$9,000 and Above
Jon Rahm & Jordan Spieth
Rahm: $11,500 | Spieth: $10,800
OK folks, we are now in the Playoffs and this will be the last tournament with a two-day cut. And, of course, the pricing sucks! Especially if you are someone that thinks the big names are the only ones we can pick. Normally, I wouldn’t do this, but I think these two guys are playing the best right now.
Jon Rahm – I’ve read some things where touts are saying go with Jon Rahm. He’s the best player in the world right now. Personally, I’m not one of those people. In fact, I hate the statistical determination of a “World #1” when we all know that any of these guys at $9,000 and up could absolutely win this week. Rahm, however, has made 17 out of 18 cuts this year, has 11 Top 10s, and has recent form that shows his last three events at T3, 7, Win. It’s hard to argue with that! My only argument – and hesitation – is the $11,500 price tag.
Jordan Spieth – As of late, I haven’t seen anyone playing as consistently as Jordan Spieth. Liberty National Golf Club requires an excellent short game. Guess who has that? He putts great most of the time anyway, but even better on bentgrass – gaining almost ¼ of a stroke. Guess what type of grass is at Liberty National?
To be perfectly honest with all of you, Jordan Spieth is probably my favorite pick in this tier this week. I just have to put Rahm up there because I think I would have to put my money on him to win. Still, you can pick any guy at $9,000 and above and I can make an argument for and against starting your lineup with them.
The killer here is, don’t pick a guy that won’t make the cut! We all know that at least two of these guys probably won’t. They will all most likely make the Top 70 if they don’t which sometimes causes them to lose focus. Look at the FedEx rankings. If one of these guys are borderline, he will be the one grinding. TRUST ME – he doesn’t exist this week!
Additional Play(s) to Consider
- Viktor Hovland ($9,500) – Made 20/22 cuts and has 8 Top 10s
- Xander Schauffele ($10,600) – I’ve just never seen X “phone it in”
- Anyone else is fine too – sorry, not much help in this tier this week
$7,500 to $8,900
Patrick Reed & Paul Casey
Reed: $8,600 | Casey: $8,700
This tier is the answer to the old Wendy’s commercial – “Where’s the Beef?” The average price per golfer on DraftKings is $8,333 – essentially the mean price this price range. Honestly, taking six guys in this tier probably won’t kill you. However, it’s not quite as sexy is it?
Patrick Reed – Remember the analysis on Jordan Spieth above? Well, that’s Patrick Reed and he’s $2,200 cheaper. He’s been hit or miss as far as position finishes and making cuts, but when it comes to being competitive and aggressive you don’t find much more fire in this price range – except for maybe Ian Poulter! Patrick Reed in the $8K price range is a steal 99 times out of 100! He can come from this grouping and WIN the tournament.
Paul Casey – He’s performed well in big tournaments – the PGA (T4), the US Open (T7), Olympics (T5) and WGC-St Jude’s (T5). Paul Casey also reminds me a lot of Jordan Spieth. You don’t see a lot of “flash” from Paul Casey, but he always seems to be there when it’s time to compete.
Additional Plays to Consider
- Cameron Smith ($8,500) – may need a stylist, but doesn’t need anything golf-related.
- Adam Scott ($8,400) – Seems to be rounding back into form and has made 17/18 cuts.
- Tyrrell Hatton ($7,800) – Plays well on comparable courses.
- Sungjae Im ($7,800) – No flash and probably lower owned
- Ian Poulter ($7,700) – Really? You thought I wasn’t going to mention him! Plus, he has some ground to make up to be Top 70! Honey badger time!!!!
- Shane Lowry ($7,500) – 13 straight cuts and 4 straight Top 25s yet few probably notice.
$7,400 and Under
Branden Grace & Jhonattan Vegas
Grace: $7,200 | Vegas: $7,100
A little better selection-wise than last week, but I think this is still a “find a cut-maker” tier.
Branden Grace was my pick here last week and, if you followed that pick, you had a guy that made the sudden-death playoff for the win. With 115 fantasy points for $7,400, I think you got your money’s worth. I think it’s the same thing this week.
Jhonnie Vegas is $700 cheaper this week than he was last week! With the T15 last week, he has four Top 20s in a row and 3 out of 4 Top 15s. I don’t think anyone is outplaying his pricing any more than Vegas.
I’m all over these two plays this week for saving salary.
Additional Play(s) to Consider
- Sepp Straka ($6,400) – He has seemingly returned to the land of the living golfers since his T10 at the Olympics. Since May, he’s been boom or bust. But, if you want multiple guys from the Top Pricing Tier, YOU NEED HIM ON THAT WALL! YOU WANT HIM ON THAT WALL!…….Sorry, but it’s the truth!
- Stewart Cink ($7,100)
- Seamus Power ($7,000) – Disappointing T60 last week, but still playing solid golf!
- Matthew Wolff ($7,100) – At this price, if he plays like he can, major value!
- Carlos Ortiz ($6,900) – Tons of potential at this price.
FADE
I hate the fade calls. It’s expected that I should tell you to fade someone above $9,000. If I tell you to fade someone under that, it feels like a cop out. So, to satisfy the need:
- Patrick Cantlay – He’s in 3rd in the standings. I’m really not sure how until I look at his play since May. But, he’s also missed 5 cuts in 19 events. He’s the one in this group that I can see not playing his best knowing that it really doesn’t matter much.
Look for some more surprises this week as guys jockey for position.