Here is what we have in store for the early slate of games today, which is a 5 game slate on DK and a 4 game slate on FD.
- Phillies at Marlins
- Rockies at Mets – 7 inning Double Header
- Big question marks on who is starting game one. I am seeing it will be Marquez vs Stroman, but chances it could be Senzatela vs Looch.
- Cubs at Pirates
- Padres at Brewers – Expect the roof to close
- Indians at Tigers
This is a very chalky 5 game slate which might sound like the most obvious comment in the world but the breakdown of what is going to happen in each game looks pretty clear cut. There’s not a ton of hitting that leaps off the page as the worst pitchers arguably are Spencer Howard facing the Marlins, Tyler Anderson facing the Cubs and then we have the always enigmatic Hendricks vs Pittsburgh, Boyd vs Cleveland, Houser vs Padres, Weathers vs Brewers …. Just a lot of head scratching spots for the data crowd today to be perfectly honest.
So let’s trust our gut on this slate and do not be afraid of going full contrarian mode on a short slate. I’ll break it down as best I can.
PITCHING
Shane Bieber (DK: $10.8)
Beeber gets an AL Central opponent, which means he’s basically got 10 strikeouts already in the bag. Given that it is the Tigers there’s a chance he pushes it up to 13 today. His $10,800 price tag on DraftKings is too cheap. He will be 70-80% owned on DraftKings and that might be a little conservative to be honest. This is your first decision today, are you in with Beeber and trying to nail the correct one off bats, or are you off Beeber and stacking the Tigers like a donkey.
Don’t be a donkey.
Pablo Lopez (FanDuel Preferred)
Lopez is in play on both sites, but his decision on DK is mostly a matter of how to pair him with Bieber and not fading him so much there. Overall the Phillies offense is a good target as only Rhys Hoskins and Brad Miller look to be knowing how to swing the bat right now & Lopez at home is almost always in the conversation among the top pitching choices. He likely will not match Shane today but he can come very close and for the leverage crowd, he’s fantastic on FD. On DK I think your leverage is pairing him with Shane instead of Marquez.
German Marquez ($6,800) – Questionable?
Because this is a 7 inning game I would start things off right here. Match-up was good last night to recommend both Marquez & Stroman and now Stroman will go in game two, so no reason to hate Marquez here today…. If Marquez AND Stroman are starting both are in consideration but more Marquez. If neither starts, cross em off and double spend up.
HITTING STACKS
PIRATES
Adam Frazier, Ben Gamel, Bryan Reynolds, Gregory Polanco
Kyle Hendricks on the road ranks as one of the more favorable spots I would like to attack. Unfortunately it’s the Pirates, but there’s going to be some bad chalk on the Cubs IMO in this game who against a LH ground baller are not as likely to jack out the home runs they have been known to do in PNC park in the past. Hendricks struggles away from Wrigley and he struggles with lefties. Not to mention the Pirates don’t strike out at all and we’ve got a ducks on the pond day where everyone will be stressing over whether or not Gregory Polanco can finally get a hit with the bases loaded.
Padres / Brewers
Roof closed in Milwaukee helps but both pitching staffs are tough to pick on normally. However, with Houser and Weathers we have the two guys we can potentially get some one off production against today.
POSITIONAL FAVORITES
CATCHER
Jacob Stallings
Jorge Alfarro
FIRST BASE
Eric Hosmer
Keston Hiura
SECOND BASE
Jake Cronenworth
Adam Frazier
THIRD BASE
Nothing … The cost on the big name guys I think is what sinks the ship on some today. Fill this position in last with what you have left and just pray.
SHORTSTOP
Fernando Tatis Jr
Owen Miller (FD eligible at SS)
OUTFIELD
Thomas Pham … Continues to produce every single night since coming back from injury and remains $3200. Algo is broken on this one.
Ben Gamel, Gregory Polanco, Bryan Reynolds … I am trying to think of a 3-Pirate joke and I just cannot come up with one. Gun to my head while walking the plank I choose Gamel and Reynolds
Avisail Garcia
Adam Duvall / Corey Dickerson
Chairman of the Dongers Club
Ben Gamel – OF – Pittsburgh Pirates
Ranking the Offenses overall
- Pittsburgh Pirates … What a time to be alive
- San Diego Padres
- Milwaukee Brewers
- Miami Marlins
- Cleveland Indians … They suck, but when Boyd goes south he goes south hard
Cubs are the fade