Lets start off July with a bang. Hey-oo, puns intended there. Early slate today has 5 games on DK, 4 on FD and then the main slate tonight before a nice weekend coming in. Yesterday was an extremely high scoring afternoon slate with a hot Washington DC icing things off at the end. Today is not that and two of the games today have some storm issues in them but with visiting teams who don’t return to the area.
Article is posting early today as I won’t be around to make any updates closer to lock, so keep an eye on the weather spots but honestly I am not on those games at all and will be riding my usual approach on a shorter slate which is to focus pitching in one game, hitting in another, hitting save and moving on. It worked yesterday to min cash even with Arrieta thanks to the Nats/Rays explosion and has been the most consistent approach on short slates.
WEATHER CHALLENGES
I would suspect all games wind up playing but the two northeast games do have storm issues they have to navigate around making pitching choices there riskier.
Angels at Yankees
Royals at Red Sox
Sean Manaea
For only $9,000 you should highly anticipate Manaea vs the Rangers is popular and rightfully so. Even with day games in Oakland giving the park a boost it’s still a great match-up for him and his form has been good post the sticky stuff changes. Not someone I have ever been a large fan of, but this is a spot he should excel in.
Hyun-Jin Ryu & Yusei Kikuchi
Games in Buffalo during the day are always going to be a little wonky with the wind likely changing directions at times. Seattle will be seeing a lefty for the third straight day and that’s basically the only thing about their side of this game which I think could favor them, otherwise Ryu is someone who should avoid giving up hard contact tonight and I prefer to game stack on short slates, so lets go Ryu-Kikuchi and shuffle right along.
CORE SP: Manaea & Ryu
Longshot/Leverage SP: Kikuchi & Bubic
Two guys who I think are popular SP’s today are Carlos Rodon and Jose Berrios, but that’s the focal point game for me. The weather is good for offense and there’s lots of juice built up in this series right now with these two teams. Donaldson is on a tear and Jose Abreu even popped out of his slumber to wake up last night. Should be a firework game today…
Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins
As I mentioned there is juice in this game with the wind blowing out considerably and two guys who like to live in the zone a good bit, expect Chicago to wake up in a big loud way today and so if you stack a game today, it’s easily this one. Donaldson or Moncada is an extremely tough choice on DK today as is my 1B choice between Abreu, Sano or going to the game below. I would be lying if I said to you that one or the other was the must play, but as you’ll see there is a significant price difference between the choices at 1B & 3B today, so identify the OF core, how you want to roll pitching and then fill in 1B/3B last.
- Chicago Hitters: Moncada, Abreu, Goodwin, Grandal
- Minnesota Hitters: Donaldson, Polanco, Cruz, Sano, Kepler
Oakland Athletics
The wheels have fallen off on Dane Dunning and he is starting to hit a big brick wall. Today he will pitch to Matt Olson who will hit a big green wall out in right field a couple of times and with some weather concerns in a couple other games this one feels like the best one off spot to pick guys from at lower ownership.
- CORE: Olson, Laureano, Lowrie
CATCHER
- Yasmani Grandal
FIRST BASE
I have no problem with either, you likely cannot go wrong. Abreu at his price though is almost too hard to pass up.
- Jose Abreu
- Matt Olson
SECOND BASE
- Jed Lowrie
- Jorge Polanco
THIRD BASE
Donaldson is the better play, Moncada is the cheaper and lower owned play and I expect the White Sox to pile on the Twins bullpen more than the Twins on the White Sox pen. But Donaldson either homers or gets plunked by Rodon and then charges the mound and we got a full on brawl going. Seriously, if I could find a place to put a bet on Donaldson getting plunked first AB I would place it.
- Josh Donaldson
- Yoan Moncada
SHORTSTOP
- Tim Anderson
- Elvis Andrus
OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore
- Nelson Cruz
- Max Kepler … The sneaky play of the day, he gets overlooked in LvL spots
- Ramon Laureano
- Teoscar Hernandez
OUTFIELD – Value
- Brian Goodwin – Virtually a must in this game if you are stacking it because of his value and good spot in the order.
- Tony Kemp – Love him today as good value
The Dongers Club
- Max Kepler – OF – Twins – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Josh Donaldson – 3B – Minnesota Twins
- Matt Olson – 1B – Athletics
- Yasmani Grandal – C – White Sox
- Teoscar Hernandez – OF – Blue Jays
BETS
- Twins/White Sox OVER
- Mariners/Jays UNDER
- Oakland Athletics 1st Inning Runs – Yes
HR PARLAY
Where I play these you cannot parlay from the same game, if your book allows it then parlay guys in MIN/CHW game …
- Donaldson / Olson / Teoscar Hernandez
LINEUP CONSTRUCTION THOUGHTS
THE HIGHEST CHALK STACK(S)
Blue Jays, Red Sox
LOW(er) OWNED GOOD TEAMS
White Sox, Twins, Athletics
LEVERAGE STACKS/PLAYS
SP in Toronto game
DK PITCHERS
Ryu/Manaea
FD PITCHERS
Ryu
CORE HITTERS
Yasmani Grandal
Josh Donaldson or Yoan Moncada
Matt Olson
THE ONE OFF
Max Kepler — Hopefully he plays in the LvL matchup.