$9,000 and above
Will Zalatoris & Jason Kokrak
Zalatoris: $10,300 | Kokrak: $10,000
We are now getting into the weeks where your position in the FedEx rankings REAALLLLLY matters! If you’re not in the Top 125 after this week, you don’t play in The Northern Trust next week or the week after that, or the week after that.
Will Zalatoris – one of the hottest guys on Tour right now! Should fare well in the FedEx Playoffs, right? NOPE! IF, and I said if, his points counted, he would currently be 13th in the standings. However, he is not a full PGA Tour member. Say what? He’s been playing all year! Problem is that he’s been playing very well on what is called a “special temporary membership”.
Now, here’s where my play and narrative come into the light. He CAN make the FedEx Playoffs if he wins a PGA Tour event. This is obviously a boom or bust play this week since this is his last chance. But, I’m thinking the he will be firing at every flag and trying to post a very low number. My call is that he succeeds at this which equals “points for days”. Obviously, he’s made 90% of the cuts in events he has entered so I’m not grasping at straws either. My call: Will goes low and if he isn’t on the first page of the leaderboard going into the weekend, he will be on Sunday.
Jason Kokrak – I know you are all muttering to yourselves – what? Why? You have Matsuyama, Oosthuizen, Simpson and Reed right there! Agreed! All good plays and all well positioned to advance next week even if they miss the cut. Simpson may be in the worst position, but he’d have to fall over 60 spots. Plus, I think he is chalk! So, I’m playing the local narrative here.
Additional Play(s) to Consider
- Webb Simpson ($10,600) – I do think he will be highly owned
- Louis Oosthuizen ($10,700)
- Matthew Wolff ($9,300) – Playing much better after his little “comfort” issue on the course. He was struggling a little with his mental game.
NOTE: Patrick Reed has withdrawn. This is exactly what I was getting at above when I said guys are “well positioned to advance to next week”. You have to watch this when the Playoffs start. You only need to be Top 30 to make the Tour Championship. As long as there is no way you can fall outside the next level to advance, players will rest and practice.
$7,500 to $8,900
Seamus Power & Mito Pereira
Power: $8,500 | Pereira: $7,900
You all know me well enough by now to know that I’m not one to go with the obvious unless I have a very strong feeling about them. Damn the stats! Golf is at least 50% “where is you head” when you tee it up!
Seamus Power used to be a guy that I flocked to every week he played. One, he was a good player. Two, he was always priced middle of the pack to low-middle – Salary Saver! Now, I said “was” a good player. Something happened. Not sure what, but he disappeared. That is until April of 2021. After a T9 at a Korn Ferry event in April, he gone T54, T9, T19, T19, T8, T8, and Win on the PGA Tours. Now, yes, the win was the Barbasol Championship while the big names were in England. However, you do realize that ALL of these guys are good, right? A win is a win is a win! At $8,500 – I DON’T NEED NO STINKING WIN!!
Mito Pereira is now my favorite “Vowel-Endowed” player on the Tour. He’s not full-time and he doesn’t need to worry about FedEx points. He’ll go back to Europe next week or the Korn Ferry Tour. Still, he’s been play with the big boys since July. After a missed cut at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, he’s gone T34, T5, T6, T4 and T39! That was after winning back-to-back on the Korn Ferry. Much like Seamus, I’m going to play this guy in this price range until he disappoints me for multiple weeks. At $7,900, I think he’s a steal!
Additional Plays to Consider
- Robert Macintyre ($8,900) – may be priced a little high, but 3 Top 20s in his last 4 events probably justifies a tick up.
- Justin Rose ($8,000) – He’s hard to pass on when he’s this low – and I can’t believe he’s below Rickie Fowler. Needs to pick up 13 spots too to advance!
- Sebastian Munoz ($8,200) – T4 at the Olympics and seems confident.
- Jhonnie Vegas ($7,800) – This dude has been lights out for a guy in this price range. In fact, Jhonnie and Mito as a start will give you a good average salary for your last 4.
- Hank Lebioda ($7,600) – He was playing so well until he had to withdraw from the 3M Open after making the cut. No one, and I mean no one, should bitch either because it was a family matter and DFS is not more important than that. I’m hoping for a return to the same form that the left in. Emotionally, there may be some risk.
$7,400 and Under
Branden Grace & Rory Sabbatini
Grace: $7,400 | Sabbatini: $7,300
Yeah, this price range is back to “we just need to make a cut”!
Both of these guys are playing well enough to make the cut. Sabbatini has to advance 16 places to make it to the Top 125. After his performance at the Olympics, I can see him doing that with a Top 30 performance here.
Grace on the other hand is currently 56th and looks good to advance. His game is stable in making 4 of his last 5 cuts with 3 of those being Top 30s. I don’t expect lights out play, but he is capable of it and could very well have a strong finish.
Additional Play(s) to Consider
- Sepp Straka ($7,100)
- Scott Piercy ($7,000)
- Roger Sloan ($6,700)
- Chesson Hadley ($6,600) – Playing the local narrative here. His making cuts – barely! He did finish T2 at the last Carolina event.
FADE
My only basis to fade anyone at the top this week would be pricing and being chalk. That being said, I’ll probably have very little of Webb Simpson if I have any. I’m not playing near as many lineups lately so, the latter will probably be true. It’s a long season and we’re getting to the point where cuts don’t matter that much. Yeah! I caved and played Webb in a lineup on FanDuel!
Look for some surprises this week as guys jockey for position. If you haven’t noticed, a lot of the “locked in” guys are taking a week off. Can’t blame them. It’s going to be intense!