This is the only article today because this is the only slate today. The 1:00 PM afternoon Thursday slate is the Main slate today and I can totally get used to this type of scheduling from now on to be perfectly honest with you.
Not exactly warm temps around the country today either, so likely another middle of the road offensive day.
All games play.
Zack Wheeler (DK: $9,600, FD: $9,100)
I prefer to look at the top of the order and their potential to hit a pitcher rather than the bottom of the order. The biggest reason here is that the time when a pitcher will make or break his day is going to be in the 1st inning and the 6th inning. That’ when he see’s the top of the lineup the first time or the third time if things are going moderately okay on the day. For Wheeler vs Woodruff we have two pitchers who should be looked at heavily today but the Wheeler match-up against the top of the Brewers lineup greatly out weighs the Woodruff match-up against the Phillies top of the lineup. Philadelphia is playing well enough right now to manage a sweep here and we’ll just chalk this up to the Brewers never winning in Philadelphia ever again since Ryan Braun semi-retired.
Brandon Woodruff (DK: $9,300, FD: $10,100)
Equal to Wheeler, just more expensive on FD so he is not SP1 and there isnt a great “value” team out there today like the Tigers and Brewers the past two days, so we’re going to consider an SP game stack here but in reality I would prefer to pair Wheeler with one of the 7k range pitchers on DK.
Michael Pineda (DK: $7,500)
In the battle of which pitcher against the shitty strike-out offense do we take we have Nathan Eovaldi vs the Tigers. Jon Lester (LHP) vs the Braves who K a ton vs LHP this year and ole Michael Pineday-game vs the Rangers at home. Now I’m not a fan of any of these guys most of the time but Pineda’s the one who actually in my mind has the best strikeout upside today. The wind is blowing out to right and there are a few Rangers who can square him up in Calhoun and Lowe, but the rest of the lineup will be whiffing all day.
Other quick Pitching notes and thoughts
These are not my recommendations on playing, but I wanted to be transparent on my thoughts on them because you might be doing more than one lineup (which is all I am doing on a slate like this) and need some diversification. Basically only Eovaldi is in play here.
- Eovaldi – He is okay in my mind. Prefer the guys above though and I’m not gonna write up 10 pitchers as plays.
- Lester – The Braves are gonna break out of their funk vs LHP at some point so I have no desire to use Lester because of that risk.
- Cole – Nope. Astros aren’t striking out 12 times today. No thanks.
- Woodruff – Only as a game stack, prefer Wheeler and Phils are winning again.
- Duffy – Duffy has been marvelous, but a 44% sweet spot rate and an xSLG of .428 still imply that there’s going to be some challenges along the way.
BOSTON RED SOX
Alex Verdugo, Xander Bogaerts, Raffy Devers, JD Martinez
Boston is a machine and the ball will be put into play over and over again today against Spencer Turnbull who isn’t the worst pitcher on the Tigers but he also does not get enough strike-outs to avoid damage against a lineup that is hitting as well at home as Boston is. We need to monitor Verdugo’s status today as he was given last night off due to back stiffness. As always the case with Boston, do not be afraid to plug in someone at the bottom of the order just to make the stack fit. When the top goes off it’s usually relying upon someone to homer at the bottom of the order.
Toronto vs Oakland
More the Toronto side (Semien/Vlad/Bichette/Grichuk) but Murphy and Laureano from Oakland are solid.
This is entirely a gut feeling play and having Mike Fiers on the mound is never a bad spot to have a true gut test on. Speaking of guts, the Athletics will be making Ryu rub his gut early and often as this lineup has enough every other bats doing damage against LHP to make this a long afternoon in Oakland. Like a 3&3 game stack in this game.
CATCHER
- Martin Maldanado
- Sean Murphy
FIRST BASE
- Vlad Guerrero Jr
- Matt Olson
- Miguel Sano
SECOND BASE
- Marcus Semien – Boom!
- Jed Lowrie
THIRD BASE
- Rafael Devers
- Cavan Biggio
- Austin Riley
SHORTSTOP
Deep position where we are paying today. I would call a Lindor angry HR here but the position is just so deep.
- Xander Bogaerts
- Carlos Correa
- Francisco Lindor
- Beaux Bichette
OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore
- Alex Verdugo – Questionable with back.
- Yordan Alvarez – Sneaky 1% owned 2HR game upside.
- Ramon Laureano – A must if you ride Oakland
- Giancarlo Stanton – White Hot and when Stanton is white hot, he produces 30 burgers.
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Franmil Reyes
- Max Kepler
- Byron Buxton – better on FD where you can afford him easier.
OUTFIELD – Value
- Michael A. Taylor
- Andrew Benintendi
- Randal Grichuk
- Akil Baddoo
The Dongers Club
- Marcus Semien – 2B – Blue Jays – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Max Kepler – OF – Twins
- Vlad Guerrero – 1B – Blue Jays
- Sean Murphy – C – Athletics
- Francisco Lindor – SS – Mets
- Rafael Devers – 3B – Red Sox
- Giancarlo Stanton – OF – Yankees
- Yordan Alvarez – OF – Astros
- BONUS ………………………… Franmil Reyes – OF – Indians
LINEUP CONSTRUCTION THOUGHTS
Chalkiest Stacks
- Braves/Nationals
- Twins
- Red Sox
Team with most upside getting overlooked and also not being attacked with a SP (i.e. Low owned secondary stacks)
- Mets (Lindor/Conforto/Alonso)
Best Leverage Spots
- Houston Astros – Day game in Yankee Stadium vs their former teammate.
- Cleveland Indians
3-Entry Max Builds
- Wheeler & Pineda — Balanced
- Wheeler & Woodruff — Pay up
- Pineda & Eovaldi — Pay Mid
Or, since it’s A) An afternoon slate and B) Have fun Thursday ….
Go completely out in left field … Lester/Smyly game-stack.