Now we are talking, a big 13 game Tuesday night slate and the final Dongers Club appreciation contest for the month of May. Here is the unofficial standings going into the final leg tonight and I only say unofficial because I haven’t double checked all lineups against rules yet but so far the ones at the top all check out. The different random rules in May have been designed to force you to think of different ways to build lineups and while they’ve all been a little extreme one thing which should remain true here is how you can build lineups in many different ways.
Here’s the standings (and no, I will not win if I finish first but you can be damn sure I’m gonna try)…
Here’s the rule for tonight
All players (SP & Hitters) in your lineup must either be American League or National League players, no mixing leagues.
Her’es the contest link
https://www.draftkings.com/draft/contest/108550990
Here’s a picture of two NL Central Third Basemen
And here is your Dongers Club for Tuesday, May the 25th
WEATHER
We have no rain concerns tonight but we do have wind blowing out in a few spots (Minnesota, Milwaukee, Boston) of which Minnesota seems to be the main one to focus on for hitting boost.
Roof should be open in Milwaukee
Roof expected to be open in Arizona and it’s almost 100 degree’s there.
Jacob deGrom (DK: $11,800, FD: $12,000)
We can offset the concern that deGrom is coming off a short IL stint and is obviously priced up with the fact that he is at home and facing the Colorado Rockies. In case you missed it, while he was out he went down to single-A and decided to pitch left handed with his eyes closed and still struck out all 8 of 9 batters he faced on 41 pitches.
So the real question related to deGrom is who was the kid who didn’t strike out? Jacob Buchberger grounded out on a 1-1 count to third base in the bottom of the first inning. As you can see he is a fine young looking lad, who at 23 years old is in his first professional season in Low-A ball after attending Davenport University which is in Grand Rapids, Michigan. So this kid has gone from growing up in Michigan and attending some random school to playing minor league ball in Palm Beach, Florida. If this kid didn’t spend the next night out at the bar working his game by impressing every woman with the fact that he hit the ball off Jacob deGrom then he is clearly doing things wrong.
Good for him and not only can he claim that he was the only guy to not strike out vs Jacob deGrom, he can now say that he is the only member of the Palm Beach Cardinals to ever appear in the Dongers Club. One of these things has to get him some attention at the Florida bars.
There really are a bunch of good A-/B+ pitchers after deGrom today that you could consider doing a SP1+SP2 pay up combination with
Joe Musgrove (DK: $9,500, FD: $8,400)
Musgrove is the top 2nd option for me after deGrom when considering price, K potential and match-up. Joe Musgrove has faced the Brewers obviously given his time in the NL Central with the team from Western Pennsylvania and the last two seasons he has a K% over 30% against LHB which is a good portion of what he’ll see tonight from Milwaukee. There’s plenty enough strike-outs here and he has less blow up in him than Blake Softashell did last night.
Lucas Giolito (DK: $8,700, FD: $9,600)
Giolito has mostly been unlucky in 2021 as balls which really shouldn’t have been home runs or doubles in a few games have really spiked up some of his stats (in a negative way). The Cardinals are a RH heavy lineup and unlike Lance Lynn, Giolito to me is someone I’m not gonna ride the Goldy-Nado combination on today. He is better than he is priced tonight.
Andrew Heaney (DK: $6,200, FD: $7,200)
Please note, I hate Heaney chalk – but I think he will do alright today.
If Jorge Lopez is the king of the sometimes good sometimes shit GIF, then Andrew Heaney has to be the left handed version of it. I could give you some garbage about his home splits being better than on the road or how he strikes out righties and doesn’t give up power to lefties but none of it really is consistent with Heaney because he just isn’t consistent and isn’t very good. Is he too cheap? No, does he have ability to go off and strikeout 10 guys? Absolutely and while Texas has been much better than anyone thought I think we can take this risk with Heaney today considering we went against him last time he was chalk and that worked out exceptionally well. But Khrush Davis will take him yard.
GONNA PITCH WELL TONIGHT
I’m not pushing hard on either player below to be in your CORE/Main lineup but if you are loading up for deGrom and expensive hitters then these are in play on 3rd/4th/5th builds as you want to get creative with pitching tonight.
Logan Gilbert
This is your cheap arm of the night and he’s been popular in his first two starts by everyone else but not us. We avoid rookie SP’s, so why is he on the list now you ask? Well, for starters, I personally think opposite of everyone else who says rookie pitchers at home are better than rookie pitchers on the road. To me there’s a ton more pressure opening at home than on the road, so this is Gilbert’s third start and first away from Seattle. He is probably going to max at 90 pitches and has a 5 inning ceiling once again but I have never questioned his talent, just question using rookie pitchers until they settle in some. At $5,000 he is the top cheap SP2 to consider pairing with a deGrom tonight as I like him to bounce back with 5 very clean innings and over 6 strikeouts. Cole Irvin in the same game is another cheap SP2 option.
Tarik Skubal
Skubal is really starting to learn to pitch now in his second full season and Cleveland to me loses their big bat vs LHP with Franmil Reyes out and on the IL. With Ramirez being on his weak side (and bad chalk right now) this should be another good effort from Skubal today.
NOT GONNA PITCH WELL TONIGHT
Max Scherzer … Bottom of the Reds lineup sucks so bad he will get pissed off and strike those guys out, but Geno with the Ambush tonight and Cincy does jack a couple long balls off him. Fade for me.
Aaron Civale … I can’t pull the trigger at his price even vs the Tigers who have a high K%. He doesn’t strike out enough hitters for me to use him over other guys in the same mid range as him.
Clayton Kershaw … Nope, run away from this spot today.
SF Giants
Yaz, Dickerson, Crawford, Longoria
Hello his name is Corbin Martin and he’s a dumb white guy. He’s not old or new but middle of the road like Marty McFly.
Yeah, he hangs em like planet pluto, hard to see with the naked eye, but if it crashes into Yasztremski’s bat he’ll stick it where the sun don’t shine. Cuz I’m kind of like Evan Longo always stroking my own wookie. The humidor is the root of all evil, but you can suck it Carty….
The roof. The roof. The roof is on fire. We don’t need no water let that mother fucker burn.
Orioles vs Twins
Hays, Santander, Franco … Kiriloff, Polanco, Larnach
The Twins are the more obvious play going up against Dean Kremer but the wind and warm temps here should help Baltimore out as well who hopefully has Hays back in the lineup. The Twins offense is not the reason they stink this year and with two young lefties on fire in Kiriloff and Larnach they’ve added the ability to hit righties now. We have to wait and see what we get with lots of questionable banged up hitters on the Twins side, but this is the best AL game on the slate to target for offense
Braves
Freeman, Albies, Riley, Swanson
Atlanta has one of the hottest hitters in Austin Riley right now and he’s still only $4,000 on DK? I know he strikes out a lot more vs righties but Garrett Richards isn’t exactly Max Scherzer here and I believe we’re about to see Ozzie Albies go absolutely off batting ahead of Riley this week.
OTHER FAVORABLE HITTING SPOTS
Arizona Diamondbacks – Lineup not as deep and Gausman not as good of a target but Escobar is gonna take him out.
New York Yankees
Houston Astros – Roof closed hurts them.
Texas Rangers – #1 leverage play on the slate
CATCHER
- Pedro Severino – Once he starts to hit the sweet spot he is going to go on a tear, unless you think he just fell off a cliff and will never come back I suggest riding him a lot soon.
- Buster Posey
- Austin Hedges
- Austin Barnes
FIRST BASE
- Luke Voit
- Miguel Sano
- Yuli Gurriel
SECOND BASE
- Ozzie Albies – His breakout week is coming as he is really hitting better of late and the Austin Riley surge behind him in the order can’t hurt.
- Owen Miller – At $2,000 just plug him in if you spend up on both pitchers and take the 5 points
- Luis Arraez
THIRD BASE
- Austin Riley
- Eduardo Escobar
- Evan Longoria
SHORTSTOP
Because I want the safety of good pitching I won’t be touching Trea Turner today and obviously Tatis is $6600 and just no thank you on that price on a big slate. But note this, Trea Turner and Juan Soto are the best 1-2 pay up spot tonight that nobody will have. If you start there and go cheap on SP2 I like it, but for a balanced lineup there’s good mid range and cheap value here.
- Gleyber Torres – Quietly on fire
- Brandon Crawford
- Adalberto Raul Mondesi – Well hello there old friend. He is only $2500 and you could do worse I guess in terms of cheap value plays. Keep an eye on Mondesi because his price is not likely to go up before his production does.
OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore
- Mike Yazstremski
- Juan Soto
- David Peralta – D’Backs are overlooked as Gausman in fly ball parks struggles.
- Alex Dickerson
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Alex Kiriloff
- Anthony Santander
- Austin Hays
- Austin Meadows
OUTFIELD – Value
There is a ton of value in OF as you would expect on a big slate. Two of the guys (Garcia/Davis) are fantastic leverage vs Heaney.
- Adolis Garcia
- Justin Upton
- Big Cedric Mullins
- Nomar Mazara
- Dylan Carlson
- Khris Davis
The Dongers Club
- Eduardo Escobar – 3B – Diamondbacks – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Juan Soto – OF – Nationals
- Ozzie Albies – 2B – Braves
- Pedro Severino – C – Orioles
- Khris Davis – OF – Rangers
- Luke Voit – 1B – Yankees
- Alex Dickerson – OF – Giants
- Brandon Crawford – SS – Giants
- BONUS ………………… Austin Riley – 3B – Braves
LINEUP CONSTRUCTION THOUGHTS
Chalkiest Stacks
- Twins
- Yankees
- Braves – Bad chalk as a 4-5 man stack IMO.
Team(s) with most upside getting overlooked and also not being attacked with a SP (i.e. Low owned secondary stacks)
- Blue Jays – Kluber coming off the no-no and RH can hit him.
- Nationals
- Red Sox
- Diamondbacks
LEVERAGE PLAYS
- Baltimore Orioles
- Texas Rangers against Heaney chalk on DK
DK SE SP Recommendations in Order
- deGrom and Heaney
- Musgrove and Giolito
- deGrom and Gilbert … I honestly believe Gilbert pitches well
FD SE Recommendations in Order
- Lucas Giolito
- Joe Musgrove
- Jacob deGrom
CORE HITTERS FOR SE
- Giants top of the lineup, which isn’t out yet, so I don’t know who, but 1-4 find the cheap guys and lock them in
BETS
- Giants / Diamondbacks OVER 9
- Jays / Yankees OVER
- Atlanta / Boston UNDER 10
- Mariners / Athletics UNDER 8.5
- Orioles ML