Great Friday last night and now we have a crap shoot of a set of games this afternoon due to some double-headers and what not. FanDuel is just being rogue with their slates so we’ll ignore them completely today and this is covering the 10 game DraftKings 2PM slate this afternoon. If you are on FanDuel they have a 4PM slate there with half the games in it.
Here is my advice today … Don’t play. Yep, I know none of you will listen to me on this given that it’s a Holiday Weekend and you’ll look and see a 10 game slate, but honestly the weather is dicey, the double headers are an issue and … okay fine, we’re gonna play the slate.
Double Header – 7 Inning Games
Brewers at Nationals (1st game)
Orioles at White Sox (1st game)
Rockies at Pirates (2nd game)
Weather Summary
Brewers & Nationals likely will play through rain today to get both games in. First game will not be dry at all and is a 100% fade for me.
Marilns & Red Sox pushed through last nights rain so we’ll see about today, I don’t see how the field is in good shape
Rockies & Pirates likely get theirs in easily.
No hot games.
Luis Castillo
Welcome to Luis Castillo day! He has been horrible all season long but vs the Cubs in Wrigley with the wind blowing in we should be looking at him today.
Frankie Montas
The Angels offense continues to plummet to the levels of if the Tigers, Pirates and Rockies all mutated together to form a super shitty offense. If Ohtani rests today after pitching last night then that makes it an even more horrific offense to pick on.
Freddy Peralta
This is the first game on the slate so we should know right away what Peralta’s status is in terms of weather delays. If the game is a go then I would trust him to produce a good score in a short 7 inning game vs the Nationals.
There is one game that is out in a dome today which might look like the best one for offense in the Padres/Astros with Odorizzi vs the Padres, but I’m going to be avoiding a full stack there outside of Tommy Pham who is great value and if you have the $ Tatis. Otherwise, there are three other games which I would focus my attention on today.
Blue Jays vs Indians
It’s another very windy day in Cleveland but two rough pitchers on the hill and I just don’t care anymore with Toronto, they’re so on fire right now you just plug them in and move along. But Cleveland after getting whooped last night does have some value in it against Stripling too.
Yankees vs Tigers
The Yankees might get overlooked because Spencer Turnbull has started to gain respect but this is a horrible spot for him in my mind. Wind is blowing out heavily so anything they do get up in the air will carry out to right field. Look for the Yankees to have a big day today.
Deivi Garcia is starting for the Yankees and his stats in a limited start this season are so bad the Tigers are all at the top of the model. I could pull in his minor league stats from this year as well but honestly that would only make things worse. He hasn’t shown anything in 2021 to warrant thinking he’ll pitch a gem today, so with favorable wind here for the Tigers I like their lefty bats to do well today.
Royals vs Twins
Today’s game should feature some homers in it, the Royals look like they’re in a good stretch offensively with lots of slumping guys having good games last night and J.A. Happ is pitching terribly right now. Great spot for Salvy, Whit and Soler to go yard. Meanwhile for the Twins they’ll get likely a bullpen game from Kansas City and I expect Kiriloff to have a big game for the Twins today.
CATCHER
- Salvador Perez
- Yasmani Grandal
- Gary Sanchez
FIRST BASE
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr
- Miguel Sano
- Matt Olson
SECOND BASE
- DJ LeMahieu
- Willi Castro
- Whit Merrifield
THIRD BASE
- Ryan McMahon … RyMac is quietly one of the best hitters in the game nobody considers on the road. Good park for lefties and the Rockies if they were in a full 9 inning game would draw my attention more. He is the one off to homer from them today.
- Gio Urshela
- Jeimer Candelario – Good value
SHORTSTOP
- Adalberto Mondesi
- Fernando Tatis
- Trevor Story
OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore
- Aaron Judge
- Robbie Grossman
- Randal Grichuk
- Alex Kiriloff
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Jorge Soler
- Eddie Rosario
- Yordan Alvarez
OUTFIELD – Value
- Tommy Pham – He should be $5000 by now on DK, he isnt….
- Brett Gardner
- Avisail Garcia
- Seth Brown
The Dongers Club
- Randal Grichuk – OF – Blue Jays – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Whit Merrifield – 2B – Royals
- Ryan McMahon – 3B – Rockies
- Tommy Pham – OF – Padres
- Alex Kiriloff – OF – Twins
- Vlad G – 1B – Blue Jays
- Gary Sanchez – C – Yankees
- BONUS ………………… Brett Gardner – OF – Yankees
BETS
- Yankees / Tigers OVER 8.5
- Oakland Athletics -148
- Cincinnati Reds +113