We are breaking down the 12 NOON Main DFS slate as always. Games are focused on the DraftKings MAIN slate because FanDuel has FAR too many games on their site to break it all down here. To be specific here’s what we are Tailgating with today
- Boise State vs Utah State: Yes, this is a NOON Eastern game which means its a 10am local start time. Those typically result in sluggish and lower scoring games. Which is notable since the total here is 69!
- LSU vs Mississippi State
- Missouri vs Boston College
- Notre Dame vs Wisconsin
- SMU vs TCU
- Texas Tech vs Texas
- Georgia vs Vanderbilt
Games starting in the 3:30 PM Window
- Clemson vs NC State
- Iowa State vs Baylor
- Rutgers vs Michigan
- Texas A&M vs Arkansas
- Louisville vs Florida State
I don’t see any major weather issues anywhere.
LSU vs Mississippi State
Neither team is going to try and generate much through their running game and LSU is a little thin in the backfield as it is, so this really sets up a nice game flow where the ball is being thrown a ton, the clock is moving slowly and we’re accumulating a ton of reception points. LSU is the clear path on who to play it’s Johnson and Boutte but Miss St has the better options at value WR.
- LSU – Max Johnson, Kayshon Boutte
- Miss St – Will Rogers, Jaden Walley, Jamire Calvin, Joq Marks
SMU vs TCU
The Horned Frogs (which I just love saying) and the Mustangs. A great Texas match-up here and while TCU has a good defense which can slow down the SMU passing attack I don’t see a scenario where they are able to completely keep SMU from accumulating yards throughout the game given how SMU likes to play. This game is more of one to consider the Quarterbacks naked with some rushing ability
- SMU – Tanner Mordecai, Reggie Roberson, Grant Calcaterra
- TCU – Max Duggan, Quentin Johnston, Taye Barber
Texas A&M vs Arkansas
This is my favorite under the radar spot. We have a warm weather environment and two teams with underpriced players that should perform
- TAM: Isaiah Spiller
- Arkansas: Treylon Burks
Quarterback is the position to spend up on this week.
Malik Cunningham (Louisville, $8800)
Cunningham is emerging as one of the most consistent options we’ll have given how often he is scoring on the ground and those 6 point rushing TD bonuses are nice. The stats may say that FSU isn’t gashed on the ground and that is because they are gashed via the air, which only boosts the upside for Cunningham as his top WR Marshon Ford is only $5,500 so you can get a really god correlation combo here or just take the 30 point game from Cunningham as your QB1 and move on.
Max Johnson (LSU, $8300)
LSU throws the ball a ton and is a little depleted at running back. In a very pass friendly game against Mississippi St (understatement of the year) he could easily throw the ball 40 times, while completing 60% of his passes for sure. It’s a scenario that should lead to him pushing close to 300 yards through the air and all the LSU touchdowns are going to come via the air today. Johnson has 300 & 3 TD projection here making him a reliable play and a pivot off Cunningham in the same price tier.
Max Duggan (TCU, $8700) and Tanner Mordecai (SMU, $9000)
Duggan is the higher upside play given that he’ll run the ball a good amount and has a really good shot as anyone to match Cunningham as the top overall #1 play. Mordecai is going to be your low owned, high priced QB in a good game script against a decent defense who to me is a game-stack only play but one who offers plenty of consideration.
Best value QB: Dennis Grosel (BC – $5900)
This is a very below average slate at Running Back. Like, really bad. Everyone is going to use Breece Hall who to me has a 18 point ceiling today. Fade.
Isaiah Spiller (Texas A&M, $5900)
It’s going to be very warm in Arkansas and so this sets up as a third sneaky shootout despite not being a game many will look at. Spiller is a player who produces at 7k+ ability and since there is more certainty at Quarterback and Wide Receiver I am searching for the best talent that is underpriced at RB today. Spiller is that guy.
Joshua Corbin (FSU, $5600)
Best chance for FSU to stay in this game is to lean on the home rushing game. Louisville has given up 5 yards per carry so far this season and Corbin is getting 12+ rushing attempts. If we can get one touchdown out of him as a home RB we’re golden.
Bijan Robinson (Texas, $7200)
Sometimes good talent can trump a matchup and Robinson is the only high player on this slate who I worry that could bust off for a massive rushing game. He’s coming off a 3 TD performance vs lowly Rice and should have a slightly harder time today vs Texas Tech, but he’s still a very talented back who is worthy of FLEX consideration.
The Georgia Backfield
Have fun with that, I am done trying to guess Georgia. They should (and will) run all over Vandy though.
Kayshon Boutte (LSU, $7,700)
Simple math here, LSU throws the ball 40+ times, Boutte will see 25%+ of the targets, catch 80% of them and should go over 100 yards receiving with a touchdown or three. Boutte has 6 TD on the season already, showing his chemistry with Max Johnson is strong and Miss St has given up 83% of their touchdowns through the air this year after giving up over 65% a season ago. He will need to beat out a chalky Khalil Shakir who is $300 cheaper and I don’t hate here, but Boutte is the pick to be WR1 this week.
Treylon Burks (Arkansas, $6000)
As I mentioned with Spiller for A&M this is a game that I think jumps up and has some good DFS options in it. Burks is your solo run it back play from Arkansas.
Marshon Ford (Louisville, $5500)
If Malik Cunningham doesn’t rush for 2+ touchdowns then he’s likely throwing for 3+ and that would open up the door for Ford who when they have needed him has led this team in targets in 2 of their 3 games and Florida State’s pass defense certainly doesn’t have Deion Sanders walking through the door anytime soon.
Jaden Walley (Miss St, $4800), Jamire Calvin ($3300)
Figuring out the Mississippi State receivers today will win all the money. With Derek Stingley likely working on Makai Polk or Malik Health we can take chances with Walley or Jamire Calvin ($3300). Walley appears to be the much more reliable option with 8 targets each of the last two games and has 3 touchdowns on the season. Yes, the touchdown variance Gods are going to point out that Jamire Calvin for $3300 probably gets one instead, but either way they are both cheap options in the top gamestack game.
Value Punts
Kearis Jackson (Georgia) – Gut feeling he is the Georgia player featured today to get him “right” as they say after a few games off knee surgery.
Taye Barber (TCU), CT Thomas (Boise St)
Chalk Report
With limited RB options both Breece Ball and Bijan Robinson will be popular plays and you do not need both of them and in many cases I don’t see a scenario where you need either.
WR Reggie Roberson for $4500 on DraftKings projects as the clear high value chalk play today.
Fade(s) of the Day
Breece Hall
Boise/Utah State
Where to allocate Salary?
Quarterback
2% owned Tailgate Slate Buster Play of the Day
Quentin Johnston – TCU
The Tailgate Core (Core for DraftKings Lineups)
Cunningham, Spiller, Boutte, Walley
Favorite Bet(s)
LSU/Miss St OVER 56
Boise/Utah State UNDER 69
Texas A&M/Arkansas OVER 47