Welcome to Week 4 NFL Ambush, a full guide into this weekends NFL DFS Main Slate of action to help you become a better player and find some success.

Week four marks the end of what we consider the first ‘Quarter’ of the NFL season and thus far for The Ambush I have had a little bit of everything week to week.  Each of the three weeks have been wins and last week was a week of high’s and low’s in the Ambush as we saw the only two value WR’s recommended — Tee Higgins and Any Isabella both score two touchdowns, while value RB Joshua Kelley was severely killed by his team playing poorly and he wound up in a horrible game flow situation which resulted in a bad score.

The key to last week however was not Higgins and Isabella, it was Tyler Lockett over D.K. Metcalf.  The Higgins and Isabella calls were great and I could pat myself on the back for those a lot, but in reality a 2% or less owned double touchdown call like that doesn’t always translate into winning if the rest of your CORE lineup doesn’t produce and beat out the obvious chalky plays.

Here’s a few quick tips going into week 4 on the best ways to construct a lineup.

• Do not start with a low owned value player.   This player will wind up putting you over the top but they are not the CORE build of your lineup.
• Start with your CORE build, which is focused on either the must own 3 players you want to have or the game flow build of the lineup (i.e. QB-WR correlation and someone from the other team)
• Don’t assume that you should be stacking (4 or more players) from a single game.  This will result in losing money more than not and if you are building a few lineups by hand you are just blindly building.  If you end up with a game stack as you build the lineup then okay, but don’t force that in to begin with.
• Lock in your defense first.  The first player/team you click in a lineup is always one that your brain trusts and the one position that can really kill you which gets overlooked is Team Defense.
• Three players in a lineup should be highly recommended players.  They need “buzz” associated with them.  Buzz can be players in my article, players in another article on this site, something you heard of on the radio, etc…
• If you are building a 4th or 5th or 20th lineup, completely remove every GAME that was involved in the first lineup you built.  Assume you are wrong if you are doing multiple lineups.

 

Here’s a recap of what this article covers

• This article will cover plays that I am using on my MAIN lineup & what that is being entered into.
• This article will cover plays that I am using on my SECOND tier lineups & what contests those are being entered into.
• This article will cover plays that I am using on my THIRD tier lineups & what contests those are being entered into.
• This article will cover my favorite weekly BETS for the weekend games.
• This article will cover who I feel is chalk and how it should be addressed.
• This article will cover all my NFL thoughts in one spot.

What are The Ambush plays? These are my plays that I feel warrant the most attention for a given week. I’ll generally cover a team or correlation I really think you need in a lineup as well as players who based upon their projected match-up, game flow and salary are ideal plays for the week.  Each week a key Ambush decision is whom to fade and you must be crossing some games or plays off your radar each week and not sweating those fades.

 

 

SLATE INFORMATION

The first thing we must do each Week is understand the landscape of the slate and any injury or weather or miscellaneous information that we need to monitor from the time this article comes out (Saturday’s) until lock on Sunday at 1PM EST.

 

Injuries and Playing Time Concerns

Since my article is being posted on Saturday afternoon’s I am not going to mess with guys who are ruled OUT as of Friday — because you likely already know this by now.  Here’s the notable injuries and my thoughts on the players status as well as the impact of them playing or not.

• DeAndre Hopkins (Cardinals) – He is questionable and it sounds like he will give it a go.  In or out doesn’t change much for me this week as he is not someone I would pay up for this weekend.
• Joe Mixon (Bengals) – Late addition to the injury report with a chest injury.  I he sits then MAJOR boost to Joe Burrow in the passing game.

Nothing else is of any impact to me in terms of what I know right now.

 

Weather Status

Chargers vs Buccaneers – Typical Tampa home game with storms/rain potentially impacting this game.

 

Projected Ownership

The most spread out ownership projections I have seen in quite some time.  I literally think that I have heard justification for almost every single team this week except for maybe Washington as being good plays in DFS.  In some ways this is fantastic because it’s better than weeks when you have 40% ownership at every single position on the top players.  However, I don’t always trust the projections on ownership on weeks like this as we get closer to Sunday everyone winds up on the same plays.

• Alvin Kamara is the highest owned player of the week by far with Michael Thomas being out.  I’ll have more on this below but there’s an obvious pivot if you do not want to play Kamara.
• Quarterback is as deep as it has been all season.  The elite QB’s are not necessarily in smash/must own spots and there’s a bunch of ‘pocket passer’ guys who are gaining some traction this week.  In short, going off the reservation at Quarterback should not kill you this week unless your QB is a total disaster himself.
• There is no single game stack of the week like last week when Dallas-Seattle was the main event game of the week and Detroit-Arizona was the under-card.

 

 

THE AMBUSH PLAYS

Unlike with Baseball, Hockey and College Football I tend to do more than one lineup in NFL.  But I do not jump into MME by any stretch of the imagination as I am still in single entry tournaments and will have a ‘Main’ lineup that stretches across cash, single entry, 3 entry max and multi-entry tournaments.  It’s the lineup where I build out what I view to be the best plays for the weekend and it has a good mix of my Ambush plays.

That said, the five Ambush plays you see weekly from me are usually spread out across three to five lineups.  I prefer FanDuel because it’s only half point PPR, does not have stupid bonuses and the pricing is more balanced in my view.  But the way I play multiple lineups is by rolling my second and third favorite lineups on different sites.  This way I am still able to capitalize on the best tournaments (higher dollar with limited entries) with a single lineup but I get to capitalize on the aspect of spreading out my exposure to different spots.  So when you see me reference something like “TJ Hockenson everywhere” that means I’m rolling him on all the different sites.  But when you see “I will have a lineup with X,Y,Z” that means it’s just a specific lineup that I am rolling that on.  I share this to be transparent and also to hopefully help you balance how to play multiple sites for NFL.

 

FEED YOURSELF

Ambush Play #1 – Zeke Elliott

Running Back is the deepest position this week and it has the chalkiest player in Alvin Kamara, who at only $8,000 on DraftKings is severely underpriced.  But it’s not Kamara who has the “get right” game this week at RB.  Welcome to feed the Zeke week 2020 as Elliott draws a poor Cleveland Browns rush defense and even with a banged up offensive line in front of him should still have the holes and the volume to tear this Browns defense to shreds.  I see lots of big runs for Zeke this week and Mike McCarthy trying to bail out his defense once they’re showing they cannot stop the Browns passing game either as McCarthy feeds Zeke over 20 times en route to a 150 yard rushing day with multiple touchdowns.  Dallas is playing so fast on offense and everyone is blindly trying to play their receivers once again that with lots of other RB in play the best one on the board is going to be only 20% when he should be 50%.

Feed the Zeke.

 

LANDRY IN DALLAS

Ambush Play #2 – Jarvis Landry continues to expose the Dallas secondary

Jarvis Landry has the potential to be so good this weekend that they already have his name up in the ring of honor in Big D.  Oh, wait, that is Tom Landry’s name.  Well, either way, Landry is the next in line to feast on this Dallas secondary.  It has been Robert Woods/Cooper Kupp, Calvin Ridley/Julio Jones, Tyler Lockett/DK Metcalf and now the duo of Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. come into Dallas to run slants and routes the Cowboys secondary simply cannot cope with all day long.  While I expect OBJ to score against Dallas for certain, I see a lot more upside in Jarvis Landry catching more passes and getting over the 100 yard bonus as the primary option for Baker Mayfield this week.  With Kareem Hunt a little banged up there’s even more reason for Landry to get involved in the short passing game for the Browns who I suspect will be greatly benefited from the fast tempo that Dallas loves to play with and more than willing to jump into a shootout.

Landry and OBJ will outperform Lockett and Metcalf this week, with Landry being the WR you needed to have.

 

GO DEEP AT RUNNING BACK

Ambush Play #3 – If your FLEX position isn’t a Running Back, you are asking for trouble

Last week I recommended using four Wide Receivers in your lineups because it was the deepest position on the board.  This week that logic is being applied to Running Backs which if I could would be a position I would play 5 guys in this week.  This isn’t me saying the position has the most upside so much as it is the position where we have the deepest amount of players who are in really good spots this week.  Honestly, I correlate this with the fact that Quarterback seems so spread out and it’s clear that we should lock in our RB’s first and then take some gambles at WR this week.

Don’t build without three Running Back’s on any site this week and make sure that you favor guys who catch the ball on DraftKings versus those who aren’t heavily involved in the passing game on FanDuel.

 

GOLD RUSH

Ambush Play #4 – Golden Tate vs Jalen Ramsey

The position which I have identified as one you can get creative with this week is Wide Receiver because Running Back appears deep and clear cut while the elite WR tier is missing big names like Thomas, Adams, Julio and possibly DeAndre Hopkins.  So we’re essentially seeing lots of scenarios where multiple WR from the same team are being rostered by everyone this week and that allows us to take a few shots here with some guys who can go off for 100+ yards and score.

Insert Mr. Golden Tate as he and the N.Y. Giants will head west to take on the L.A. Rams on the late slate this weekend.  The Rams are in a weird situation as they just played back to back east coast games and will be heading back to the east coast in week 5 as well.  That’s a ton of travel and this creates what sports handicappers love to call an obvious ‘trap’ game at home against the lowly Giants who are adjusting to life without Saquan Barkley once again.  But this will be the second full game for the Giants without Barkley and I think they’ll play well against the Rams this weekend and we know for sure that the Giants aren’t going to do much on the ground so lets go to the air with Tate, who uh, has a little motivation here.

Let me pivot into my TMZ Ambush mode real quick.  You see, Golden Tate is the uncle of Jalen Ramsey’s two kids.  Oh, so that must mean that Ramsey is dating Ramsey’s daughter, no?  Yeah, not so much.  Ramsey WAS dating Tate’s sister and then once he got her pregnant for the second time he broke up with her — for a “Vegas dancer”.  Needless to say, Golden Tate was not so happy and has even publicly stated that Ramsey will have to deal with him soon enough.  So either Tate is going for 120 yards and 2 TD because Ramsey is busy hiding on Darius Slayton or they’re going to get into a massive fight.  One way or another, there’s Gold here and the Rams passing defense has been their Achilles heel to start the season.

 

WEEK FOUR FADES

Ambush Play #5 – The games in Week 4 that I am avoiding the most

This week is a difference between FADES and just games I am not that interested in.  You do not FADE a 2% owned player, so for example, I am not ‘Fading’ The Chargers and Bucs because nobody else is playing them.  That isn’t a fade, that is a spot I am just not on.  A fade would be not playing DeShaun Watson and Will Fuller.

Games I am not interested in

• Chargers at Bucs:  Zero interest
• Colts at Bears:  Jonathan Taylor is going to have a great game but does not out produce enough RB to warrant consideration
• Ravens at Washington:  Ravens are too expensive, no interest in touching.
• Patriots at Chiefs:   I think this is a snooze fest game.

Spots that are popular which I am not on (i.e.  FADE!):

• All Houston Texans not named David Johnson and the Texans Defense – This includes Watson, Fuller and even Brandin Cooks who will catch a big one but we can never trust Cooks anymore.  These are the two slowest teams in the league and both are 0-3 and will be trying to keep it close and win it late.  The Texans are clearly better than the Vikings but they aren’t the same Texans you have thought of in recent years, they’re slower and not a shootout team.
• The Miami Dolphins – You don’t play Fitzpatrick two weeks in a row.
• The Buffalo Bills – The Raiders win.

 

RECAP OF AMBUSH PLAYS

1. Feed The Zeke as the #1 RB this weekend
2. All the Jarvis Landry receptions
3. Capitalize on the depth at Running Back this week in your FLEX spot.
4. Golden Tate, the 4PM Gold Rush Receiver.
5. DFS Week 4 Fades

 

 

QUARTERBACKS

There is a big 5 set of DFS Quarterbacks in 2020:  Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott and Kyler Murray.  If you are not using one of these five guys weekly then you are basically looking for a 20 point performance from your Quarterback and so that is important to remember when evaluating based upon value.   

Russell Wilson

Wilson, Lamar and Kyler will each get over 20 points this week, but none will justify their price.  However, of the three if you want to ride one then consider going Wilson with the sneaky value passing options that I outline below instead of Metcalf and Lockett or just play him naked.  You cannot go wrong in my mind with Wilson, Murray or Lamar this week but again, you won’t regret fading them either.

Gardner Minshew

I am going to trust my gut here this weekend and ride with it.  Through the first three weeks of the season I have gone with Russell Wilson (Week 1), Dak Prescott (Week 2) and Kyler Murray (Week 3).  Let’s be pretty clear here, Gardner Minshew isn’t any of those guys and if he makes this write-up as the #1 Quarterback for me again this season then I’ll just assume COVID has killed half the league and he’s getting to play the Falcons because Minshew is not a guy I trust often.  But he’s getting a Bengals defense which should permit the Jaguars to do whatever they want on offense and is coming off a long TIE game last week while the Jags look to bounce back after a horrible showing vs the Dolphins.  Adding to my decision on Minshew is that both his primary RB are doing a great job catching the ball out of the backfield and I expect the Bengals to move the ball offensively too making this a nice back and forth shootout.

Matt Stafford

Should still be hard for the Lions to run on the Saints as much as they might want to try.  The Lions red zone offense has been dreadful to start the season and the Saints red zone defense has been equally bad, so something will give here and knowing Stafford will get 300 yards passing makes this a reasonable spot to consider taking Stafford, 300 yards and likely 2 touchdowns.  Doubt he has a slate breaking performance though.

 

Just missed my top 3:   Drew Brees

Not touching:   DeShaun Watson, Lamar Jackson

 

RUNNING BACKS

This is the most top heavy position on the slate.

Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys)

Lamb and Cooper got a little banged up last weekend and this is the softest rush defense opponent Dallas has seen all season long.  They likely will not fall drastically behind like they did against Atlanta in their prior home game and that helps Zeke even more.  Zeke will hit the 100 yard bonus on DraftKings and as a home running back he is more of a certainty in my mind to score a touchdown than the fella listed next.

Alvin Kamara (Saints)

Simply put he is is just too cheap on DraftKings at only $8,000.  Without Mike Thomas again he’s consistently catching 5 balls without even sneezing and he has 10+ catch upside every single week because of the style of the Saints offense.  New Orleans is actually getting a BOOST in the passing game with the loss of Andrus Peat at LG, so I expect Brees to have a very solid game this weekend and hit guys not named Kamara in the passing game, but the kid is healthy and tearing up the league right now.  Just play him or pivot to the easiest pivot you will ever get in Latavius Murray and pray for the touchdown variance to slide over to Murray.  The Saints are depleted on defense and should be able to run the ball on the Lions, the question is in the red zone who gets those carries and it’s honestly a 50/50 toss up.  Don’t be shocked if Kamara gets 100 combined yards and 7 receptions while Murray gets a the rushing touchdown.

Kenyan Drake (Cardinals)

I’ve been on Running Backs against the Panthers for a couple years now and getting a RB for a fast tempo team like Arizona makes this an obvious spot to look at once again.  The one thing which really lacks here though is that Drake is not a high volume reception play in this offense and when they get in the red zone it is Kyler Murray who keeps it and punches it in.  I am curious to see if that changes but until it does, he’s going to just be an 80-90 yard guy who is 1 yard TD dependent on Kyler not keeping it.

Joe Mixon (Bengals)

The Bengals offense is very clear to me this week.  Lots of passes to Tyler Boyd and lots and lots and lots of Joe Mixon.  They have come out firing with Burrow but are adjusting and need his efficiency to go up.  This is as good of a spot as Mixon should see all year to go over 100 yards and score.

 

Forgotten Sleeper

Jonathan Taylor (Colts)

Everyone is overlooking Taylor this week after rushing to his high usage potential the past couple of weeks.  Let us not forget that Taylor was an outdoor RB in college and will be playing in Chicago this weekend against a rushing defense that just allowed Todd Gurley of all people to score on them last week.   If not for hating the tempo of this game and some good PPR running backs being on this slate I would have Taylor as a top 3 must own this weekend.  Don’t forget about him.

 

I will also consider but just missed the cut:    David Johnson, James Robinson, Latavius Murray

Not touching:    Darrell Henderson, Dalvin Cook

 

WIDE RECEIVERS

No position is more different week to week between DraftKings and FanDuel than Wide Receiver.  This extends onto the other sites like FantasyDraft and Yahoo! as well but when you look at evaluations on Wide Receivers you gotta understand the difference in site scoring, pricing and sometimes ownership. 

The AMBUSH Top Duo

Jarvis Landry (Browns)

Tyler Boyd (Bengals)

Boyd is the most reliable option in the Bengals passing game and has one of the softest match-ups of the week against D.J. Hayden for Jacksonville.  In many ways I am finding myself gravitating towards these WR who should be in line for a high volume catch day and relying upon my Running Backs to get into the end zone, but if Boyd is going to score he has the chance to break this slate wide open.  Trust the Bengals offense against the Jaguars in a very good DFS game.

 

Primary Chalk WR

Kenny Golladay (Lions)

New Orleans secondary is down to Patrick Robinson, Chauncey Gardner Johnson (who I suspect will cover Hockenson) and a mix of P.J. Williams, Ken Crawley and possibly UDFA Keith Washington if they elevate him for the game.  In short, it’s not looking too great for them to have a lock down game.  New Orleans is very likely to come out and play a ton of zone defense here which likely makes both Golladay and Jones just solid plays all around but the 6’4 frame of Golladay boxing out P.J. Williams in the end zone is something I cannot get out of my mind as the touchdown call of the week for the Lions.  He won’t murder the Saints like Calvin Ridley did back in 2018, but there’s not a safer WR play on the board this week to get you 2x value.

 

Sleepers of the week to go over 100 yards and score

Golden Tate (Giants)

Emmanuel Sanders (Saints)

The Saints offensive line has a clear advantage in this game on the Detroit Lions.  I know Brees and he has been lacking trust in a bunch of things in this offense which is rare for the general public to see and the narrative that he cannot throw down field is completely off.  He will have success through the air against Detroit and if he gets Sanders lined up against Desmond Trufant in the red zone he will torch him for a touchdown.  Sanders will put up his best game of the season for the Saints on Sunday and is a fantastic value on both sites.

Laviska Shenault (Jaguars)

Everyone wanted his breakout on Thursday night but you cannot play Minshew without expecting Shenault to go off against the Bengals this week.  We’ve seen some rookie WR have their breakout performances lately and now it’s his turn.

 

VALUE SLEEPERS

Hard to beat out last weeks double 2 TD plays here, but I do have some out of nowhere value plays I like this weekend as well

1. Freddie Swain / David Moore (Seattle):  Swain out snapped Moore for the first time in week three and the Dolphins do have a top notch CB1 in Xavien Howard whom I believe can help negate the Metcalf/Lockett two headed monster somewhat.  But Russell Wilson is too good and he’ll find the weakness on this Dolphins secondary which opens up a huge upside play in both Swain and Moore.  Swain is the one I give a slight edge too given that his usage is going up and he is returning back to Florida where he played his college ball a year ago.  I suspect Seattle gets him involved a little bit more here as they have him in their future plans more than David Moore.  Wouldn’t shock me though if they both score.
2. Zay Jones (Raiders):   Who wants a little Zay Jones revenge narrative?  It’s way beyond that though, the Raiders passing attack is severely depleted and they need Jones on the field to give them a vertical threat.  Lots of upside for a big TD play here in a game I am picking the Raiders to pull off the upset in.

 

Not touching:   Tyler Lockett, Cowboys WR, Will Fuller, Adam Thielen

 

TIGHT ENDS

I would suggest finding your Tight End immediately after you plug in DEFENSE first this week.  Because if you are going to make a decision to spend up here then that greatly alters your salary construction for other positions.  There’s not much in the mid range that Is tempting to me this week.

Mark Andrews (Ravens)

He’s actually a little lower priced than he should be at $6,000 on DraftKings this week.  The most safe TE on the slate with Kelce and Waller both having tough spots.

T.J. Hockenson (Lions)

Probably the best pivot off Kenny Golladay this week as I think the Lions spread the ball around and if the Saints do fall into more zone coverage he can just sit down and catch 8 balls all game long from Stafford.  The Saints have gone from an elite defense against Tight Ends to horrific to start the season.  This is the biggest thing in this game to monitor going forward for DFS.

Adam Trautman (Saints)

If he wasn’t $2500 he wouldn’t be on our radar yet, but in a month you’ll be seeing him routinely mentioned as a TE option because he is taking over Jared Cooks role on this offense.  He will catch 3-4 passes for about 25-30 yards.  Is that worth it?  Maybe not, but at $2500 you can do far worse on DK.

 

TE Darts:   Jacob Hollister (Seahawks), Austin Hooper (Browns), Jack Doyle (Colts), Taysom Hill (FanDuel – Saints)

Not touching:   Logan Thomas

 

TEAM DEFENSES

Houston Texans

Kirk Cousins.  That’s it, that’s the analysis.   Two slow paced teams and the Vikings only hope is to potentially run the ball all game long in my view.  Texans are a great value and have had to face three offenses that are on different levels than the Vikings right now.

Baltimore Ravens

Dwayne Haskins.  That is, that’s the analysis.  In all seriousness, the Ravens defense has to be reeling a bit after that MNF game but going from Mahomes to Haskins is the equivalent of a baseball team going from Yellowstone Park to Coors Field.

 

Sleepers:   Oakland Raiders, Arizona Cardinals

 

Questions and Answers

It’s back!  The analysis you never knew you needed.  The Questions and Answers that I anticipate you asking even though you haven’t actually asked it yet…

QUESTION:  Who is getting overlooked this week and why is it not Josh Allen?

I had to keep this in here just as a joke because I have done it two weeks in a row and Allen has gone off both weeks.  He’s finally back on everyone’s radar and I don’t like him at all this week.  The guy getting overlooked though is a Quarterback who plays football for a New York team.  Danny Dimes is the sleeper QB of the week for me going into L.A. against the Rams with absolutely no running game and a pissed off Golden Tate.

QUESTION:  Random off the wall prediction?

Harrison Butker kicks five field goals and Patrick Mahomes accounts for 0 touchdowns.

QUESTION: How do you come up with your ades each week?

I trust my initial opinion on games over the trendy data each week.  If I disagree with a chalky play I will not force mysel onto things simply because someone else has a different take or thinks that what happened last week is automatically what is going to happen this week.

QUESTION:  What’s the game you do not have a lot of players in which scares you to go off?

Cardinals vs Panthers … I don’t see how the Panthers truly slow down the Cardinals offense and with the Cardinals going west to east for a 1PM game they could be sluggish offensively allowing Bridgewater to have a good day for Carolina.

QUESTION:  Favorite Bets of the week?

Colts -2.5

Jaguars +2.5

Vikings / Texans UNDER 53.5

 

Good luck!