Full Breakdowns By Position

WR STRATEGY

In 2021 Wide Receiver appears to be the deepest position in fantasy football, but this doesn’t necessarily mean that you should automatically wait on WR, it just means that I find this to be the deepest position when it comes to potential. A lot of this is driven by the fact that we have seen a recent influx of young high end talent coming into the league at this position the last few years. The general theme in the past two drafts has been how deep it was at Wide Receiver. As you look around the rankings and hype for WR this year you’ll notice a ton of young players rising up the rankings. Metcalf, Ridley, Brown, Jefferson, McLaurin, Lamb, Aiyuk, Claypool, Chase, Smith, Jeudy, Samuel, Shenault, Waddle, etc., etc. etc. Those are all very talented players who seemingly can be valuable assets in fantasy if all things are going well and they’re all relatively young in terms of NFL experience. And honestly, that’s just half the list at best. It’s a deep position, but it’s also one where we are highly more likely to get consistent production from the top 10 than we would at RB or TE (minus Kittle/Kelce at TE). So I am not waiting on wide receivers and often times will be looking to get 3 WR before the 5th round.

THIS YEARS STUD – WR #1

In 2018 if you had Tyreek Hill you were golden. In 2019 if you had Michael Thomas you were golden. In 2020 if you had Davante Adams you were golden. So who is this years stud that is going to do it every single week, without question? With these high end spots there is often times plenty of options to choose from, because by nature of the position there’s so many points spread out in passing games and generally there is less risk associated with taking WR in the early rounds than there is at RB (hence why I want 3 WR in my top 5 picks).

But this is an article about my advice and my predictions, so let’s make a stand on who will be the STUD WR that is most consistent this year, and the answer is …

D.K. Metcalf – Seattle

DK checks all the boxes that are common when evaluating WR who are going to take another step forward and in his case it’s hard to really take much of a step forward considering he has an ADP around 18-20 and is a well known physically dominant player. But he is the valued third year WR who has taken strides late in his rookie season and in his second year, and in many ways he is on the same trajectory as Michael Thomas was. Both were second round picks who fell in the draft for various reasons. Both are players who excel at winning physically in 1:1 battles – Thomas is 6’3 – 215 while Metcalf is 6’3 and about 230. Both had/have extremely accurate Quarterbacks who will prioritize getting them the ball. I speak obviously in past tense with Thomas and Brees but it’s for the purposes of drawing a little comparison to the potential stats that Metcalf could put up.

Obviously someone like Metcalf has more break away and big play vertical speed and ability than Thomas so his yardage numbers will outweigh the fewer receptions but Seattle has a good offense that will be more balanced and open potential for Metcalf to have a 100 reception, 1500 yard and 12+ TD season. There’s zero reason in my mind right now to expect Metcalf to not perform at the same level as Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs and others going ahead of him and almost no matter where you are picking in drafts you should be able to get him. Would I take him in the first round? Absolutely. I would take him as my #1 WR and only would consider taking CMC, Kamara or Kelce ahead of Metcalf.

D.ont K.nock Metcalf, he is this years #1 WR.

The other high end WR I would take in an ‘auction’ format or if you are in a really bad draft where they fall: Tyreek Hill (duh), Davante Adams (duh).

FINDING UPSIDE

The next big decision with the Wide Receiver position is finding players who have the most upside. Unlike the RB spot, WR is less about opportunity and more about ability because in the long run the players who have ability to beat man and zone coverages will perform over the long haul. I honestly wish this article had come out a week ago now because after last Monday Night, my big time sleeper Marquez Callaway is no longer sliding down draft boards. That said, I did go on record long before his 2 TD pre-season performance saying that he would out score Terry McLaurin in PPR this season and I stick by that stance. It’s not a knock on McLaurin, but it’s a belief that a player like Callaway has talent to go along with an increase in opportunity/role with Thomas out and is in a good offensive system.

To me the ability for a player to excel as a upside WR hinges on two big overlooked factors. First is the play of the offensive line. Teams can scheme up a run blocking system to get their running backs production and running backs need volume to get their total production. Wide Receivers have fewer chances and in order to deliver a big play they’re going to need a QB who is upright and can deliver the ball to them. So sorry all you Atlanta Falcon truthers, but no I have zero desire for anyone who isn’t Calvin Ridley on that team because all the good targets will go to Ridley and everything else will result in a Matt Ryan sack. The second overlooked factor is the teams pace and system. I love the Cleveland Browns this season, and I love Nick Chubb but in no circumstances do I want to heavily invest in their Wide Receivers. They just aren’t going to be that team who needs to air it out every single week by style, so while they have a really good offensive line, a balanced offense, a good Quarterback and talent at WR, I’m certainly not going to want Landry, DPJ or Odell Beckham as one of my starting WR that I am counting on every single week. Love the players, but it just won’t translate into fantasy gold.

So here are the players which I believe have a ton of upside this season. In short, this is my target list of BUYS

Tier 1

CeeDee Lamb (DAL) … After Metcalf, Lamb is the player I am prioritizing the most. He is the clear #1 now in Dallas in my mind as Cooper often misses time due to injury and Lamb is coming off a 70+ catch, 900+ yard season in which Dak Prescott missed most of the year. Assuming Dak is going to be healthy (a big assumption yes, but one I feel good a bout) then Lamb should vault up even higher in his second season. Cowboys O-Line is going to be better as well and they’ll play fast. Don’t let him pass you.

Diontae Johnson (PIT) … This is Ben’s favorite WR target and should be valued as a high end WR

A.J. Brown (TEN) … The other side of the Ole Miss combination with Metcalf, Brown is getting knocked down slightly because of Julio coming to town but I believe it only helps him.

D.J. Moore (CAR) … With Curtis Samuel gone, hopefully some of the inside the 20 touchdowns that went to Samuel will come back to Moore.

Marquez Callaway (NO) … With Thomas missing some time Callaway’s stock shot up for me. It’s the door opening for him to step up and this isn’t based upon pre-season performances. I had said as far back as April that the Saints offense was going to be just fine this season and the WR depth chart that I had was Thomas-Tre’Quan-Harris-Callaway. Deonte Harris is your best ball guy who is going to get 4 or 5 games with a 50 to 60 yard touchdown where he shines. Tre’Quan is just a low end WR who you are never going to wind up feeling comfortable about starting. But the Thomas/Callaway role is the player who can dominate leagues and with Thomas missing time it has opened the door for Callaway to prove that the Saints simply cannot take him off the field and out of the game plan. He was very good in 2020 in limited time both against zone and man coverages and has speed which Thomas does not have when/if MT does come back this season from his ankle injury. Callaway will dominate the target share in this offense and is a must own.

Tier 2

Deebo Samuel (SF) … Would be a Tier 1 play if not for the high running volume this team will have.

Jerry Jeudy (DEN)

Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) … He is falling due to a really bad camp so far, but the light bulb is going to go on and he won’t look back.

Mike Williams (LAC) … With my love for Herbert, comes love for both Williams and Mr. PPR machine Keenan Allen.

Michael Pittman Jr (IND)

DeVante Parker (MIA) … I don’t get why Parker is falling so low to be honest with you. Fuller and Waddle do not fit with what Tua brings to the table as much as Parker does, he will not kill youfor drafting him.

ROOKIE TARGETS

There will no doubt once again be some rookies who shine at the WR position, and with another deep class coming in we should expect some good performances from the rookie class once again.

Elijah Moore (NYJ)

Rondale Moore (ARI)

Dyami Brown (WSH)

Terrance Marshall Jr (CAR)

FADES

Stefon Diggs

Justin Jefferson

Mike Evans

Amari Cooper

Kenny Golladay

#AlwaysFadeOdell

CORE WR To Target

DK Metcalf

Ceedee Lamb

Diontae Johnson

Marquez Callaway

Mike Williams

← More NFL articles