The MAC is back again this week with two three game slates. It was really nice having the six gamer last week and I was deep down hoping we could magically have one big two day slate with all six games but I guess this is better because we can just go with all the injury and lineup information for each slate. A key reminder to watch your contest selection as the three game slates are just a little too small to really have too much fun in the huge contests & don’t be afraid to play cash. We’ve got action on Tuesday and Wednesday so let’s go 2-0.
As always, make sure you use and trust The Model
Tuesday’s Games
I see all three games going almost exactly how Vegas has them spelled out but with the third game having the best potential for a game stack.
57: Akron at Ohio (-27.5)
Ohio should have their way at home against Akron and laying almost four touchdowns seems like a lot for sure but there’s not much to like on the Akron side on the road here.
57: Kent St (-20.5) at Bowling Green
This one seems about as clear cut of them all. Kent State should have their way against Bowling Green and I wouldn’t project a scenario where Dustin Crum does not wind up as the highest scoring QB on this slate. The decision tree in this spot is who else to go from Kent State and for my money it’s gonna be the value RB and WR.
55: Miami of Ohio at Buffalo (-9.5)
This one just barely has the lowest total on the board, but I love the over in this game.
QUARTERBACKS
Dustin Crumm (Kent St)
He is QB1 tonight and will likely be Q1 every time he plays this year.
Matt McDonald (Bowling Green)
Hey cool, a $5,000 Quarterback who threw it 30 times last week. Has to be a lock start right? Except he sucks ass. But for a three game slate you’re going to see a ton of lineups that are Crum/McDonald.
Kyle Vantrease (Buffalo)
He only threw it 17 times in week 1 because Buffalo has a great running game, but I expect Miami to keep the game close and Vantrease will throw a minimum of two touchdowns tonight. One is going to Nunn and the other is going to Zach Lefebvre for $3500
RUNNING BACKS
Jaret Patterson (Buffalo)
With this being only a three game slate, we have to accept just blind stacking certain teams and Buffalo is one of those spots. No reason to get cute IMO with Patterson tonight because it’s not a deep RB slate.
Marquez Cooper (Kent State)
The Freshman RB was trusted enough in their first game last week to get 15 carries for 74 yards. He did not find the end zone but he was getting chances down near the goal line. Bowling Green came out in week one and continued to be very weak at stopping the run giving up almost 6 yards per carry and that was almost a mirror of their 2019 season. Expect Cooper to get enough volume again tonight and this time he’ll break off a big one and next week you’ll see him priced in the $6k range. Lock him in.
De’Montre Tuggle (Ohio)
Ohio is the other heavy favorite tonight and Truggle is a little more expensive than I would like.
Also Consider
The entire Kent State rushing attack. They’re all cheap and they all can hit value.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Antonio Nunn (Buffalo) vs Isiah McKoy (Kent St)
You’ll see McKoy as a likely pairing with Crumm tonight but I would not be shocked to see Nunn equal or beat him out. There is a path to fading McKoy by going with WR Dante Cephas instead so that allows us to pivot over to the other elite WR Antonio Nunn in a full Buffalo stack.
Julian Ortega-Jones (BGSU)
Bowling Green’s passing attack is very ugly but there are two guys in the sub $5k range that warrant consideration. Ortega-Jones has more upside than Quinton Morris for $300 more so that’s where I lean despite many looking at Morris’ 25% target share. Ortega-Jones is the play IMO.
Isaiah Cox (Ohio)
We have an unknown situation at Quarterback for Ohio as both Armani Rogers and Kurtis Rourke are likely to get some more action tonight. In the passing game, Rourke is the one who will benefit Cox the most and he is the one who is likely to start this game. Cox is to my naked eye the dynamic receiver in this offense and worth paying a little more than teammate Shane Hooks ($4,800) for. Cox is the way to get exposure to the passing game while taking a long shot on Armani Rogers at QB hoping he gets the rushing production. Overall, Ohio should blow out Akron and get everyone involved tonight.
Jack Sorenson (Miami)
The most competitive game on the board should mean that Miami has to get something going through the air and Sorenson is their #1 WR to look at. His $7,200 price tag will keep him pretty low owned tonight too.
Also Consider
Zac Lefebvre (Buffalo)
Nate Stewart (Akron)