STRATEGY

I have a somewhat bold take for this upcoming season and my belief is that we are not going to see Running Backs dominate like they have in recent seasons. 2020 was the year of Alvin Kamara, 2019 was the year of Christian McCaffery and 2018 was the year of Todd Gurley. While Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook and Ezekiel Elliott always provided big weeks along the way each season. To be clear, what I am referring too are the 3 TD, 160 yard games that these guys did multiple times in those seasons and I don’t think we’re going to see that this season like everyone assumes you will with these studs at the top. It’s just a gut instinct but you’re going to get solid production from the top tier RB — barring health. But you aren’t going to get that guy who you are saying “damn, if you have him you are winning half your games just by putting that player in your lineup”. So with that said, I think there’s STRONG consideration to not forcing a RB in both of your first two picks more than ever before this season. There’s good value in the middle rounds for running backs and plenty of decent guys who are falling.

MID RANGE TARGETS

I’m always more of a fan of a RB who’s team actually lets him catch the ball and that is no different for me this season, but I find that Running Back is more about who you are fading than who you are targeting because where you pick in the first round is going to determine whether or not you have a shot at half the field. I mean, we all are targeting CMC aren’t we? Duuh. Here are guys to target beyond the top 3 rounds.

Javante Williams (DEN) and Michael Carter (NYJ)

For those of us who were big into College DFS we are going to find out really fast what was the true power of the North Carolina rushing game last season. Was it these two stud backs, the offensive line, the threat of a pro style QB and top WR’s? Well, I am of the school that it was all of the above and Williams/Carter are two guys who are going to translate very well into the pro-game. They each have paths to getting a good work of playing time and have been impressing with their opportunities thus far in camp. Get them both, Williams early as your RB2 and Carter late as your RB3, he should take over once his pass protection is comfortable enough to trust.

Trey Sermon (SF)

I can’t sit here and pound my chest about the Shanahan scheme and how it benefits running backs and not write up this years darling of the draft Trey Sermon. While, yes, I am still a believer that they will utilize multiple backs we shouldn’t be overlooking what Sermon did when he got out of a pass first offense in Oklahoma and was utilized with a good rushing scheme at Ohio State. He should translate extremely well here in San Francisco and where he + Moestert are going you can easily get them both.

Late Sleepers to steal from your opponents

A lot of stock is put into handcuffing your Running Backs, but I offer that in leagues with deeper benches you should be stealing backups that have upside from your opponents. We know guys will go down to injury all the time and if you can capitalize on a good player getting an opportunity then do it.

Alexander Mattison
Tony Pollard

IDEAL GUYS TO GET

Alvin Kamara

Time and time again the Saints have shown that when AK41 is the game plan they feed him over and over in the goal line. I expect the number of those games to come down this season but he still has the best upside on any given week of any player.

Christian McCaffrey

Ditto CMC, provided he stays healthy. O-Line is still a problem in Carolina.

I listed AK41 and CMC for the sole purpose of someone who does have a top 5 pick and wondering who I would be targetting there. Ideally you are picking lower and can start with 1 RB and 1 WR, in which case, these are the RB at the back end that I am most interested in.

Nick Chubb

In the case of Chubb you really should try get Hunt if you draft him and don’t be afraid to start them both in certain weeks. That said, Chubb is one of my favorite auction targets at RB this season and a lot of it is based on the fact that the Browns offense has all the confidence in the world after finally doing it a season ago – along with a second year in the same system and the best rushing offensive line in the AFC. They’re going to do it again and Chubb was on pace for 1500 and 16 last season before his injury — and that was with Hunt there.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

A classic case of recency bias. CEH was all the rage coming into drafts a year ago and simply because he didn’t have the high TD volume everyone ran away. This is still a great RB system and someone who is going to produce very well. I just prefer WR where he is going.

Highly Ranked RB I am not touching

Dalvin Cook

Unless you are in a spot where Cook just falls, I am taking AK41, Henry, Zeke, CMC all ahead of Dalvin and it’s not a knock at all on Cook as a talent I just dont think the Vikings are a high scoring team this year because they don’t need to be.

Jonathan Taylor

Taylor needs a ton of volume, he will struggle early and come on late similar to how Derrick Henry does every year. I’ll pass.

Saquon Barkley

I am out on the Giants as a whole until I see something real from Daniel Jones. We have a ton of other spots to buy into and this is not one I am fond of. Coaching situation remains a mess for me as well.

Joe Mixon

While I like Burrow and his weapons for sure, the defense is going to keep them in situations where they are trailing and Mixon’s going to have lots of 60 yard games with no TD. There’s no reason to be taking him over some of the top tier WR’s in the first two rounds.

Guys falling too much

Josh Jacobs

Should keep Kenyan Drake back as the RB2. Don’t sleep on getting Jacobs as your 2nd RB after you got high end WR.

Myles Gaskin

When you have a balanced offense, a good defense and a team who believes it can win you will get solid production. Myles Gaskin is the clear back in Miami and yet nobody is touching him because why? He doesn’t have fancy moves? Salvon Ahmed and Malcolm Brown? No chance I see them taking away from Gaskin who is the Dolphins best athlete in the backfield and if they are smart will be the 70% RB to a 30% Gerrid Doaks (I’m a Doaks mark in case you never read my college stuff, hope he makes the team but its a long shot, do not draft him).

Chris Carson

Due to injuries a season ago Carson failed to rush for over 1100 yards for a third year in a row. We have to assume some health and in a contract season he is someone I would project for 1300 yards and 8 touchdowns. I’ll take that balanced production every day of the week. And for those of you wondering about the projections — remember we have an extra game this year.

Ronald Jones

Could this finally be the year? The Bucs have continued to shape their offensive line into a much better unit now that they want to protect their QB and I have no confidence that Len Fournette is gonna stay healthy in the regular season. Ronald Jones will have many good weeks and eventually I think we see a shift to Tampa employing a 3-RB situation, but if there are any injuries to Fournette (which you know there will be) then Jones is going to be an RB1 with Vaughn likely behind him.

Biggest Busts of them all

Mike Davis

This is the worst pick in fantasy football 2021. Possibly the worst pick in the history of fantasy football. Do. Not. Touch.

Ideal Backfield Draft

Nick Chubb (1st)

Myles Gaskin/Chris Carson (4th) or Trey Sermon (7th)

You would either take one of these guys in the 4th or come back with Sermon in the 7th

Javonte Williams (6th)

His stock is rising, so the 6th round is quickly becoming a little too late for Williams.

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