Welcome to Week 1 of the NFL season and the signature NFL article The Ambush for all your DFS informational needs. This article comes out every Saturday afternoon ahead of the MAIN Sunday slates and is designed to be the all-inclusive, everything I can share with you breakdown on the action for the NFL weekend.
I will dive into all the auxiliary information that is note worthy such as weather, injuries, scheduling oddities, teams travel plans, etc.
We’ll cover the ownership across the industry and highlight where applicable why someone is projected to be highly owned versus low owned.
I will go over anything that is relevant on the primary DFS sites as it pertains to contest selection and how you should be structuring your lineups for that week. If there is a general strategy on how to build lineups on a given site for a week I’ll mention it. If there’s a difference between two similarly prized contests that warrants attention, I’ll mention it. If there’s someone I need to call out for being a fraud DFS tout, I’ll mention it. Because despite what someone else says, they didn’t invent DFS or providing content for football just because they were born with a spot on SiriusXM radio doing broadcasts from their parents basement.
Enough with the sales pitch, you are already here, let’s get down to business.
WEATHER AND NOTABLES
Fairly warm as usual in Week 1 everywhere, but the good news is that we don’t have any major rain or thunderstorm issues around the league. Ironically, Buffalo is one spot where there could be some storms that could pop in and cause a lightning delay, but otherwise all games look fine. It’s a great weekend.
I would also expect every stadium to do some really great 9/11 tributes tomorrow and games will be starting sluggish around the league but having capacity crowds in most stadiums is going to be the biggest thing we see in Week 1. Advantage has to go to the home teams.
INJURIES TO MONITOR
We’re not going to list out every potential injury each week but rather just the one’s who could impact the plays we are on and in week one — there are no injuries we are monitoring as of now. By now anyone who has already been ruled out is already known, so no need wasting space with that additional information on someone like Michael Thomas who everyone knows is out this week. That said, I will mention these following notables
- Saquan Barkley expected to play for Giants
OWNERSHIP INFORMATION
Moving forward this is transitioning over to the NFL Dashboard and will just be a report there starting next week. Players in BOLD are heavy chalk on the respective sites
DraftKings Chalk: Jalen Hurts, CMC, Mike Davis, Antonio Gibson, Marquez Callaway, Tee Higgins, Stefon Diggs, Marvin Jones, Kyle Pitts
FanDuel Chalk (excl DK guys): Mahomes, Allen, Mixon, Dalvin Cook, James Robinson, Calvin Ridley, Travis Kelce
What are The Ambush plays? These my top five favorite plays or themes of the week to use as an anchor when building out a lineup. Can you roll all five Ambush plays together into a single lineup? Absolutely. But you shouldn’t just ignore the positional rankings as your CORE build while the Ambush plays tend to be the ones which I feel will provide the most upside for doing more than just kissing your sister by 2x’ing your measly cash games.
GROUND AND DAWG POUND
Early in the season of every sport you should be more proactive about buying into teams instead of being reactive to what you have seen. Following along pre-season style of play is generally a recipe for disaster and I will block most of that out but it’s important to find teams who have been trending in the right direction for multiple seasons when projecting who can out perform expectations early. This time a year ago there were many who liked the Buffalo Bills but nobody was really secure enough to push them into the AFC Championship game. This year, there are a bunch who will like the Cleveland Browns but won’t push them into big things.
Not me. The AFC Champion is coming out of this match-up and I don’t think it involves the team with a mascot who looks like he ate too many cheeseburgers in the off-season. Yes, the Browns are arriving to make their next big step forward in the second year under Kevin Stefanski. You are taking an offense built behind a top 3 offensive line with two dynamic running backs, three quality receivers and a COMPETITIVE WINNER at Quarterback in Baker Mayfield. Put your Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, Justin Fields, Trey Lance, Jalen Hurts hype machines aside. Baker Mayfield is going to step into the next tier at Quarterback and it begins week one as the Browns roll into Kansas City and beat the Chiefs in fairly explosive game.
A season ago the Chiefs defense still struggled with stopping the run consistently and the deep vertical game. Cleveland can do both with the Chubb-Hunt combination and enough of a vertical game from Odell Beckham and this years breakout star Donovan Peoples-Jones. It will amount to Baker Mayfield accounting for 3 Browns touchdowns, Nick Chubb reaching 100 yards and a touchdown and the Browns winning a game we can stack up for Main and in the 4PM slate.
The Chiefs will stay in this game because last I checked Mahomes is still alive and well and Travis Kelce should feast against the Browns funnel to the Tight Ends. Cleveland yielded 90 catches on 127 targets to Tight Ends a season ago, Kelce is affordable because of value everywhere else in week one and if we aren’t paying for him now in a scenario that should have a lot of plays ran then when will we? This is a HUGE statement game for the Browns against the Super Bowl hangover losers.
Ambush Play #1: The Cleveland Browns make a big opening week statement. It won’t be 66-59, but this is the best game of the week.
THE 2017 DRAFT RB STUDS DO THEIR THING
I have labeled 2021 as the year of the Wide Receiver, which is somewhat of a shot at the high priced Running Backs being closer to human instead of the insane elite fantasy producers like they have been the past few seasons in particular. But that narrative doesn’t mean Dalvin Cook is going to stop getting the primary bulk of work from the Minnesota Vikings and when he is healthy he is about as sure of a runner as we have.
Minnesota has always tried to be balanced on offense due to a lack of consistent Quarterback play, but they have to be more balanced in 2021 to help out a defense which is getting revamped on the fly and was destroyed in 2020. The best way to do that is to lean on your star RB who had over 20 carries in all but four games a year ago. He’s healthy and should more than eat against the Bengals defense.
The other two studs who have survived the 2017 draft class for Running Backs are Christian McCaffery and Alvin Kamara. CMC more than fits into that remember me category in one sense, but he’s also not exactly being ignored by anyone and with Sam Darnold in a revenge spot against his former Jets I would suspect he leans on CMC enough to justify his price. We can afford to pay for the high end Running Backs due to the incredible value everywhere in Week 1 and you can find a cheap mid range option to fit in as well, but by no means should we be ignoring CMC. Kamara is going to catch a ton of balls for New Orleans, but I don’t see him having the huge touchdown performances that he had a year ago this week. So of these big three from the 2017 class, Cook and CMC are the plays.
Ambush Play #2: Dalvin Cook and Christian McCaffery each score twice.
ALL VALUE IS NOT GOOD VALUE
The ownership report is critical in week one and generally it is one of the more chalky weeks out there because projections have been circulated around the industry long enough, combined with pricing discounts due to injuries and depth chart changes forcing people into certain plays. But each of these value “chalky” plays comes with some caution and we won’t have this many choices as the value buffet menu again all season — so take a gamble here and consider your pivots wisely.
Marquez Callaway: You are reading the article of someone who went on Twitter and made a bunch of decent sized bets this season that Marquez Callaway would outscore Terry McLaurin in YTD PPR points. That was BEFORE his break out MNF pre-season game against the Chargers. But this aint that week fellas. I’ll save the full analysis on Callaway’s potential that I saw in him mid last season when he debuted and into his growth now NEXT week when he eats in their second game. But this week he’ll deal with primary coverage responsibilities for Jaire Alexander which is enough to limit his explosive ceiling game. And when the ceiling is limited for a 40% player, I look for alternate routes. In the same game, Ty Montgomery could out target Callaway as he plays out of the slot quite a bit – but he’s a RB in DFS still for some reason so the pivot in this same game is the same sleeper I had for this game as far back as May when the schedule came out and that is the speedy Deonte Harris catching a 45 yard TD pass from Jameis Winston and outscoring Callaway on DK in week one. The Callaway train starts next week, save your ticket.
Marvin Jones: Why would I want to ride a value chalk play in a game with two bad teams? Well, bad defenses being the primary reason certainly but Jones to me is one veteran that won’t fall into the remember me category this week. He’ll be out performed by a cheaper and younger set of stud rookie WR’s in much better game in the form of Rondale Moore (AZ) and Elijah Moore (NYJ) who are in two much better tempo games than Jones and Callaway for that matter.
Ambush Play #3: The chalk value is where you should pivot first this week because there is so much of it out there.
GRAB THE POPCORN
This is one of those weeks where I can understand why some want to write up every single player on the slate. It becomes like a kid in a candy store for the first time trying to pick up everything he or she can because this is amazing, OMG look at all these cool players! Most of them will just finish with blah games though at the end of the day and we have to really make a stand on who the star receiver is that is going to have a performance which even Terrell Owens would admit is popcorn worthy.
But first, let’s cover some areas where it WONT be coming from.
It will not be not the Steelers and Bills. The Steelers had all off-season to think about not just their playoff loss to the Browns but really the loss to the Bills in the regular season which helped push them into having to even play the game in the first place. If Pittsburgh cannot figure out the Bills pass rush here then they never will. I expect this game to be close but not the shootout that some others are projecting.
It will not be the Eagles and Falcons. The Eagles have a major advantage in this game on their offensive line and should control the tempo and line of scrimmage of this game on both sides but I don’t trust Jalen Hurts consistently passing the ball so I won’t bite on their passing game. Meanwhile Atlanta’s going to be popular as chalk but rookie TE’s continue to be a fade so I am out on Kyle Pitts in an offense which still won’t be giving Matt Ryan much time to pass or any holes for the running game to excel. I am out on this game.
And while I love D.K. Metcalf to finish as WR1 this season and like him this week there just isn’t enough in a flow scenario for this game to make him wind up with a massive stat line at the end of the day. Same is true for Davante Adams in a tough match-up against a money hungry Marshon Lattimore and I mentioned I want Kelce over Tyreek in the Chiefs passing game. So that all leads us too ….
The DeAndre Hopkins show. The Arizona Cardinals and Tennessee Titans game is #2 on my list of shootout games this week and the Cardinals passing game should thrive. The Titans issue on defense a season ago was getting pressure on the QB, so facing Kyler Murray in week one doesn’t bode well for helping to get to the QB enough to disrupt the passing game. You’ll need someone in the Arizona passing game this week and if you aren’t playing Rondale Moore then I expect DeAndre Hopkins to be the #1 player you lock into your WR lineup with 2 value options alongside him. Grab the popcorn here, because Hopkins, Moore, AJ Brown and Julio Jones are going to put on a receiving show.
Ambush Play #4: Passing volume dominates the Cardinals-Titans game.
AMBUSH THEME OF THE WEEK
Most weeks we try to find a general theme to the week, it’s a way of helping to filter down the overall slate or to help give an edge. It’s weird to some, but trends are a big deal to me and a lot of times we see a trend start in the Thursday night game and then magically continue through Sunday and Monday night. Road teams playing well, games going under, running backs dominating, etc., etc., etc. Every article you read is a mix of giving out statistical information and gut plays. But at the end of the day, every prognostication is exactly that, a prognostication as to what is going to happen rather than what should happen. A strong theme I see happening this week is “remember me”.
Every fantasy football season comes with over-hyped players for months and seemingly anyone with a Twitter handle or podcast has a player who is going to break out and become the new star. But what if for a moment we just stopped and remembered that players who we had wrote off for no good are actually — still pretty damn good at the football. Antonio Brown ring a bell? How about Dak Prescott? They looked mighty good on Thursday night and so as you go around the league in week one there are a few names who stood out to me that could pop their heads and say – hey you, remember me? Guys like DeVante Parker, Adam Theielen, Zach Ertz, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Jimmy Garrappolo come to mind. Alright, so Jimmy G really isn’t that good — but these are all players who seem to be getting thrown to the side for newer shinier objects on their own squads and maybe — just maybe — for a minute they’ll say hold on big fella I can still compete here.
Ambush Play #5: Tournaments will be won by the formerly good players who have been forgotten about.
Ambush Fades – Games I have NO desire for
- Jacksonville at Houston
- Philadelphia at Atlanta
- Pittsburgh at Buffalo
- San Francisco at Detroit – The 49ers will thump the Lions
- Denver at NY Giants
- Miami at New England
Kyler Murray
If Kyler continues to run near the goal line he’ll be virtually a lock for the write up most weeks. I don’t love the player long term still but fantasy production is harder to match than a mobile QB who is the best cheat code inside the 10 at scoring since Mike Vick, while playing on a team with a leaky defense but plenty of dynamic weapons at WR.
Baker Mayfield
A lot of what I like in Baker is that he has everything he needs around him. Great offensive line, deep and talented running backs, solid depth at TE and now three dynamic and different WR to occupy defenses. With Mayfield going into his second year in this offense he should take a GIANT step forward and push for MVP consideration. Gimme the QB vs the Chiefs any day of the week simply because of the back and forth upside.
Sam Darnold
Revenge narrative takes the stage with Darnold who jumps into an offense that should be favorable to Quarterback play even though Teddy Bridgewater didn’t shine in it last year. But then hey, it kind of does matter having that CMC guy back there too doesn’t it? The Darnold to Robby Anderson connection will get you by, although I wouldn’t expect Darnold to throw up 400 yards and 4 scores here but we don’t need that for what his pricing is.
Dalvin Cook
Dalvin gets the nod over CMC, Henry, Ak41 among the top end premium running backs. I don’t dislike CMC as I mentioned above and project a strong game for him but Dalvin is the solid workhorse and overall has a better match-up in my mind here. Cook’s price on FanDuel at $9,400 makes him extremely attractive there and almost a core lock play considering CMC is devalued by the half point PPR scoring system.
Antonio Gibson
A solid case of pricing being way off on DraftKings based upon the player profile. Gibson should catch a ton of balls for Washington which is one additional reason why I project McLaurin to not be as high as others this year. They have the same offense that the Panthers previously ran in CMC’s big seasons and he obviously fits as close to that role as they are going to find. Plus the Chargers can get after Fitzpatrick here forcing him to check it down more. Gibson at $5,900 will hit 2x before mid way through the 2nd quarter.
Nick Chubb
Consider Hunt a fourth weapon at times in the passing game, but Nick Chubb is to me the best Running Back that nobody talks about enough. We saw the difference an O-Line CAN make for running backs when Ezekiel Elliott had his dominant o-line and Chubb once again is running behind the best rushing o-line in football. He has to have a score or two in a big game here for this game to shootout.
Also consider as value plays
Raheem Mostert – The 49ers should run right over, through and around the Detroit Lions. San Francisco is a dangerous team.
Tevin Coleman – Remember me? Yeah, the Panthers D can still be run on even though the DL is improving some their linebackers SUCK. The Jets RBBC is what kills this scenario, but we’re going to see one of the Jets RB do very well for very cheap.
Ty Montgomery – Ty is basically the Saints slot WR this week and will play a ton on third down. He’s been converted to WR since last season so I am not sure why it’s taking so long to change his position on the DFS sites but maybe by week 12 they will update it. He’s going to play a good amount, see plenty of third down targets and essentially is a longshot FLEX value play on DraftKings only.
This is where the sites differ the most as usual. I generally will want that one stud WR to pair with two lower mid-range options on DraftKings when possible because the full point per reception value is too easy for the cheap guys to hit value. Stay balanced on FanDuel and focus on players with the most TD upside.
DeAndre Hopkins
DeAndre HopkinsNuk is my stud of the week at WR. The Titans brought in Janoris Jenkins to help out with their secondary but should still be forced to cover for too long in the secondary and Hopkins has averaged over 100 yards in his career in road Tennessee games from his old Houston days. Kyler would be stupid to not lean on him here.
Robby Anderson
We cannot underestimate the chemistry aspect of Darnold and Robby Anderson being re-united in Carolina going against their former team. It just seems like too easy of a DFS assumption to ignore Anderson hauling in 7 catches for 119 yards and a touchdown — which by the way should match or beat out more popular plays like Tee Higgins ($4700) Calvin Ridley ($7900) and Stefon Diggs ($7600) this week. Robby A is the Y to the Nuk X in our WR 1-2 punch.
MID RANGE WR3 TOUCHDOWN CALLS
I wanted to change up my WR breakdown this year. I’ll give out my favorite 2 X/Y players as mentioned above and then in this second section we look for the best of the rest who we’ll make a claim to get into the box. These are always going to be players under $7500 on FD and $6500 on DK because anyone above those who we’re touting should be a top 2 play if worth it.
DeVante Parker – Parker has to be one of the primary go to spots for Tua this week and the Patriots secondary comes in really banged up. Miami has a bit of a statement game early in the season in Foxborough and Parker is the #1 Remember Me play this week.
Mike Williams – Death. Taxes. Me touting Mike Williams. Once again, he is the FD receiver here and Keenan is the DK receiver.
Tee Higgins – Yeah I love Robby Anderson more than Higgins and I expect JMarr Chase to get things going, but Higgins at $4,700 is definitely a miss-priced play
VALUE WR
Value plays are Sub $5,500 on FanDuel and Sub $4,500 on DraftKings
Deonte Harris – The bomb to Harris is going to be called upon with Winston at Quarterback now for the Saints.
Rondale Moore – Moore is going to benefit playing with Kyler for the simple fact that Moore loves getting the ball on quick passes at the line of the scrimmage. The combination of Hopkins and Moore is going to make the Arizona passing game EXTREMELY friendly on DraftKings because of the volume those two will get.
Elijah Moore – Whenever SEC defenses decided to play zone coverage on Moore at Ole Miss he would just carve them up in the middle of the field. Carolina is still going to run a good deal of zone despite transitioning to more balanced base defense and in those scenarios I can see Moore out shining Corey Davis.
Donovan Peoples Jones – Know his name, he is the secret weapon to make this offense jump to the next level and they’re not going to be just a rushing attack anymore
Travis Kelce
With so many value choices everywhere else it’s hard to pass on Kelce in a game where I project the Chiefs to still be forced into scoring into late in the game. He’ll finish t he day with 10 catches for over 100 yards and blow out every other TE this week, so given the cheap pricing guys that will see plenty of work I will take that.
Zach Ertz
Many thought the Eagles were going to trade away Ertz in the off-season but he is back with the team and unlike the 2020 campaign he is healthy and should be trusted again. We’re getting a $3,800 quality Tight End against a bad defense at 2% ownership. If you aren’t paying for Kelce, you should be going for non Kyle Pitts value.
Dan Arnold
My Panthers stack this week would consist of Darnold-Anderson and … Dan Arnold?!?! Yeah, for me it’s CMC naked or the Darnold-Anderson-Arnold combination. Dan Arnold scores for the Panthers this week.
I cannot recall a harder week one for defenses ever in DFS. Usually we have a really bad team that is on the road and is going to get thumped but it’s not as clear this week as it should be.
49ers
They got a bunch of pieces back to a defense which was among the elite two years ago and face the slow moving Lions offense that lacks depth everywhere. I like the Lions coaching staff to get things turned around eventually but not this week and the San Francisco DL should get sacks on Goff.
Dolphins
Rookie Quarterbacks will make mistakes, there’s just no way around it and usually those mistakes turn into touchdowns for the opposing defense. Miami returns a solid unit with a great secondary here and could easily luck their way into a D/ST touchdown.
Dolphins
Rookie Quarterbacks will make mistakes, there’s just no way around it and usually those mistakes turn into touchdowns for the opposing defense. Miami returns a solid unit with a great secondary here and could easily luck their way into a D/ST touchdown.
It’s back by popular demand! The Q&A section, where I ask questions to myself and answer them for you thinking that you might actually be wondering the same thing. In all seriousness though if you have a weekly question get it to me before Friday night and I will include it in here. This is the final thoughts presented in Q&A style — like a press conference.
Q: Who is getting overlooked this week and why is it … Russell Wilson?
In his first eight games last year it was Let Russ Cook and then all of the sudden the wheels fell off and he started throwing a ton of interceptions. The off season was a nice reset for Wilson and quietly the addition of Gerlad Everett at TE should give them a little more consistency in the passing game options beyond Metcalf and Lockett. Wilson had three slate breaking performances out of the gate in 2020 and opens vs a Colts defense rolling out Xavier Rhodes at one CB position. Russ could easily cook in this game.
Q: What game looks good that you decided to pass on??
The Chargers-Washington game to me has the best entertainment value of the 1PM slate. My boy Justin Herbert along with all his weapons in a new offensive scheme against a Washington defense which is STOUT up front and still questionable behind that. This is going to be my favorite 1PM only game this week to stack.
Q: Explain Deonte Harris to me like I am five.
Play action, double-move, Harris over the top, touchdown. Left to right across your TV screen with Joe Buck saying “Aaaand hereeee’s aaa paaasss”. Followed up by Troy Aikman saying “Yeah, Harris just did a double move on [INSERT DB] and Winston dropped it in. You know, that’s … wait, where am I? What just happened???”
What more do I need to explain?
Q: 15 years with Drew Brees and now … Winston? How are you coping?
I am planning on watching the game sober.
So, not well.
Q: Should I be stacking in NFL DFS?
You should be correlating. Correlate your QB with a pass catcher AND someone else in the same game. I don’t care if it’s a WR, TE, RB or even a third player on his team, but yes you should be investing more than one egg from a game into your basket known as a lineup in many cases. But you do not have to do it all the time and that generally depends upon the WR themselves. I build lineups starting with DEFENSE first then usually move to the RB to lock that core in, but not before identifying how much I have to spend at WR that week. This is a slate that WR are going to determine, don’t mess up there.
Q: FAVORITE BETS?
San Francisco 49ers -7.5
Browns/Chiefs OVER 53
Saints ML
Chargers/Washington OVER 44.5
Carolina Panthers – Survivor Pick
Q: Best game to fade?
Eagles and Falcons
Q: Game nobody is touching that could go off?
Had Hurricane IDA never happened and the Packers-Saints was in the Superdome it would have been that game. The muggy heat of Jacksonville will slow this game down a little bit. The Saints win.
Q: How many lineups should I have?
However many you want honestly, because you should remember to have some fun. Just make sure you put them in good contests that you can actually win 10x in without having a miracle lineup build. I personally have found there are fewer players on FanDuel who can exceed expectations because of the lack of bonus scoring and only half point per reception. It’s for that reason I always consider Fanduel my primary lineup site and the better football scoring system.
DraftKings has better contests usually and offers the better site to get a little contrarian with and thus it’s the multi-entry site and where I’ll do 3-5 lineups each week.
Q: How to balance 3 “extra” tournament lineups after your primary lineup then? Give us some core builds.
Lineup 1 would be a game stack core with the Browns/Chiefs as my CORE
- Baker, Hunt, DPJ, Kelce
Lineup 2 will be locking in on the RB trio of the week
- Cook – CMC – Gibson
Lineup 3 is balanced based on positional breakdown with my “Getting Overlooked”
- Wilson-Metcalf combination with Hopkins – Robby Anderson – Kelce and value at RB
CONTEST SELECTION REMINDERS
Reminder on a couple things you should be looking for each week are as follows
- Tournaments with less than 1k users in them
- Tournaments with less than 300 users in them
- Tournaments that pay 10x to first not 50x to first
- Higher paylines (% of people who get paid)
- How much does 10th place get? 20th place?
Focus on not first place but below that. Make sure you are playing a tournament that is one you can win in and will not have a ton of tilt by entering a lineup and having to worry about every single person who scores on the slate. You’ll find that in the long run any tournament that only pays 10x to first is one you will profit in.
Good luck this week to everyone.
Boom! Lets roll.