Welcome to a special edition of the NFL Ambush as Week 12 kicks off with the tradition of all traditions.  The NFL on Thanksgiving with a three game DFS slate and all the Showdown goodies one can handle.  This will be a slightly different layout than the Main slate articles that I write each week because there’s a different approach to playing DFS on holiday slates that are smaller like this.

The first reminder is to have fun.  There’s always a pressure with smaller football slates to try and get cute and make yourself into the smartest person in the room.  Just remember that the person who is the smartest when it comes to holiday’s is the person who just goes up to the dinner table, grabs their food and takes it off into the corner to stuff their face and then later pass out without having to talk about the current events of the room.  I mean, who really wants to talk about COVID-19 anymore, or the debate over Election Fraud or how Taysom Hill scored 4 times the amount of fantasy points as Matt Ryan last week?  Let everyone else get all cute and fun with those topics, and just like in DFS we will just pick the right plays to put ourselves in position to have a shot.

The goal is not to find a 2% owned player who busts off a 30 yard touchdown run because that won’t exist on a small slate.  The goal is to avoid mistakes and to give yourself a shot to jump up with one play here or there.

 

MENU OF GAMES

Houston (-2.5) at Detroit — Over/Under:  51

Washington at Dallas (-3) — Over/Under:  46

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (45) — Over/Under:  45

 

KEY INJURIES

D’Andre Swift (DET)

Kenny Golladay (DET)

 

These are the plays which I believe are the CORE to this Thanksgiving slate.  Use each of these plays in your Showdown lineups as well.

PRIME-TIME BIG BEN

Ben Roethlisberger has long had a history of being a Quarterback that excels more at home and in prime-time spots.  For whatever reason some of his larger statistical performances have come in that split and he’ll find himself getting a reeling Ravens team with tons of COVID-19 issues to keep the trend going.  With a stable of healthy and dynamic receivers the Steelers are just dropping back and letting Ben lead them offensively.  One stat which gets overlooked from their prior meeting this year was how lopsided the offensive plays were in the game.  Due to their defense scoring the Steelers only ran 53 plays compared to their normal average of 65 to 70.  On those 53 plays Ben still dropped back 32 times and with Baltimore not playing as well on defense we can expect that heavy volume again.

Roethlisberger is likely the 4th highest owned QB on the Thanksgiving slate and only has to worry about DeShaun Watson and Lamar Jackson rushing touchdowns in to beat him out.  I have full faith that Lamar won’t do it and while Watson is nice, the Ben $6,600 price tag on DraftKings trumps Watson easily.  Lock in Ben for a 3 TD and 300 yard performance as he eats most of the Steelers points this week.

THANKSGIVING FULL-ER

The best part about the Thanksgiving slate is the Wide Receiver position.  We have lots of guys who grade out well and it’s a position that should be the FLEX spot on DraftKings due to the PPR volume we should see with some of them.  But the one guy who may not be the dominant possession type receiver I gotta own is Will Fuller.  It’s no secret he has become Watson’s number one target this year with the loss of DeAndre Hopkins in the off-season and Fuller has paid off with four 100+ yard receiving games and had a stretch of six games in a row he hauled in a touchdown.  That streak now feels like a while ago as the last two weeks featured an ugly weather game in Cleveland and a game last week vs the Patriots where Watson hooked up with all the “other guys”.  Lock Fuller in though against the Lions defense which has gotten demolished by Washington and Carolina WR the last two weeks.  Detroit isn’t getting any pressure on the opposing QB, so Watson will have time and Fuller will explode.

MOTOR CITY BACKS

We have a big injury situation with D’Andre Swift who as of the time I am writing this has not yet been cleared from concussion protocol.  Given that it’s a short week and he didn’t play last week I would heavily lean on him not playing.  But let’s just be clear, if he does play, he’s a must start for me.  If he sits, we can arguably say both Adrian Peterson and Kerryon Johnson become near must starts on a weak RB slate and they’re both solid values.  The Texans rush defense is dead last in the NFL right at 160 total yards per game.  It’s bad.  They should get gashed easily even by a mediocre backfield without Swift which really didn’t do much against an equally bad Panthers rush defense last week.  One has to still consider this a solid spot and so getting Detroit backs into our lineups is a must.

 

POSITIONAL RANKINGS

QUARTERBACK

Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)

Ben will be my Quarterback on all sites for main lineups this Thanksgiving so long as they find a way to make sure this game plays without a COVID cancellation due to the Ravens challenges.

DeShaun Watson (HOU)

One of the most consistent Quarterbacks over the last six weeks, Watson will be the highest owned Quarterback on this slate.  I do love me some Will Fuller and he’s a core play, but the Lions rush defense has once again started to show holes as nobody has been worse combined over the last three weeks.  So I see a scenario where Watson does not explode.  He’s in play if the Baltimore/Pitt game gets PPD due to COVID at the last minute.

QB FADE:  Lamar Jackson

 

RUNNING BACK

D’Andre Swift / Adrian Peterson (DET)

It’s no doubt D’Andre Swift if he is cleared to go and if he is not then Adrian Peterson will rush for 60 yards and a touchdown.

Ezekiel Elliott (DAL)

I know it’s only three games but this Thanksgiving slate of RB options feels very very very thin.  Zeke has been a Turkey day consistent back averaging nearly 20 fantasy points, but this isn’t the same Dallas offensive line so we should temper expectations obviously.

J.D. McKissic (WAS)

The third RB for me is a tough call and really I would prefer to go with a 4 WR set in the FLEX position.  There’s lots of options here tough between Gibson, Duke Johnson, James Conner and Gus Edwards with the Ravens RB situation looking thin.  But the passing game volume which J.D. has gotten over the last few weeks makes him my preferred choice.  With lots of bleak options I would like the guy who is going to catch 5 passes over the rest of them.

RB FADE:  Duke Johnson, James Conner

 

WIDE RECEIVER

Will Fuller (HOU) & Terry McLaurin (WAS)

These guys are my CORE locks at WR.  You need one if not both and by one I definitely mean Will Fuller who is going to go off on Detroit.  Only pivot off McLaurin in my mind would be a contrarian Kenny Golladay if he wakes up and realizes that he should dominate the Texans in the red zone and vulture Swift touchdowns.

Amari Cooper (DAL)

A lot of love is going to CeeDee Lamb after an impressive catch and because Dalton has thrown to him quite a bit.  No reason to ignore Cooper though who is still the best WR (for now) on Dallas and I expect him to lead the Cowboys in receiving this week.

Diontae Johnson (PIT)

You cannot argue with the target share’s he has gotten lately.  15, 3, 10, 11 and 16.  The three?  Against Baltimore a few weeks ago in a game as I mentioned above the Steelers ran very few plays in.  He should be back to 8+ targets tonight.

James Washington (PIT)

This is what I’ll consider my sleeper / off the wall receiver play.  With Claypool, Johnson and Ju-Ju there’s less chances for James Washington obviously because he may only see a few targets.  But this is a $3,000 option as a fourth WR that would be a good stack with Ben.

 

WR FADES:  Brandin Cooks, CeeDee Lamb

 

TIGHT END

Logan Thomas (WAS)

In September Logan Thomas was the TE everyone wanted to be a thing simply based off his target volume.  But Dwayne Haskins was just so bad that even with 24 targets in the first three games he only hauled in 12 catches.  The struggles returned last week hauling in only 2 of 5 targets, but prior to that he had developed some better chemistry with non Haskins’ Quarterbacks and has a favorable match-up against Dallas.  The TE position is very thin on this slate, so take the guy who might see the most volume and pray.

TE FADE:  Mark Andrews

 

DEFENSE

Pittsburgh Steelers

Dallas Cowboys

 

SHOWDOWN SLATE CAPTAINS & VALUE

Houston vs Detroit: 

Captain:  Will Fuller

Best Value – Matt Prater

 

Washington vs Dallas:

Captain:  Amari Cooper

Best Value – Dallas Defense, Steven Sims

 

Pittsburgh vs Baltimore:

Captain:  Ben Roethlisberger

Best Value – James Washington, Devin Duvernay