Giants

OU: 44.5

• Not gonna stray, stay true to an Eagles defense & secondary game
• Daniel Jones gets picked off twice.  A lot of 3 and outs.
• Miles Sanders does find paydirt, might have 65 yards rushing total.
• No shaking of the sticks.
• No fucking clue — how is Alshon lining up for Eagles.  Alshon is everything and Fulghum plays his position.  Reagor plays Jacksons spot and Ward is the slot.  So what is the deal here?  This is why it’s a lackluster game.
• Expect Reagor to be active.  Reagor will be recommended due to Bradberry factor on Fulgham but nobody is going to cover Reagor.
• More importantly get Goeddert back into flow of the game.
• Wentz has 1.5 TD passes.  Sanders runs one in.
• Eagles win 20-13 or 20-16.  23-17…
• Engram has one big catch in this game.
• Eagles wont lose the game, but Giants cover the game.  20-17 push.

• I do not see a blowout on either side, it’s a close game which could have some weather in it.
• Why do I love Greg Ward?  Bradberry locks down Fulgham this time.
• Kind of like Dallas Goedert but he better be sub 6k otherwise no thanks.
• I don’t think I’ll be pulling anything in DFS from this game, but both QB will get around 20 points and the final score will be in the low 20’s.  Just too much spread around on both sides to trust a specific play.  Giants have to get crafty to find a way to score and likely it’s Jones rushing one in.
• Game to cross off.

Packers

OU: 52

• Do you just go Aaron Jones and Green Bay defense and move on?
• How do you not?
• Don’t like Anything on the Jacksonville side.
• No Robinson, even though that’s the way to beat Green Bay.
• Nothing on Jacksonville side.
• Not sure I like Aaron Jones.  Not a ceiling game.  Cash floor game.
• He’ll be productive and score, 110 total yards.  No ceiling.
• How do you not like GB defense.
• GB better as a DST than Jones is for RB

• How much Aaron Jones is too much Aaron Jones?
• Colder and some rain and windy.
• Green Bay just hammers them on the ground and they’ll sack Luton a few times too.
• Lack of Jaguars offense leads to easy drives for Green Bay.  Not feeling a Rodgers-Adams game here.  They’ll ground and pound.  Rotate Jones, Williams, Dillon.
• This is a take care of business, we are better team game.  Jones has a solid game.
• Packers Defense likely in play, but also expensive.  But I would not be shocked if they score to make it 24-7 and everyone who played Davante Adams is sitting there going … Fuck, I just got Dyami Browned…
• Packers win 33-13.  Aaron Jones over 100 yards and a touchdown.  Not certain they need him to get a second.
• Not feeling James Robinson even vs GB.   If the Jags get to 13 even that would be a stretch.

Lions

OU: 46.5

• Feel like Washington could play well in the dome.
• Line of scrimmage game for Washington.
• Like both of the Washington running backs.
• Washington close to the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.
• Don’t expose Alex Smith again due to QB errors.
• Dont think JD scores, but he is very productive.  5 or 6 balls.
• Both JD and AG on field same time
• Logan Thomas scores, keep him on your radar.
• How big of a game does Antonio Gibson have?  Gotta think about it.
• Washington wins 23-13.  But Hockenson scores.   No doubt…
• If Golladay plays, can see D’Andre Swift productive game.
• If he is out, no part of Detroit.

• This game has points, but no ceiling because of lack of pace.
• It will be Washington’s offense led by Alex Smith, who is not the QB to own, but Terry McLaurin is the WR to own “between the 20’s”.  Tons of catches and yards for Terry.  No TD.
• Steven Sims for Washington scores a touchdown.
• Washington RB scores as well.  JD McKissic not Gibson
• I might be feeling a Washington upset.
• I think I am.  26-17, Washington.  Washington’s offense sustains drives down the field, only two touchdowns though.  Plenty of field goals.
• Really don’t trust much from the Lions side.  I guess if Golladay is somehow back then he can be a threat but I am not feeling much here.
• Washington defense good enough.

Browns

OU: 53

• If Chubb plays I don’t like any of the RB situation on Cleveland.
• If Chubb does not play, lock button Kareem Hunt.
• Especially with Hunt off less than ideal game and adverse weather.
• That is not happening twice.  Lock button Hunt if Chubb is not in.
• Harrison Bryant (TE) scores a touchdown for Cleveland.
• Cleveland wins this game walking away.
• DeShaun plays solidly but nothing spectacular.  270 and 2 TD
• Does Randall Cobb score?   Could see that….

• So Will Fuller.  How does Fuller not have a huge game?
• If Chubb is OUT then Hunt becomes an obvious lock.
• If Chubb is IN then it’s a spot to fade both of them.
• This is not a spot to heavily invest in the Browns in my mind and I wouldn’t be shocked if their defense comes out of the BYE and plays much better.
• Requires research on finding out if anyone is coming back or any changes have been made.
• But Fuller and Hunt would be the two guys who optimizers are going to be jocking.
• This game just feels like a trap though.
• Gut feeling is Browns Defense plays above expectations.

Panthers

OU: 50.5

• Mike Davis definitely in play on DK because he’ll catch a few balls.
• Don’t see how he doesn’t catch 5 or 6 balls.
• Bit of a let down for Carolina coming off the Chiefs game last week.
• Don’t know what you can possibly like on the Carolina side of the ball besides the Mike Davis volume in the passing game.
• Get right opportunity on the offensive side and gel in pieces.
• You will know this week where Godwin stands in this offense and if he is not dominating not sure how they don’t dominate.
• Gronk will score.
• Godwin has to come out of this game with 8 or 9 for 100 yards.
• Ronald Jones will have 60-70 and a touchdown as well.  Mixed in with Fournette as well, neither one has a ceiling opportunity even more.
• Davis catches.  Godwin is what they need to do not what will happen.

• Mike Davis will be chalk on DK at $4000.  That’s just retarded pricing.
• I honestly don’t hate it either because he’ll catch 5 passes the way they run their offense.
• So if he has 30 yards rushing, 5 catches and 40 yards receiving that’s 12 points.  Not bad?
• But lets get this analysis out of the way real fucking fast.
• Play Evans, Mike.  Enjoy the dominant game.  6 catches, 94 yards, 2 scores.
• Brady throws 3 touchdowns and everyone who rostered Ronald Jones is livid.
• Two of them are going to Mike Evans.  Another is going to a TE.  Might not be Gronk though.
• Only Curtis Samuel has value for the Panthers.
• Him and a big volume game for Mike Davis in the passing game on dump downs.

4PM ONLY GAMES

THREE GAME SLATE

Dolphins

OU: 48

• Strength versus Strength
• People are gonna look here for DFS action and not sure it comes to fruition.
• Charges side of the ball Guyton gets loose for a touchdown in the secondary though and there is a Hunter Henry sighting for the first time in a long time.
• Dolphins side.  If Gaskin is playing you have to consider him.
• They will get him the ball several different ways if he is playing and they could win controlling the line of scrimmage style if he is playing.
• If he doesn’t play, Chargers win in a low scoring game.
• No fireworks here.  No I am not going to say Mike Gisecki.
• If Gaskin is playing.  Dolphins win.
• If Gaskin is out.  Chargers win.
• Winner will have the final score of 20-13.
• This will be an offensive let down.

• This game is going to be all about the cheap running backs.
• Gonna hear lots of Kalen Ballage talk against his former team.  Not buying it one bit.
• One HAS to love Jalen Guyton here.  The third WR are beating up the Dolphins.  Not sure that Xavian Howard strictly covers Keenan but he does enough to limit Keenan and I see a bomb from Herbert going to Guyton not Mike Williams.
• But will Herbert have time to throw it deep?
• For the Dolphins, we have to consider Salvon Ahmed if he is cheap with Gaskin still out.  Sounds crazy I know but you sure as hell aren’t going to use Jordan Howard.
• If Preston Williams was healthy (hurt his foot) he’d be the guy for me in their passing game, but not really seeing an explosive spot anywhere.
• This is a tricky game.  I can see it being a sneaky hyped up game but not a very chalky one when things are all said and done.
• So it could be a pass.

Raiders

OU: 51.5

• Like the Raiders side of the ball
• Jacobs has a decent day, not sure you need him
• Welcome to the NFL, Henry Ruggs
• Ruggs catches two
• They have plays designed for Ruggs in this game.
• Lindsay catches a bunch of balls.  Scores and catches a bunch.
• He produces this week
• Gotta get this game right, do not mess around
• Trying to think if Tim Patrick scores too, something about him, think he is the guy this week…
• Bigger receivers vs Raiders??
• I guess if Keenan Allen does so well then the question about Jeudy too?
• Lindsay.  Ruggs scores and is featured this week.
• Jacobs has a solid game.  Doesn’t scream shootout but enough points to be around total of 50.

• Jeudy vs Ruggs baby.  But I think the other options on both sides do work.
• Love me some Tim Patrick for Denver.  He’s still Lock’s guy IMO.
• Lock still fires to him.  67 yards and a touchdown for Tim Patrick…  In the first half!
• You will see Tim Patrick on the NFL Red Zone Top WR Page this week.
• I think that Braylon Edwards could be back, nice spot for him if he does play, but not really worth taking a shot on someone like him.
• The Raiders are better, but it seems like this is a game the Broncos have the upper hand in.
• Josh Jacobs heavy volume game but not extremely efficient?
• Not sure what to make of Denver defense overall.
• Mostly Tim Patrick for me.
• I won’t ever go Agholor, but I think the Raiders just spread things around on offense.
• Wish this game was in Oakland.
• Tim Patrick game.

Cardinals

OU: 56

• 27-24 Buffalo.
• The difference is because Arizona gets torched with Allen running for 80 and a score.  Zack Moss running another 70 yards and a score.
• It’s Zack Moss not Devin Singletary.
• Cole Beasley might get one in.  5 for 55 and a score.
• Patrick Peterson will be all over Diggs.  Really bad matchup for Diggs.
• Beasley 5-55-1.  Allen a lot with his feet but you don’t need him, although havent locked in on a QB yet.
• Zack Moss.  Gotta look at Zack Moss.
• Please don’t play Kenyan Drake!  Please don’t play.
• You gotta love Chase Edmonds.  You gotta love Chase Edmonds.
• Perfect bounce back this week — especially in the passing game.
• Two weeks in a row Nuk gets stud CB.  Could see Kirk scoring on 20 yard corner route in back of end zone.
• 27-24, Kyler still has 2 touchdown passes.  Runs for 40-60 yards.
• Chase catches outside cuts it back to the middle of the field.

• I have a hard time with the other rain games not considering one of these Quarterbacks.
• But it feels like this is a defensive struggle.
• Cardinals are going into a TNF divisional road game.  Buffalo coming off the big win.
• Bills are the side I lean but the Cardinals gotta focus on taking Allen out of the game.
• I assume Diggs is too expensive in a PP matchup.  Cole Beasley has to score, he will.
• Dawwwwwwwwwsons Creek!  A little Knox in the box again.
• So Allen gets 2 TD passing, can he rush one in?  Allen finishes with 23 points.  Kyler finishes under 20.  Buffalo shuts down Kyler like few teams have this year.
• I do not see this game shooting out.

Saints

OU: 49.5

• Really?  This game is at 4?  Ew.
• I think San Francisco plays better than you expect.
• This is very interesting and an extremely contrarian thought.
• If you invest in this game you win all money or finish dead last.
• #1:  Nick Mullens has a decent game.  Not Dom’s guy but best feeling of a Quarterback so far.  He will throw 2 touchdowns.  #1 to Ayiuk.  #2 will go to Trent Taylor.  Coming off TNF he didn’t catch a single pass.  He scores.
• Ricky James doesnt do shit.
• One of the douchebags to catch a long screen pass.
• If Nick Mullens is below 6500 on FanDuel
• Aiyuk, Taylor, JaMychal Hasty on a screen pass.
• Balls to start Mullens.
• Saints spread it out and have a boring game but Latavius Murray touchdown that nobody will see coming in a while.  Murray has 60 to 70 yards rushing with a few 10-12 yard gashes.  Success with him up middle.
• Michael Thomas no doubt about it scores.  But still not invest in MT game.
• Everyone will go to Kamara and he under whelms.
• Saints win but watch the fuck out.
• Winner of the game wins by 2 points.
• Jared Cook does not score.

• Dennis Allen’s kryptonite.
• 49ers only chance is Coleman and Deebo and I without a doubt will be fearing them if they somehow suit up for this game.
• Saints defense is playing extremely good football right now.  But Malcolm Jenkins isn’t quite a two week in a row player so thank god George Kittle is dead and Kwon should help against LB.
• I see a fast moving game.  Lots of short plays for both teams to try and get 5 and 6 minute drives but then you’ll have one or two explosive plays on both sides of the ball.
• San Francisco drives
• First Down … Run.   Second Down … Run.   Third Down … Run.   Fourth Down.   Run….
• Run Left, run right, run fake jet sweep toss crack power dive draw, run run run run run.
• At least that is what I would do.  No, you cannot run on the Saints, but if you do it enough in a game you gan break them down for a big play here or there.  Teams aren’t doing that enough because they think they can tear up the secondary and those days are done.
• My initial feeling is Kamara takes one to the house.  70+ yard rushing touchdown.
• Thomas leads the team in receptions again this week going 7 for 90’ish.
• Taysom package is going to continue to grow.
• He remains involved and with all their weapons back he is even more reliable as an option.

Rams

OU: 55.5

• Jalen Ramsey locks DK Metcalf down
• Lockett, Lockett, Lockett.  Lockett benefits.
• Greg Olsen scores, haven’t said that all year.
• Do not see a scenario where the Rams don’t win.
• Doesn’t shoot the moon and is evenly spread out and you can go either or at Quarterback in this game.
• Nothing sticks out large other than Tyler Higbee.  30 yarder down the left side.  Darrell Henderson does okay and he scores.  Thinking about him catching over the middle of the field.
• Not sure … Leaning Woods over Kupp.  Not sure either one is a must own.
• Like Woods a little more than Kupp.
• Don’t be shocked if there is a Cam Akers sighting.
• Wilson 2 possibly 3 take guarantee and move on.
• Rams spread it around so well which makes them hard to stack.
• Coming off break and spreading ball around is recipe for success.
• Probably would do Goff naked, do like Higbee & Lockett.

• No reason to be forcing unders in this stadium anymore.
• The teams have adjusted to no fans and the bright lights and the shine of the new toy is gone.
• The whole world is going to tout Jared Goff and Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods and Josh Reynolds and Tory Holt and Isaac Bruce.  That’s nice.
• Yes, the Seahawks play the following Thursday.
• But if Russell Wilson is overlooked this week, that could be a mistake.  I know I say they run on the road and Carson coming back makes sense as a contrarian play that nobody will see coming.
• But Wilson to Tyler Lockett is about as solid of a play as I have thought of so far this week.
• Lockett is going bananas on the Rams.
• This is one of those games which could break into a RB battle, but in the end Kupp and Lockett will get theirs.  How does Cooper Kupp not?

Steelers

OU: 46

• There is some juice in this game.
• Ben always plays better at home.
• Problem is, cant believe Im gonna say this.
• Love his fucking RB.  Conner runs for 120 and a touchdown.  Just that simple.  He runs for 120 and a score.
• Ben throws 2 touchdowns.  Washington and JuJu.
• JuJu re-establishing himself.  Dont need Ben.  Plays well.  270 & 2.
• James Conner
• Joe Burrow throws 2 touchdowns.  AJ Green [good catch game] and Auden Tate who gets loose in secondary for a 40-45 yarder.
• Steelers win by 10.  Bengals play well first half of the game.
• Bengals may even have a lead at start of second quarter.
• AJ Green catches a bunch as the lead slips away.
• Steelers take over second half and runs away late.
• 31-21 final score.

• With the rain coming in I think this is a get James Conner right game, but at the same time the Bengals rush defense has shown signs of improvement prior to the Titans game when the Titans backups gashed them and not just Henry.
• But Conner should get close to the 100 yard marker, probably gets a touchdown here as well and serves as a solid RB to consider even with other guys getting some touches too.
• I can’t imagine Ben’s knee is going to feel great this week and in the cold and rain, an old knee is not gonna be feeling great.  So the Steelers passing game to me just dies this week.
• If Claypool was still cheap he’d be fine, but he won’t explode, so not going there.
• Bengals could be sneaky.  I can see Burrow playing well off the BYE, but where the hell is Joe Mixon?  If Mixon is out, you run away from the Bengals side.  If Mixon is IN then I like Bengals to play well and keep this close.  But it’s just the RB for me overall.
• If Mixon is out, Steelers defense has to be considered.

Patriots

Bears