Tonight’s three pack of MAC games are much cleaner to break down than last nights in my mind. A quick lesson from yesterday is that when we have these small CFB DFS slates and we have some heavy favorites you should just immediately plan your lineup construction around stacking a team. Normally in CFB DFS that isn’t necessary when you have slates that have 10 or more games and lots of games where there will be scoring on both sides. But in the MAC, that’s the way to go. Granted, tonight is much different as all three spreads are single digits, but it’s still something to consider — and that being stacking a TEAM and not a game.
As always, make sure you use and trust The Model
Wednesday’s Games
Welcome to the oven mitt slate, as all three Michigan schools are playing today.
61: Eastern Michigan at Ball State (-8.5)
I can make a case for all three underdogs, but if I am going to take the points in any spot it’s this one. Should be the most entertaining game on the slate and the one I recommend targeting players from the most.
58: Central Michigan (-7.5) at Northern Illinois
CMU should roll.
58: Toledo at Western Michigan (-3)
Slight lean on the under, if you are feeling ballsy.
QUARTERBACKS
Preston Hutchinson (EMU) – $6,500
Lock and load. This game will feature a ton of plays and Hutchinson should wind up throwing it well close to 40 times tonight. He’s got a spread of WR to mix it around too and no consistent running game to rely upon in a match-up that funnels to the passing game anyways.
Drew Plitt (Ball St) – $7,800
He’s the most talented QB and is playing in a game which projects to be a shootout in my mind. The path to fading him would be rolling with the ground game only but you will wind up needing his receivers most likely because of their talent, so why not game stack and move on?
RUNNING BACKS
Kobe Lewis (CMU) – $7,600
Kobe went for 112 yards and 2 touchdowns in their opener on 28 carries. He will remain their lead back as they get a match-up against Northern Illinois who is a funnel to the ground game so the volume and success tonight should once again be there for him to top 100 yards rushing with a strong chance of scoring two touchdowns again.
Caleb Huntley (Ball St) – $7,300
I am kind of shocked Huntley is $300 less than Lewis but we are playing them both so who cares. He’s got a great match-up and is a key part of the top game of the slate as the home RB.
Also Consider
- Sean Tyler (WMU)
WIDE RECEIVERS
Yo’Heinz Tyler (Ball St) – $4,600
One of the most successful rules in college sports is to take the secondary or value player who is at home in a great match-up. That’s exactly what we have here with Tyler who metrics wise is not a longshot by any stretch of the imagination. He saw 30% of the targets last week and is a big 6’4 receiver who should be on the field a lot and will draw 1:1 coverage given other weapons on this team. For $2500 less than Justin Hall he’s the first guy we would plug in from Ball State’s passing attack tonight.
Hassan Beydoun, Quian Williams & Dylan Drummond (Eastern Michigan)
I strongly feel you can get away with two of these guys tonight in a full EMU passing game stack. From a value perspective they’re all under $6k with Drummond being $4k after missing the first game despite having more targets in 2019 than the other two. Quian Williams, was someone I was on last week and at 6’0 he is the biggest and most reliable receiver of the trio and priced in a spot where he should be very popular tonight. I think you can consider any of the three assuming Drummond plays and if I knew for certain which one would score I would tell you as I think it’s a roulette wheel. The match-up is good for the EMU passing game.
My play: Beydoun & Williams
Justin Hall (Ball St) – $7,100
The Senior Hall came out in week one and only caught 4 of his 9 targets but turned them into 124 yards and a touchdown. Eastern Michigan allowed 72% passes to be completed in week one after allowing 63% last year. He should see his usual 7+ targets, haul in 5 for 75 and get a rushing attempt or two as well. In a back and forth shootout this is a play we should consider strongly today.
Also Consider
- Khalil Pimpleton (CMU)
- Skyy Moore (WMU)
Final Thoughts
You do not need to go hunting for sub 4k value on this slate. My fade tonight is Bryant Koback for Toledo and I would lean heavily on stacking the EMU/Ball State game today.