
• Chargers D will be chalky.
• Makes sense.  Should get 3+ sacks and a turnover.
• Ingram might be back.
• That’s it, move on.

FINAL

• Chargers RB/DEF.
• Unders in SoFi Stadium.

Patriots

TOTAL – 45.5

• New England wins 38-28, very high scoring affair
• Don’t see a path where Cam doesn’t go crazy
• Outside WR getting best of SanFran, good for Harry
• 25 yard TD down the seam to Harry, front pylon TD
• Cam runs one in, Edelman catches one
• Cam accounts for 3 TD
• Jerrick McKinnon screen for TD.  RB play a role.
• Shanny will get ball out of JimmyG hands fast
• Ayiuk catches a few balls on screens.
• RB get involved.
• Dante Pettis – 42 yard TD
• High scoring game, Cam naked strong consideration.

NINERS

• Nothing

PATRIOTS

• I cannot get New England defense out of my head.
• I see New England’s defense scoring twice
• New England is going to control the clock with 7 minute drives and DARE Jimmy G to beat them.  Shannahan’s scheme won’t confuse Belichek this time and he’ll make Jimmy G beat them straight up.  Which he won’t.

FINAL

• Looooooooooooove the Patriots and their defense.
• Tank or no tank, Bill wants this game.
• Do you have the guts to play Rex Burkhead or Damien Harris?

Broncos

TOTAL – 49.5

• If Watkins is out this is a Mecole Hardman game
• Perfect perfect perfect value play highly recommended who shit the bed (0 catches) comes out and catches 2 bombs
• No Kelce
• Could see Reek catching one as well, once they are up 24-0 they cruise control and get the hell out.
• Scary to invest in fireworks if you go Kelce or Reek.
• Mecole comes through at a nice price-tag
• Can see Noah Fant catching a lot on the other side
• 6-80 maybe TD.
• Mecole no doubt about it on a 40 yard bomb, lock button.

GAME

• Denver cannot keep up.  Not a shootout.  Not a blowout though.

CHIEFS

• I looked ahead, Chiefs next game is home vs Jets.  Do the math on that one.
• Reid/Mahomes feed Tyreek a squeeky wheel touchdown this week or next.
• Between this game or the next one, Tyreek Hill has a 120 yard, 2 TD game coming.  I pray it’s next week because I have enough WR for this week.

BRONCOS

• They’ll find a way to stay in the game.  More Field Goals!

Raiders

TOTAL – 53.5

• Is Vegas healthy on the O-Line?
• If so, I think Josh Jacobs has a big game
• If not, this could get ugly for Vegas.
• Chris Godwin running very far, very fast for Tampa.

Rams

TOTAL – 46

• WHUT?
• Oh man.  Aaron Donald just murdered Nick Foles in his sleep.
• RIP Foles
• It was nice knowing you