Ten games tonight with the Brewers in Philadelphia and of course no Ryan Braun which is a great tragedy but in life we must accept these things and move on. The world is mourning this so much that there is going to be a good amount of rain in Philadelphia and hopefully they just ban all Brewers-Phillies games until Braun comes back for one last hurrah in Citizens Bank Park.
Here are the weather spots to be concerned with today
- Milwaukee at Philadelphia – Rain
If this game does play then we would like the Milwaukee side with Yelich likely coming back and the Phillies bullpen really struggling lately (not to mention they’re weak vs LHB). So Yelich, Wong, Vogelbach and the sneaky JBJ all make a nice core stack here for the Brewers if this game were a go.
- LA Dodgers at Chicago Cubs – Rain
If this game does play then it’s all about the pitching and I do not mean Kyle Hendricks even though he should pitch better. Wrigley does drain poorly but this is an ESPN game I believe and for that reason I could see it playing. Yes, the wind is OUT here but it’s not a strong gust and my belief is that they wait out the rain or PPD it early. The humidity should go away after the storm.
- NY Mets at St Louis – Storms here as well but I don’t see it being as bad as the other games above.
Here are the spots which have wind or humidity notable impacts
- Texas at Minnesota – Wind is OUT to RF around 16 mph
- Cleveland at Kansas City – Wind is IN at 11 mph, also some humidity, but not that much
And then we have Coors Field …
It’s very cold and soggy there so we hope that it will wind up PPD. But if it does not then we have the biggest whiff in pricing known to man kind. How about a $2000 hitter in Coors? Yep. He homered yesterday btw and that would be Mike Tauchman. Then we have Alex Dickerson at $3500 probably leading off. Oh, it gets better. Charlie Blackmon — you know him, right? He’s $3700. For comparison sakes, the fucking Pirates are more expensive than the Rockies and Giants tonight. I am not even going to write them up below because I pray this game PPD. But sure, there’s great value all over the place here.
Aaron Civale – (DK: $8,900, FD: $9,500)
Civale is never going to be confused with the Glasnow’s of the world obviously but this isn’t a terrible spot for him. The Royals aren’t a dominant team against off-speed pitches and with favorable pitching conditions tonight I can see Civale giving us 6+ innings of limited damage with enough strikeouts to put him near the top of the slate.
Walker Buehler – (DK: $9,600, FD: $10,200) – Rain Concerns
The Cubs have caught a little fire recently through the benefit of good home weather (wind & higher temps), a series in Atlanta (very hitter friendly) and the weekend series in Cincinnati (extremely hitter friendly).
But now they’re back in Wrigley for a night game without all the hitting elements boost. So we’re getting to pick on a lineup with a banged up Contreras, Matt Duffy and swing and miss Javy Baez batting in the core spots of the order. This slate is a little bare for solid pitchers in good spots and so Walker is the most trust worthy option which might get overlooked given the Cubs recent tear.
Adam Wainwright – (DK: $8,000, FD: $7,200) – Slight Rain Concerns
Waino is only in play for me if Walker Buehler is going to get washed out tonight and I see him having less damage/issues than Montas, Maeda, Kremer who are other mid range SP2’s that folks will consider today. Wainwright has been the best of that bunch and is facing a team coming off a contested divisional series and a Sunday night road game. Two things that have favored the opposing SP on a Monday night in recent years. He’s the pivot off Walker in the event of rain
Guys I am not looking to use …
- Kenta Numnutz Maeda: Continues to get hit HARD this season really getting hammered on his secondary stuff. The Rangers are the #1 team in the Majors this season against RHP Sliders and the Texas lefties will get a little wind boost here in Target field tonight too. So unless he pulls out a no hitter tonight, he’s gonna get hit hard again.
- Tyler Glasnow: Go right ahead if you want to use him. I’m not looking to pick on the Angels with a 10k pitcher. They don’t strike-out, he tries to strike out everyone. He wont finish 6 innings.
- Dean Kremer: Thought about it. Then came to my senses…
- Daniel Lynch: I have a hard and fast rule about not using pitchers in their debut which I rarely consider breaking. The $4,000 price really made it tempting to consider Lynch as a play but we just don’t need to take this risk tonight. Lynch profiles somewhere between J.A. Happ and James Paxton. And for you youngins, J.A. Happ was once a pretty darn reliable pitcher, but that’s the floor for Lynch with Paxton’s pre-injury golden years being the ceiling. Lynch is 6’6 and throws hard from the left side, but has not had a season above Single-A ball — but that’s not the main concern as Lynch was a high end college arm so I don’t suspect the lack of having a full season at AA or AAA will be the main thing which slows him down. What should slow him down is more that it’s his first ever start in the majors and the Royals have shown to have a quick hook on their younger arms so while I can see him going 4 innings, giving up a couple runs and striking out 5 or 6, I just don’t envision needing his cheap $4k price to win anything.
If Buehler AND Wainwright are washed out then you’re looking at praying with Tyler Anderson, Jose Quintana, Daniel Lynch, Dean Kremer or taking Glasnow and just accepting that you are over paying. Everything at that point becomes a game of leverage or lineup construction balance, so I will be going to fade the Padres with Tyler Anderson in the event that 2 of my top 3 are washed out. Steven Matz would be plan C.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Springer – Semien – Vlad G – Bichette
The Jays should have 8 RH batters in tonight and Montas has been destroyed by righties this year. He should pitch better as the season moves along but this lineup is a really bad spot for him starting with Marcus Semien returning to Oakland and adding in some great doubles hitters like Vladdy G, Bo Bichette and George Springer in a doubles park.
TEXAS RANGERS
Lowe – Calhoun – Dahl – Gallo
I mentioned above how they really profile well against Maeda and he is going to be a popular play on both sites — but really on FD where he is cheap. Load up on Nate Lowe tonight as Texas gets to continue the next beat down of Kenta Maeda. I don’t know what his major malfunction is right now but he is getting HAMMERED right now and he sure as hell don’t look like now Cowboy to me to steeer away from Kenta Maeda tonight with a Texas stack.
L.A. ANGELS vs TAMPA RAYS
Trout – Walsh – Rendon – Arozarena – Brosseau
This game is going over and I was not expecting Glasnow to be popular but why in the world would you use Glasnow who MUST strike out 10 guys to hit his value given that he doesn’t go 8 innings in games and is facing the team who just doesn’t strikeout at all?
I wanted to go all in with Tampa against Ohtani as this park plays great for LH batters but it’s no longer the ideal spot now with Jose Quintana starting, however the Rays are going to be getting Brosseau in the lineup who does hammer LHP.
UNDER THE RADAR GAME
BALTIMORE ORIOLES vs SEATTLE MARINERS
Mancini – Hays – Haniger – Lewis
We’re limited on heavy teams to invest in tonight so you are seeing some “bad” teams pop up in good spots on this list. Texas is one and Baltimore is the other. It should be mostly a bullpen game for Seattle, and the Mariners have been pretty good on the back-end of their pen but up front could be a major issue for them tonight. Baltimore is quietly putting together a nice little run scoring 16 runs in the 3 game set at Oakland and Austin Hays looks locked in right now giving them a nice 1-2 punch with him and Mancini.
CATCHER
- Pedro Severino
- Just punt it, this is not a good position at all today.
FIRST BASE
- Nate Lowe
- Paul Goldschmidt
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr
SECOND BASE
- Marcus Semien
- Brandon Lowe
- Nick Solak
THIRD BASE
- Matt Chapman … Since he cannot hit gas, this is a dream scenario getting Steven Matz.
- Maikel Franco
- Nolan Arenado
SHORTSTOP
- Corey Seager – I’m really worried about the game playing but $4800 vs Hendricks is damn good.
- Bo Bichette
- Joseph Wendle
OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore
- Eddie Rosario … 0.2% owned player on DK tonight who has two doubles and 3 RBI.
- George Springer – Anchor of the Blue Jays stack
- Christian Yelich – Weather concerns
- Willie Calhoun – Forgotten man in Texas
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Wil Myers … Myers vs LHP at home. Rinse and repeat.
- Randy Arozarena
- Max Kepler … Smell that? That would be the smell of a Max Kepler hitting streak coming. I think… Wait, what did you eat last night?
- Mitch Haniger
OUTFIELD – Value
- Coors Field Outfielders … How is Blackman under 50% tonight if the game plays? Choose wisely, I think this game is lower scoring than ppl expect.
- Austin Hays
- Odubel Herrera
- Jordan Luplow
- Jackie Bradley Jr
The Dongers Club
- Nate Lowe – 1B – Rangers – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Willie Calhoun – OF – Rangers
- Matt Chapman – 3B – Athletics
- Marcus Semien – 2B – Blue Jays
- Trevor Story – SS – Rockies
- Jackie Bradley Jr – OF – Brewers
- Jordan Luplow – OF – Indians
- Mike Zunino – C – Rays
- BONUS …………….. Kolten Wong – 2B – Brewers
TOP BETS:
- Orioles / Mariners OVER 8
- Texas Rangers ML
LINEUP CONSTRUCTION THOUGHTS
This is a spot to go away from the chalk which is HORRRRRIBLE chalk tonight.
Chalkiest Stacks
- Coors Field … It’s so cheap it will be so easy for folks to auto lock it in. If you find yourself needing 1 or 2 bats at the end for cheap then go ahead with top of order guys.
- LA Dodgers … Full fade for me
- San Diego … Myers is the only Padre to sniff. But don’t try and use Tyler Anderson. I know they are the top stack on my model today…
Team with most upside getting overlooked and also not being attacked with a SP
I love this tier in addition to the leverage teams below.
- Oakland
- Cardinals – Goldy/Arenado going B2B??? Just hate the rest of the lineup
- Baltimore
Best Leverage Spots
- LA Angels – Why the fuck is Glasnow going to be 40% owned tonight???
- Texas Rangers (More on FD)
- Cleveland Indians (More on DK)
- Kyle Hendricks