I have not made my way into the content and picks giving business for College Basketball over the years because it truly is a sport that requires you to be on top of injury and playing time status during the regular season and I am not one who was able to have the time to provide that level of detail. However, we are deep into the season where news is being reported much better and with the new platform here I can have more time to share with you my CBB strategy.
My strategy is I trust my model.
Thanks for coming, have a nice day.
No, seriously. I have put a shit ton of time and effort into the model and I will challenge anyone out there to find a better resource for CBB and it’s only getting better by the day. It takes into account the players projection, current usage, usage in split situations, match-up strength and weakness, pace difference and many other statistical factors to come up with my own rating system and it has been rock solid all year long. CBB is a small niche sport in the lobbies and FanDuel has completely ignored their product forever, so it’s DraftKings only and you’ll have to lock up your reservations early — but if you want some good sweats during March Madness, here’s what you do.
Open the CBB Dashboard. One thing I love to do is stack games with 3-4 players in it and I never use more than two players from a single team.
Tempo matters the most. The games with the highest combined tempo rating are going to highlight in green at the top of the dashboard and often times you will find that a high tempo game has a high over/under so do not be afraid of getting exposure on games with high totals. But the other thing to check into are games which should be highly contested as tempo is one thing, but quality of possessions is another.
I also try to avoid forcing in the 8k and up guys when there are plenty of 5500 to 7000 players. This is the sweet spot. If you can get a 30 from all 8 players you are going to have an awesome night and it’s easier for a $6k guy to get to 30 than it is to hope a 4500 guy gets 20 and a 8000 player gets his 40. Obviously when stacking from one team you’ll be better off not stacking two $8k guys together because it’s hard for both to hit ceiling in the same game.
For, March 12th here are the core plays I am looking at.
Main Slate – Seven Games, locking @ 6:00 PM EST
Missouri vs Arkansas
Welcome to the Moses Moody show for Arkansas. He is about to go on a tear and make his name into a household name. Love Arkansas on his back tonight, pay up for him at $8,200
- Mizzou: Kobe Brown, Dru Smith, Xavier Pinson
- Arkansas: Moses Moody, Jalen Tate
- Arkansas -5.5
Oklahoma State vs Baylor
Cade Cunningham has shown to be a big game baller, but Baylor proved last week they’re a match-up problem for Okie State.
- OKST: Avery Anderson III
- Baylor: Mark Vital, Matthew Mayer (Mayer had a near career game vs OKST and bigs have done well vs the Cowboys. Minutes limited but he is good value punt)
- Under 147.5
Georgetown vs Seton Hall
Georgetown has a little bit of a sleeper cindarella aspect to them going on with Ewing and the whole MSG snafu yesterday. Very stackable game.
- GU: Jamorko Pickett, Chudier Blie
- SHU: Jared Rhoden, Myles Cale, Sandro Mamukelashivili
- Over 141
Rutgers vs Illinois
Illinois is locked in as a #1 seed but on a collision course with Michigan for B10 title.
- I am fading this game.
Oregon State vs Oregon
The Ducks should put up some points on Oregon state but it’s gonna be spread around and hard to imagine one guy going off.
- Oregon State: Ethan Thompson
- Oregon: Eric Williams Jr.
Tulane vs Houston
Houston is going to win in a blowout, avoid everything except the under on this game.