Where oh where to go tonight, there are 17 games all in total today with two double-headers driving up that number. First, from last night the Brewers and Cubs are playing a day-night tilt in Chicago, which is awesome and the only way the Cubs should play double headers. This means the second game will be only 7 innings but it is included on FanDuel becauase they had set the slate before the rain out last night, they must be extremely terrified and have responded by firing the intern they just hired yesterday.
The other double header is a fun one as the Jays and Angels are making up a rain out from a game that was down in Tampa earlier this season. It feels like years ago since that series happened, so long ago that we probably stacked Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon and Albert Pujols in that game. My how times have changed. The first game of the DH will be played with the Jays as the home team even in Anaheim and the second game will be normal but also only 7 innings. The second game is included on the DraftKings slate.
Got it? Cool.
Dongers Club Appreciation Championship – Qualifier #2
https://www.draftkings.com/draft/contest/111547142
WEATHER
All games play and all games look very good for a relatively high scoring night.
Not much of a night to be paying up for a stud pitcher today. Max Scherzer is back on the east coast taking on the last team he saw before making his Dodgers debut and that would be the white hot Phillies in warm Philadelphia. This is a pitchers duel on paper vs Aaron Nola, but we want no part of either of these top end pitchers tonight. Yes, they offer pretty good strikeout upside, but the risk of damage is not worth it in my mind.
One might wonder if the two guys in the 7-inning DH games make sense? Well, the choices are Aaron Ashby (Milwaukee) and Alec Mills (Cubs) with 13+ mph winds out in Wrigley or Ross Stripling (Blue Jays) and Jose Suarez (Angels). Stripling is $9,500 before you consider him. So no, I am not going there for a cheap and easy route.
So lets dig in…
SONNY GRAY
Sonny has always historically been very good about limiting home runs and the entire Braves offense thrives on the long ball. Freeman has been “nursing?” an infection or something weird so he has been in and out of the lineup of late, Austin Riley has cooled off somewhat and Sonny has a high K% against LHB this season so Albies, Joc and Vogt all are good strikeout targets. The only downside on Gray is that I hate paying 10k for him because he’s not a 110 pitch guy, but I like him to fly under the radar with a good game tonight — even though I would much rather spend down on pitching. I do also expect Drew Smyly to have one of his better games in this same game tonight.
ZAC GALLEN
If today was April 1st, Gallen would be a chalky pitcher against the Giants in San Francisco. So what has changed in 4.5 months? Well, for starters the Giants are in first place and the Diamondbacks are in last place, which half of that we expected at the start of the season but the Giants having career years from many of their hitters has been a major shock and is understandably a good reason to be worried on Gallen today. However, the larger issue with Gallen that many will have is that his stock has fallen mostly due to injuries this season. But his last month worth of starts paint a picture towards someone who is very healthy now and poised to finish the season strong. He just saw the Giants six days ago and tossed 109 pitches, which followed a 100 pitch outing vs the Dodgers. Two good offenses that he was able to generate a respctive 26% CSW against. If he can keep the walks down vs the Giants he can deliver a safe value at $7,100 and gives you the same likely result as a popular Logan Gilbert for Seattle.
The duel between Max & Nola
If you go one, you go both, it is that simple. This game will finish 7-6 or 2-1. I personally lean it finishing more in the 7-6 range so I am going neither, but if you are tempted to trust one, trust them both.
Also can see pitching okay
Dallas Keuchel … How many times will the White Sox broadcast say “and another quick 1-2-3 inning for Keuchel tonight” while he posts scores that put you to sleep with no strikeouts and no hits allowed all game long. Booorrrinng, but okay.
Daniel Lynch … Applying my “hey, we haven’t seen this guy before” theory on both sides of this game. Neither team has seen the other lefty and for that reason I expect both pitchers to cruise along early in a lower scoring game in Kauffman stadium.
Okay so offense should be a plenty tonight, right? Right??? Well, yes, but there’s no clear angle on stacking vs spreading out today. I definitely see it being a spread out night with so many various options out there, but going all in on one team to anchor your lineup makes a ton of sense for a few teams tonight, specifically …
DETROIT TIGERS
Schoop, Miggy, Candelario
Don’t give me Detroit stinks vs LHP nonsense. Keegan Akin for a beating is horrific and not someone who is going to last long in Camden Yards in his career. His weakness is RH bats and Miguel Cabrera trucking into Camden really owes us that home run. Detroit hits a bunch of bombs tonight.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Robert, Anderson, Abreu, Moncada
They are on an absolute tear right now, as we fully anticipated with Eloy/Robert coming back and while Eloy is on fire, I think the sharp play no doubt is Luis Robert batting lower in the order yes, but at $3,400 he profiles just as well against Griffin Jax and the Twins bullpen has not been good. Upper 80’s in Minnesota so the ball in the air is going to travel well.
OAKLAND ATHLETICS
Canha, Marte, Olson, Lowrie, Brown
Sometimes you gotta trust the model over being cute and Triston McKenzie was someone who has the ability to strike out a ton of guys every night, but in this match-up really really grades out horribly. He’s actually struggled big time with RH bats and the pitch type breakdown screams Oakland putting up a big game vs Cleveland today. Only one main LiC play in Matt Olson and the position is very deep, so consider this a FanDuel stack to get Olson in with other 1B on this slate, but Canha, Marte, Olson, Lowrie all together make a nice build today.
CARDS vs PIRATES
Goldy, Arenado, O’Neill … Stallings, Hayes, Reynolds
Death. Taxes. Cards vs Pirates overs! We have great wind in Pittsburgh blowing out to left field, two bad lefty pitchers and a nice juicy 9.5 total to smash the over on tonight. 17 games today, and I love the mother effin Pirates!
Other really favorable hitting spots
Tampa vs Toronto … We get to see Tampa vs an adequate LHP in E-Fraud tonight now that they have Cruz in the lineup. Should be good game for HR upside on both sides of the ball, but not a full stack scenario.
Dodgers vs Phillies … Cody (call me Roadie) Bellinger is heating up. The drop to the bottom of the order along with a trip to the east coast is getting him going. I really love the Dodgers to come in and just pound the Phillies tonight but Nola for certain will have his A game on as well, so just cherry pick exposure here. Bellinger, Seager and Trea are the plays.
CATCHER
- Jacob Stallings
- Eric Haase
- Austin Hedges
FIRST BASE
- Miguel Cabrera
- Matt Olson
- Cody Bellinger
SECOND BASE
- Mookie Betts – Scratched. Was my favorite sneaky play. Oh well.
- Jonathan Schooooop
- Tommy Edman
- Jed Lowrie
THIRD BASE
Weirdest position tonight. Not one person is a must play here at all..
- KeBryan Hayes .. Sorry ‘Nado, but KBH gets the nod here because of a $1400 savings and J.A. Happppp
- Jeimer Candelario
- Nolan Arenado
SHORTSTOP
- Tim Anderson – Abreu torch passed to Anderson and Eloy
- Corey Seager
- Amed Rosario
OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore
- Franmil … Just … Franmil
- Luis Robert … While everyone chases Eloy, its Robert that I see busting out for a multi-hit game tonight.
- Robbie Grossman … The lead off spot looks mighty good on him being chalky today.
- Bryan Reynolds
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Eloy Jimenez
- Starling Marte
- Tyler O’Neill
- Mitch Haniger
OUTFIELD – Value
- Seth Brown
- Chips a Hoy Park
- Manuel Margot
- Ketel Marte
The Dongers Club
- Luis Robert – OF – White Sox – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Franmil Reyes – OF – Indians
- Miguel Cabrera – 1B – Tigers
- Jonathan Schoop – 2B – Tigers
- Tim Anderson – SS – White Sox
- Austin Hedges – C – Indians
- Ke’Bryan Hayes – 3B – Pirates
- Seth Brown – OF – Athletics
- BONUS …………………. Matt Olson – 1B – Athletics
BETS
- Pirates/Cardinals OVER 9.5
- Detroit Tigers ML
- Chicago White Sox ML
HR Parlay
- Mookie Betts
- Luis Robert
- Miguel Cabrera
- Franmil Reyes
The Chalkiest Stacks
White Sox, Yankees, Tigers
Good Teams Getting Overlooked
Athletics, Dodgers, Rays
Best Leverage Play against Chalk
Oakland
Favorite DK Pitching Combinations
Gallen & Gray
FAVORITE HITTERS
Luis Robert
Mookie Betts
Miguel Cabrera
KeBryan Hayes