Panthers (TNF)

OU:  51.5

• Teddy plays well, accounts for 2 touchdowns both in the red zone.  But he’s around 240 yards passing.  Id say final stat line of 227 passing and 2 touchdowns very likely.
• One touchdown to Robbie Anderson.  One touchdown to Chris Manhertz
• I could see Matt Ryan having a ridiculous game through the air.
• Lots of it to Julio Jones.  12 catches, 148 yards for Julio, no touchdowns.
• Julio is the easy captain play.
• Carolina wins though.  Sooo, how?  Gotta be strong game from Mike Davis scoring and Falcons making red zone mistakes.
• Falcons dominate the game on offense but find a way to lose.
• Would have been an elite main slate game.  I like the over.

Lions

OU:  50.5

• First thought is TY Hilton scores, finally.
• Jonathan Taylor is going to be recommended, struggling to support it now and maybe personal opinion as opposed to the right decision.
• Colts OL is better than Falcons OL
• Shot for TY Hilton, heavy load for Jonathan Taylor
• Colts are who they are, plays are not explosive but Hilton catches 1
• Det – Would immediately gravitate towards the air attack
• Gotta watch Det over the course of the week
• Could see Lions going many different ways, momentum on Lions
• See Indy winning game, but Lions could be overlook spot.
• DeAndre Swift definitely scores via the pass.

• Colts come out of the BYE and spread it around their RB.  Taylor is gonna get 12 fantasy points and the other RB (Wilkens?) will be involved quite a bit here.  It’s just a mess to avoid.
• You want to say TY Hilton, but can you really feel good about trusting that?  He doesnt hit 100 yards ever since Luck is gone, so why bother?
• Has the makings of a good competitive game, but I think it is fools gold for DFS purposes.
• Colts dominate the time of possession.  Colts win.
• Not liking much on the Lions side of the ball, dont think they’re terrible but cant expect anything big.  Although Stafford no doubt gets over 300 yards passing.  Has to spread it around because they won’t be able to run with any effectiveness.  But problem is they won’t have the ball enough to make this a must own spot.  All their yards are through the air to everyone and the pricing on Golladay will justify not using him.

Browns

OU: 54.5

• Has the makings of a good game
• Henry Ruggs is screaming at Dom.  Definitely catching a 40 yarder.
• Scoring in the upper portion of your TV screen.
• Dom really likes a RB here.  Really like Kareem Hunt again.
• Hunt breaks one, scores a 30 yarder on the ground, he gets the ball 20 times.
• Two different paths here.
• Raiders open it up and win the game in a shootout or a decently scoring game but the Browns control this one and control TOP on Kareem Hunt
• 30 yarder on the ground for Hunt, 20 carries.
• Gotta look at him
• No Waller, not feeling Waller, not even seeing Jacobs.
• No Renfroe

• You will need one of Jacobs, Ruggs or Waller.  My feeling is to go with Waller, but Ruggs is going to finish with 80 yards receiving.  But it’s overall a big reception day for Waller, just sitting down in the middle of the field catching the ball over and over.
• Hunter Renfrow likely catches a bunch of 3rd down conversions as well, could wind up vulturing a touchdown.
• I don’t see this being a spot where either team scores over 30, but it’s a DK fantasy gold mine
• I could be talked into Carr, but I just don’t see Cleveland airing it out to make this a shootout.
• Waller, Ruggs, Renfrow, one of them is the must own.  Jacobs just ok.
• All the Kareem Hunt
• Cleveland has a BYE coming up and Baker isn’t going to do it again, but the feeling I had coming out of the Pittsburgh loss applied as they have confidence and they think they belong despite losing to the Steelers.  They finally know how to win games.
• This is going to be Kareem Hunt’s day to shine.
• One of the TE (Njoku might come back in this game?) score the other touchdown.
• But Hunt has 2 TD and 130 all purpose yards.
• Again, there’s points here, but neither team scores 30.
• 28-27 final score.

Dolphins

OU: 44.5

• Robert Woods – BOB in Eastern Time Zone
• Dont like Goff on the road, not tearing it up
• Bob Woods
• Very close game, Rams are going to win but based on the Monday game people will look at this game and call it a let down even though they play well enough.  Miami played better than expected because of Rams perception from Monday?
• Miami will be in it.  Bob Woods, Bob Woods, D-Henderson runs one in but do not need him though – not sure you need him.
• Mike Gisecki on the other side – take a look at him.  See how he moves.
• Tua at QB Dom likes Gisecki even more.
• Dom likes Gisecki even more.
• Bob Woods, 9 for 95 performance and that’s it.
• Bob Woods might be this weeks Terry McLaurin from last week.
• Rams win, Miami covers 23-21.

• I cannot pull much out of this game to make it relevant.
• Robert Woods sure, but I doubt Miami is going to come out with fireworks right away behind Tua and neither RB situation is one that I want to love in a mediocre match-up.
• This is a fade.  No reason for extra noise.  No reason to be perfect.  We don’t do MME, so why should I care about this game one single bit?
• Not going to try and be the smartest person in the room on this game.

Packers

OU:  55.5

• Lower scoring game here.
• Robert Tonyan is going to score again … Definitely, might not catch it but will get it.
• Player of the game — Alexander Mattison
• Player of the game no doubt is Alexander Mattison … IF Dalvin Cook is playing, it’s not Dalvin Cook.  If Mattison is playing and Cook is still out Dom loves it.  Loves it.
• Even though it’s a divisional game, last week was Rodgers EGO game versus Houston.  That was an EGO game off the week before vs Tampa.
• Last week big EGO game.  Dont care if its a divisional game, this is a let down game.
• If Mattison is playing start him.  Love Minnesota controlling game through Minnesota.  If Cook plays no feedback there.
• No doubt player who is gonna score for Green Bay is a 42 yard touchdown for Green Bay.  MVS.  Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
• Mattison, MVS, Tonyan to get a touchdown.

• Everything hinges upon Dalvin Cook.  Dalvin Cook owns Lambeau, does he not?
• Yes Adams 100 yards every single week, got it.
• If Aaron Jones is back he limits Adams — this was our Adams mistake.  Two star system and one star out makes the other star automatic.
• Green Bay D is a must to consider if Dalvin Cook is OUT again.
• If Cook is in, then you invest in this game potentially, but that also is determined by Aaron Jones status.
• Probably a better game to identify later in the week but I think Vikings hang around in a lower scoring game than the last time they met.
• …. trusting Dom’s notes here.

Bills

OU: 46

• New England wins this game
• Waters will settle on this game, everyone felt the sky was falling on New England.
• Belichek will make Diggs non existent on this game and New England defense is going to play very well.
• NE going into Buffalo and coming away with a 24-17 win.
• Cant expect a team or player to come out 10 for 30, 3 INT and then come back and throw for 400 yards and 4 touchdowns.

• It’s time for Belichek to figure out what he has going forward, and most of that is on the defensive side of the ball for him to figure out who is in their plans going forward.
• You can chase the Bills here, but I won’t.
• Julian Edelman catches a few balls in buffalo, throws a few too?
• Next

Chiefs

OU:  48

• How do you not play Kansas City defense?
• How do you not play KC defense?
• I think we’re going to get away with one here.
• This is the type of game where we ignore the Quarterback because we expect a blowout but so does public opinion and the QB always gets the production.  Wentz-Mahomes-Lamar doing it every week.
• Get away with it because Bell runs it in.
• Kelce catches a short one, TD.
• Mecole catches a touchdown this week.
• Differentiator – Tyreek Hill scores on an end around.
• 4 TD and only 2 are Mahomes.  Even if he throws a third one, enough points in the game he might not be playing anymore.
• Bell definitely scoring.
• Jets RB – Perine scores.
• Chiefs sacks and pickles.
• Perine and Perriman both get a touchdown
• 38-14 Chiefs.

• So LevBell scores.  Finishes with 70 all purpose yards MAX.  So 13-15 fantasy points CEILING.
• Sam Darnold hits someone or something for a 60 yard bomb touchdown
• But that’s all the Jets get.  This game is what it is.
• Chiefs defense scores again.
• Travis Kelce scores a touchdown but is under 60 yards
• Tyreek Hill?  Does Tyreek break the slate?  I doubt it.  But Tyreek has a 70 yard bomb TD.
• So here’s the bottom line
• Bell scores a touchdown.
• Kelce scores a touchdown.
• Hill scores a touchdown.
• Chiefs defense scores a touchdown.
• And then the game dies.
• Chiefs win 34-13
• It’s a DFS fade.   Nobody is going Adams or Lockett here.

Ravens

OU:  46.5

• Baltimore wins
• Baltimore wins
• Steelers had a very lackluster second half vs Tennessee.
• Peaked in Philly and Ben better at home than road.
• Couple of turnovers w/ Baltimore defense.  Tucker Field Goals.
• Hollywood Brown gets loose in secondary and gets one.
• Baltimore does just enough to to ward off Lamar questions.
• Steelers have a little bit of a let down.
• Ironically, Ju-Ju has a good catch game.
• 27-17 Baltimore win.
• Someone scores in close on a dump pass from Lamar.
• Could be Nick Boyle?   Gus Edwards?
• Ravens secondary plays very well.

• Logic says Ravens take this one and hand Pittsburgh first loss off a BYE.
• Out of nowhere touchdown – JuJu Smith-Schuster.  If I keep hyping it on the road, it will happen.
• Actually.  It’s west coast JuJu.  We need JuJu to go west (which he wont this year).
• Hard to trust much on the Pittsburgh side of the ball, but Ben will finish with 2 passing TD and close to 300 yards somehow.  It wont be pretty, just natural progression through game.  You wont play him.
• There are very few easy button plays this week, so going with Lamar Jackson is actually something I am not against when nobody will have him and this has Ravens flex their muscle “got right, had a bye, ready to explode” potential.
• I like Lamar naked with tanking a gamble on a PIT receiver on the other side.  But really you wouldn’t do any of that on a main lineup, so its a longshot play.  Does the Devin Bush injury show up in this game?
• Lamar is not accurate enough to attack Pittsburgh via the air.  Finishes under 200 yards passing, but the question is can he account for 3 touchdowns (2 rushing) and 100 yards rushing.  I think he can.
• I like Baltimore to win.  27-17, game has sneaky potential though.

Bengals

OU:  52.5

• We have a Jonnu Smith sighting and it’s a long one.
• Derrick Henry gets his.  Not sure you need him.
• His OU for rushing is probably 108.5, he will get 106 and a TD
• Tennessee Defense scores
• That limits the need for Henry to go off, not the capability
• Not liking anything on the other side of the ball (Cincy)
• Scanning, rotating, can’t pull anything on Bengals side.
• Final score 24 or 27 to 6.
• Maybe 31-10 tops.
• Jonnu catches a long one, defense scores, 106 & TD for Henry
• Nothing for Bengals.

• AJ Brown hot streak!  Am I too late?  No, this is too soft of a matchup.  He had a hot streak last year and he’s on one here this year.  He’ll score again and go over 100 yards.
• Love Tannehill-AJ Brown combination.  Whole world will rush to Derrick Henry but AJ Brown is where I would start first.  Not opposed to Henry and Brown, but gotta like AJ Brown.
• Ah, Titans defense could ruin the party…
• I dont see the Bengals keeping up.  Titans in a romp which is 31-14 or 31-17.  More 31-17.
• AJ Brown touchdown.  Derrick Henry touchdown.   Kalif Raymond touchdown.
• Tannehill rushing TD or Titans D scores 4th TD.  Liking Tannehill a lot here either way.
• I assume Mixon plays for Cincinnati.  I see another Tyler Boyd high volume game if he does not.
• AJ Green scores 8 yard TD

Broncos (4PM)

OU:  44.5

• Were the Hunter Henry recommendations a week early?
• Are they going to force Melvin Gordon here?
• Chargers not stopping much on the ground right now
• Gotta like Gordon, gets yards and a touchdown, 75 rush, 22 recv
• Can see Henry catching 5 or 6
• If Gordon is succesful can see Denver winning
• Forgot about Mike Williams
• Yeah, gotta like Mike Williams.  He catches a 50 yard bomb and doesn’t score on that catch.
• Mike Williams and Melvin Gordon guys pulled away here.
• Not sure I see volume on Mike Williams, gotta be efficiency.

• Denver defense pick 6 – I am not sure why but this was my immediate thought on the entire slate.  Just a gut call.
• This is a good game.  This might be the 4PM week and this is a very sneaky game to me.
• Whole world will rush to Herbert side of the ball (I’m not sure who his comp is yet) and I think Drew Lock is going to play well.  I don’t know where or I don’t know how, but this game will go over.  I essentially like the Broncos passing attack so I’ll have to see who is healthy and good to go.  It’s a 4PM only or DK value type spot.
• Will be very nice weather in Denver, mid 60’s.  Game screams back and forth.
• I don’t know enough about the Broncos though and so I gotta research but Keenan Allen or Mike Williams to me are must owns this weekend.  Given Keenan’s volume you gotta imagine he has a fantastic game, but Herbert throwing a 70 yard bomb in the altitude to Mike Williams makes me ponder things.  If he throws a pick 6 that should only benefit him more because I assume the Broncos will try to run it to slow things down and I dont like their ground game even with a Gordon revenge factor.  Lock has to do it
• Fuck it, Mike Williams 2 TD.
• Herbert-LAC WR-DEN WR game stack

Bears

OU:  45.5

• Latavius Murray TD is happening this week
• Very entertaining game and lower scoring
• Murray scores, Kamara — not his week.
• TreQuan scores a 12 yarder (but is it from Taysom?)
• Darrell Mooney scores, a long one down the sideline
• Dom likes David Montgomery to score around the end / swing pass.
• Game goes to OT tied at 23.

• Low(er) scoring game.  Wouldn’t touch the under, but it’s gonna be close.
• Ground and pound Lat Murray.  Murray and the defense.  Murray better carry the ball 15+ times.
• Thomas Morestead will punt.
• Taysom Hill will run a fake punt play too.
• Saints at Ravens 2018 week 6 or so, somewhere in there.  That’s this game-script.
• Saints defensive line has a great game.  5 sacks on defense and Jenkins forces a strip sack on Foles, recovered by DeMario Davis for a defensive touchdown left to right.
• Jimmy Graham scores lone Bears touchdown, finishes with about 50 yards receiving.
• Lots of Lat Murray, lots of Deonte Harris end-arounds.  Lots of Wil Lutz short field goals.
• Murray and quick passing on early downs, Kamara on third down.
• Short passing game for New Orleans.  Stay in 3rd and short, convert first downs.
• Saints FB (Burton) involved, could vulture a touchdown.  Or one of the Hill’s or something like this.
• It should not be Kamara, but considering he has not scored in two straight games and he may only be 10% owned he could be a sharp pick because he’s gotta catch 7 balls again.
• But it should be Murray who is in consideration.
• Love New Orleans defense, don’t like anything on Chicago side of the ball offensively.
• Saints will want to get in and get the fuck out.
• Weather is good.

Seahawks

OU:  54

• Because Deebo is out, San Francisco won’t be able to truly exploit Seattle’s weakness.
• Name me another wide receiver besides Brandon Ayiuk
• Volume will be there for Kittle …. but …. ?
• Dom has 30-45 yarder for Kittle down the seam.
• Dom does not think this game lives up to the hype
• Russ Wilson has a good day, Dom thinks Seattle wins pretty good
• Niners come back down to earth.  Deebo injury is very meaningful.
• Jimmy G has to throw a lot to stay in this game and they’re not able to punch it in the way that Seattle is and by middle of 3rd QTR you realize San Francisco settled for 3 FG and 1 TD…
• Seattle has gotten 3 or 4 TD and its 30-16 start of 4th QTR and game is over….
• DK Metcalf will definitely score but you dont need him.
• David Moore catches one also in this game?
• Can see Greg Olsen catching one too
• Wilson will have 3 TD & 280 yards
• Lots of yards for Kittle, volume of catches, hope he gets in EZ.

• Oh man, how do you not love George Kittle?
• Seattle will want to take him out of the game but they do not have that ability.
• Give me all the D.K. Metcalf
• So yes, both Quarterbacks will get it done, assume Wilson is the smarter play but his price could make it where you dont automatically use him.
• Kittle will have a ton of catches, over 100 yards and hopefully a touchdown.
• DK Metcalf will have a bunch of catches, over 100 yards and DEFINITELY a touchdown
• Kittle and Metcalf and bits and bits and bits….
• 31-30 team with 31 points wins.
• Carlos Hyde is only $5,000 on FanDuel.  I guess you just do it?
• So I am going AJ Brown, DK Metcalf … Hody Tody.
• We probably need a value Quarterback this week.
• Hello Jimmy G.  Helloooooo Jimmmmmyyyyyyyy GGGGGGGGGGGG

Eagles (SNF)

• When does Hockey start?
• Is there a Calgary vs Winnipeg game on Sunday night that I can watch instead?
• CeeDee Lamb scores, just to piss Dom off.
• Zeke and whatever on Eagles side.

Giants

• Huh?
• What?
• Go Giants