Welcome to Week 9 – The NFL Ambush, a full guide into this weekends NFL DFS Main Slate of action to help you become a better player and find some success.
This is the spot where 99% of articles start off with something like. “Hey friendly dipshits, welcome to an interesting slate of games. I am joined by my co-host on this break down SlapDickCashMoney505DFS, how’s it going SlapDickCashMoney505DFS?. WELL CaptainWinItAllWithMySafeForCashFadeGPPUnderWeight12% friend I am doing great. Yeah, Interesting set of games we have here. We have games with vegas totals and games with spreads and injuries, holy hell…”
If you didn’t read that in the most nerdy, fake radio voice tone then stop and go back and do it again so you properly understand it. My lord it’s the same shit every week and yeah I fall victim to it sometimes as well, but let me be very blunt with you.
This slate sucks ass.
This is a challenging DFS week. Not to find the plays which I like and the ones which look like they’re spots to avoid. But it’s more a week where the pricing construction on whichever your favorite salary cap site is seems to not fit quite as simple as other weeks. The WR who I like are a little overpriced. The RB I like are a little on the lacking trust side in my mind and the Quarterbacks I like. Well, I only like one Quarterback today so that part is do or die for me. So if you are someone who likes to start your lineup with a stack or you like to focus on one position first, then follow that process as always, but know that the puzzle isn’t going to fit as cleanly as it has the past couple of weeks.
Now, let’s move on to the article. Or should I spend 10 minutes of your time rambling about the previous weeks results? Nah, nobody cares… Let’s move along.
SLATE INFORMATION
The first thing we must do each Week is understand the landscape of the slate and any injury or weather or miscellaneous information that we need to monitor from the time this article comes out (Saturday’s) until lock on Sunday at 1PM EST.
Injuries and Playing Time Concerns
- Quarterback:
- Matt Stafford – I expect him to play. If he doesnt then load up on Vikings Defense.
- Running Back:
- Ezekiel Elliott – If he sits Tony Pollard will be an ok value simply off passing game volume alone on DK. I expect he will play.
- Wide Receiver:
- Sammy Watkins – If he is out again then bump for a value play is noted below
Weather Status
It’s perfect. Absolutely perfect.
Projected Ownership
After last week when we had a ton of value drive the chalkiest and highest scoring slate of the year, we have a nice balance of player ownership projections in Week 8. Here’s the quick summary of what the projected chalk is as of Saturday morning.
QB: Josh Allen, DeShaun Watson, Russell Wilson — Each will be around 10 to 15% with quite a few guys getting 5% ownership behind them.
RB: Dalvin Cook (30%), Chase Edmonds, James Conner, David Johnson, Clyde Edwards-Helaire
WR: Tyler Lockett, Keenan Allen, Marvin Jones Jr., Stefon Diggs, Adam Theilen, Jerry Jeudy
TE: Darren Waller, Noah Fant, Travis Kelce, Evan Engram
DST: Texans, Steelers, Cardinals, Ravens
Alot of this could change Sunday morning with some value spots opening up, but any value I project right now which is not listed in my article to me is BAD value this week.
CIRCLE THE WAGONS
Buffalo vs Seattle should be a fun and quite popular DFS game this weekend kicking off the 1:00 PM slate of games. After a week of bad weather around the league we have almost perfect weather in most spots, including Sunny and upper 60’s in Buffalo, NY of all places! Ever since Pete Carroll has been in Seattle I have found success using rushing Quarterbacks against his defense and Josh Allen still has some lingering stench on him from a few Island/National TV games but the kid has quietly performed adequate the past two weeks and is poised to shred Seattle this week. The lure of Allen is not just having a reliable slot guy in Cole Beasley and the big play threat of Stefon Diggs. It’s that Allen will almost certainly find success up to 60 yards rushing on the day and a single rushing TD plus 2 passing touchdowns will make him finish as QB1 this weekend with a 30 point performance. You can play him naked, you can pair him with the PPR machine Beasley on DraftKings or you can go all in with WR1 Stefon Diggs on FanDuel, either way you slice it get yourself Josh Allen and the Bills exposure against Seattle this weekend.
Ambush Play #1 – Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley deliver as advertised.
Expectations: 30 DK Points for Allen, 5 receptions for Beasley and 120 yards + touchdown for Diggs.
WHERE DID EVERYONE GO?
You may have noticed someone missing from the ownership projections above. He has a pretty good history of leading his team in fantasy points, in fact he was pretty much a must play every single week for a while according to some. I am talking about Derrick Henry, who is projected to be not only sub 20% but quite possibly sub 15% owned at home against the Chicago Bears. Let’s examine why he is so low on the projected ownership. It’s mostly due to the four touchdown performance by Dalvin Cook last week, combined with a couple mid range RB’s in good spots but none of it should be attributed to the match-up because the Bears defense is one that gets beat up on the ground more than through the air. With the Titans coming off a bad loss against the Bengals in which Ryan Tannehill was horrific, we have to love them to re-establish Henry over and over again and if you think Khalil Mack wants any part of tackling Henry then you have another thing coming to you. Henry will get the ball all game long, wear down this Bears defense and do what he always does. Score, get over 100 yards and put up a pretty darn good score.
Ambush Play #2 – This is a no brainer, play Henry over Dalvin Cook this week.
Expectations: Henry gets over 100 yards, into the end zone and beats out Dalvin Cook in raw points.
I WISH I HAD A WALLER
There’s only three 4PM slate games this weekend and only one of them is really standing out to me as a spot I will be watching for DFS purposes. It’s the game in SoFi Stadium between the Chargers and Raiders who both have a dominant spot on both sides. There has been ONE game all season where Waller did not see 6+ targets and that was against the Patriots who have been able to shut down Tight Ends all year long. This week against the Chargers he’s getting a DEF that has yielded solid games to opposing TE 3 of the last 4 weeks and he should be in line for another 7+ targets which will equate to a 6 catch, 75 yard game. For a Tight End this season that’s a pretty solid floor and a game where the two Quarterbacks are likely to be throwing a ton I like his chances to get some red zone targets too.
For the Chargers, it’s very simple. Feed Keenan Allen. The #1 target on the team will have an easier time moving around the middle of the field against the Raiders defense and this is a spot where Herbert may not look to go over the top as much as he’ll find Keenan and let him catch and run. It’s a deep slate at WR, but Keenan Allen should not get overlooked in a high volume spot.
Ambush Play #3 – Waller and Keenan provide the 4PM slate weight.
Expectations: Waller gets 15+ DK points and Keenan Allen leads all 4PM slate receivers in receptions with 11.
UPSET SPECIAL
The Panthers are coming off a TNF game and getting Christian McCaffrey back, while the Chiefs are one week away from a much needed BYE week break. Nobody will anticipate Carolina keeping this game close and they’ll likely think that the Chiefs are just running the ball all game long with a lead. As Lee Corso would say, not so fast my friends! I like, no, I loooove, the Panthers to control this game this weekend in the upset of the season. Carolina sits back and plays predominantly zone defense, much like one other team the Chiefs had a sluggish game against this season — the Chargers. They simply will not let Tyreek Hill take the top off their defense and will funnel everything through Kelce and the KC ground game. But what I love in this game, is that with CMC back Teddy Bridgewater will get a little extra time in the passing game to connect with Robby Anderson for some big plays. This will really be the first time that Carolina has been able to have all three WR + CMC + a trust worthy Mike Davis all ready to go and this is an offense to buy into during the second half of the season as they’ll be able to sustain drives via third downs with so many weapons and hit the big play to Anderson at the right time.
Ambush Play #4 – Carolina Panthers walk into Kansas City and shock the Chiefs, 27-24.
Expectations: Robby Anderson tops 100 yards receiving with a touchdown.
NOT GONNA MAIL IT IN
And yes, I went there. I twisted in some current events into our life into the Ambush plays. I wanted to give a 5th play as I always do but there wasn’t a specific player that I wanted to highlight here as much as what I think the feeling/theme on the week is going to be. In the case of NFL DFS this week it’s going to go opposite of the Presidential Election and whoever is winning early is going to sustain their lead late with the right late players — but not too many. There are three games on the 4PM slate and they feature some high powered offenses in Arizona, Pittsburgh and Vegas/Chargers. But I think you’ll need all your scoring early and there’s some bad plays on the late slate which will just die. No sudden surge and while everyone else is sitting there watching Andrew Sciciliano doing his best Jon King impression trying to zoom into the game in Arizona only to see a failed red zone attempt, you will be sitting there enjoying all your early points that you accrued. The bottom line is to get it all out of the way at 1PM, take a guy in the Raider/Charger game and then take a nap until Carrie Underwood starts singing for the SNF game.
Ambush Play #5 – 1PM slate of games dominate scoring this week.
Expectations: PMR does not come in handy this week.
Ambush Fades of the Week — The Week 9 Fades
- Most of the Steelers/Cowboys game: Don’t mind Conner but I don’t see him fitting in $ with Henry.
- Arizona vs Miami
- New York vs Washington
- Denver vs Atlanta
RECAP OF AMBUSH PLAYS
- Nobody circles the wagons, like the Buffalo Bills
- There’s no reason to forget Derrick Henry
- I wish I was a baller, I wish I was Darren Waller
- Panthers upset Chiefs behind a big game from Robbie Anderson
- STOP THE COUNTING! Early slate points for all the winning.
JOSH ALLEN
I do not mind going with the highest owned QB this week. He’s my guy because I expect a great game, not because he is popular. The rushing upside against Seattle is a hidden gem, so do not feel scared to play Josh Allen naked this week without any of his WR even though they’re okay too.
DEREK CARR
Really fantastic value on DraftKings and the QB to play on the late 4PM slate this week. At only $5,700 we’re getting a QB that should be in a passing situation a lot against the Chargers because the Raiders defense isn’t pitching a dominant defensive outing again this week and Carr to Waller will connect and pay off well for his price.
Just missed my top 2: Kirk Cousins, Lamar Jackson, DeShaun Watson
Not touching: Drew Lock
This is one of the worst RB slates on the season and I am highly likely to have 2 TE or 4 WR in every lineup instead of a 3rd RB. Be smart about your RB2 based upon the site you are on because of the PPR bonus.
DERRICK HENRY
Give me all the D-Henry this week over Dalvin Cook, over CMC, over James Conner, over James Robinson. Not to say those others are terrible but Henry is the most secure of them all in my mind. No reason for the Titans to force Tannehill to throw against the Bears, so Henry should get his usual heavy volume and we’re buying a stud player at lower ownership than he has had all season long despite being a home favorite (a trend many like).
RB2 OPTIONS
JAMES ROBINSON
If you also played Jake Luton in College DFS then raise your hand. He will be starting for Jacksonville and while I actually think he will do okay, this is still a spot they should lean heavily on James Robinson on the ground. Do I trust Robinson to break 20 points? Heck no. But facing a bottom 10 rush defense and a defense who has given up more rushing touchdowns than about 90% of the league should be a logical place for us to look at Robinson to do just enough this week.
DAVID JOHNSON – Better on DraftKings
Johnson has become one of the more boring players in DFS. He never gets over 100 yards rushing as he doesn’t have break away ability and even though he is great in the passing game, they just don’t check it down that much. But at $5,600 and with a thin RB slate, he’ll get you over 2x for sure. I would much rather have him against the Jaguars than Chase Edmonds who will lose his rushing touchdowns to Kyler.
DAVID MONTGOMERY – Better on Fanduel
He has to score, it’s that simple. Montgomery isn’t ever going to be a guy who can break off big runs because the Bears O-Line has not been opening holes enough but they still trust him heavily despite the Titans being very good lately against the run as they shift back to being a team you beat through the air. If the Titans struggle, it’s going to be stopping Montgomery who at $5,900 on FanDuel is a really tempting value on a thin Running Back slate.
VALUE SLEEPERS
LEV BELL
His patient style should work very well against Carolina’s zone defense and Mahomes will more than likely be willing to check down to him because that is where the Panthers funnel everything too. I get that Clyde Edwards-Helaire is once again a popular play, but tell me the last time he smashed value this year? Exactly. Bell is still cheap and will see an increase in usage this week — especially in the passing game where he scores on a screen pass.
JUSTIN JACKSON
Raiders had a good game defensively against Kareem Hunt last year, but asking them to do it two weeks in a row on the road is a bit much. The risk here is that I love Keenan Allen so much and I don’t want to over expose myself to the Chargers, plus Jackson and Kelly continue to split shares as RB1/RB2 and that makes him a bit of a longshot, but a good value longshot.
Just missed the cut, but I don’t mind: Dalvin Cook (I am going Henry instead, it’s that simple), Antonio Gibson,
Not touching: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, DeeJay Dallas, Chase Edmonds
STEFON DIGGS
Broke him down above, he’s my #1 WR point per $ on the slate to be paired with Josh Allen. He fits better on FanDuel lineups compared to Cole Beasley who many will be on at DraftKings lining up in the slot, but don’t assume Diggs flops this week.
KEENAN ALLEN
Nobody on Las Vegas is going to be able to cover him. It’s that simple. Lock him in on DraftKings for a big game if you want to go with value RB and trust the wideouts he has to be in your CORE.
TYLER LOCKETT
When I say play Lockett, he balls. When I say play Metcalf, he balls. I am telling you to play Lockett. We good? Great.
SLEEPER OF THE WEEK
ROBBIE ANDERSON
When they play in faster paced games, Anderson is seeing 10+ targets per game. This should be a faster paced game obviously against Kansas City than what Carolina usually does and the CMC return opens up single coverage outside for Anderson even more. Anderson is this weeks Mike Williams (only more expensive).
SQUEEKY WHEEL
MARQUISE BROWN
The problem with assuming Brown gets the ball after complaining is that Lamar Jackson has to land the ball within 15 yards of him to have a chance to catch it. Lamar has been atrocious on the deep ball shots to Brown this season, so look for them to get Brown the ball on some quick screens this week and that could bust open for some big plays.
VALUE WR
This is a week where the value is at #2 Running Back, but since I am telling you to play Allen and Henry then I clearly know you are going to sit there and yell — how the heck can I play Allen+Henry and all those high priced WR on DraftKings? Obviously you can’t. So RB2 has to be cheap and WR3 needs to be a cheap play. Let’s go bargain hunting.
- DeMarcus Robinson … Has proven when he gets on the field he gets targets and even is a target in the red zone. If Watkins is not a go then lock in Robinson as a value WR3.
- Darnell Mooney … You beat the Titans with speed.
- Marvin Hall … Only if Stafford is in
Like, but won’t have because of too many other options: Jerry Jeudy/KJ Hamler
Not touching: Steelers WR
DARREN WALLER
Top ranked TE this week on all sites. Waller continues to see the most consistent amount of targets from Derek Carr and in scenarios where the Raiders are underdogs his volume tends to go up roughly 33%. That scenario should produce dividends this weekend.
JIMMY GRAHAM
I wanted to search for a value play that could get in the box and Jimmy fits. The Titans remain in the bottom portion of the league yielding points to opposing TE and they’ve shored up their run defense lately so for $3,800 on DK I like going to Jimmy this week.
TE Darts: Will Dissly/Jacob Hollister
Not touching: No major fades here this week. I won’t have Kelce because I prefer Waller, but Kelce should do just fine.
PITTSBURGH
The best sack team in the league getting a bad offensive line and a QB making his debut. Not much else to explain here.
ATLANTA
The Falcons defense has played better under Rahim Morris as the interim HC. Drew Lock is prone to mistakes so that’s the benefit of taking a value D here.
GIANTS, WASHINGTON, VIKINGS
These are all throw away / punt defenses that are cheap. If you don’t go Steelers this week then don’t spend at all on Defense. Washington has the best sack potential based on their talent and drawing Daniel Jones, but the Vikings are equally good if Chase Daniel does sneak into the lineup for the Lions. The Giants are just luckboxing something out of the Washington game, I can feel it.
Questions and Answers
QUESTION: Who is getting overlooked this week and why is it Teddy Bridgewater?
Teddy two gloves just doesn’t put up monster games, but with a kinda weak QB slate this week in my mind he can get you to paydirt with a little salary savings. Love his passing game this week and with CMC back we could see a big play there in the passing game too.
QUESTION: Random off the wall prediction?
The Panthers win off a missed Chiefs FG at the buzzer
QUESTION: Favorite 1PM and 4PM only stacks and plays?
1PM Only – If you simply want to get off the ownership of the Seattle/Buffalo game then look no further than the Ravens/Colts.
4PM Only – Chargers/Raiders
QUESTION: What’s the game you do not have a lot of players in which scares you to go off?
Texans vs Jaguars
QUESTION: Favorite Bets of the week?
Bears and Ravens: Two team Teaser
Good luck!