NFL · September 30, 2021

NFL DFS: Thursday Night Football Showdown – Week 4 – Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cincinnati Bengals

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This week’s Thursday Night Football showdowns features the last two number one overall draft picks – Joe Burrow from last season and Trevor Lawrence a few months back. Much like it was for Burrow before a season-ending injury, it’s been a trying start for Lawrence who comes in with a league-high seven interceptions through his first three weeks as he tries to lead an 0-3 Jags team. Burrow has a plethora of weapons at his disposal as he continues to look for some protection in front if him on the offensive line. The former LSU signal-caller, Heisman Trophy winner, and National Champion has been sacked nine times in his first three games but wasn’t sacked once last week. Lawrence as I said is going through some growing pains. The game looks a little quick to him right now and coming in for a road game on a short week is no easy task. Regardless there’s going to be plenty of fantasy goodness here as Week 4 kicks off!

NOTE: All pricing references pertain to DraftKings

Showdown Strategy

When Showdown slates first became available I was not a big fan simply because I don’t often like change. When these slates were designed we hadn’t ever seen anything like them in the DFS world. Come to realize a few years later I really enjoy them. On a normal slate with multiple games, I would typically describe myself as a cash game player primarily. That’s where my focus typically lies; cash games/single entry tournaments and from there I’ll build lineups for multi-entry GPP contests. For me, the cash game/single entry strategy kind of goes out the window as I’ll hardly if ever play double-ups and single-entry contests in showdown. Instead, I’ll take a core of players, more than often three to four players in the game that I want in virtually every lineup, typically 20 or so, that I build. The core will usually include both quarterbacks and one to two skill players that I have to have. Like much of fantasy football volume is king but it comes with a price. The wrinkle is the captain’s spot in showdown lineups. The captain’s spot generates 1.5 times the amount of fantasy points scored however a player’s salary goes up in the captain’s spot obviously. Locking in a core and deciding on a captain is how I’ll start building lineups. From there I’ll fill in the rest of the spots with correlation and value plays. Don’t be afraid to get a little weird with these lineups because virtually anything goes!

Core Plays

Bengals: QB Joe Burrow, WR Ja’Marr Chase

Jaguars: QB Trevor Lawrence, WR D.J. Chark

Cardinals focused on starting fast against Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars

Burrow only attempted 18 passes last week in a game that the Bengals had in hand against the Steelers. It was the fewest pass attempts for Burrow in his young career and only the second time he attempted fewer than 30. The Jags defense has been atrocious thus far and that doesn’t look to be changing anytime soon. Burrow’s top target has been his college teammate Ja’Marr Chase who’s proving to be a budding star in the league. Chase has been targeted five, four, and seven times in three games accumulating four touchdowns (at least one in each game) through his first three games. While Tee Higgins (questionable) and Tyler Boyd are both going to be factors, Chase is on another level from what I’ve seen.

Lawrence has had to throw the football regularly and that doesn’t seem like it will change with this Jags defense. The turnovers need to slow down but that will come with time. One of the receivers that Lawrence should be looking to more is D.J. Chark who had a touchdown last Sunday, his second touchdown in three games. Chark has been targeted 12, four, and six times in his three games but finds himself priced down at just $7,200 – crazy value for the best receiver on the team, and yes he has the most talent at the wide receiver position on the Jags. Marvin Jones is not that guy.

*NOTE: All plays above are obviously “Captain” viable

Captain Plays

*Captain plays will always be options other than those mentioned in the “core plays” section.

RB Joe Mixon (CIN)

Cincinnati Bengals on Twitter: "Joe Mixon... DAWG… "

Mixon has been the bell cow of the league thus far with at least 19 touches in every game with 71 or more yards. The Jaguars have allowed over 100 rushing yards per game on average to this point but have yet to even see a running back the caliber of Mixon. With the Bengals sitting as a solid home favorite we have to believe that if the game script goes to plan the former Oklahoma star will be leaned on heavily.

RB James Robinson (JAX)

After the first game of the season, the eight touches total for Robinson were very concerning from a fantasy perspective. In Week 2 Robinson had 14 touches and last week he had 21 touches with sex receptions mixed in. Hopefully, the Carlos Hyde experience is done and Urban Meyer gives Robinson the volume he saw last year and was so successful with.

Flex Plays

WR Marvin Jones (JAX)

While Chark is the best receiver on Jacksonville, Jones has been the busiest target for Trevor Lawrence with five, six, and six receptions on eight, 11, and nine targets with two touchdowns. At $8,600 if Jones is going to get the volume he has with the Jaguars likely trailing, he’ll more than likely pay off that price tag.

WR Tyler Boyd (CIN)

Working without Tee Higgins on the field last week Boyd saw six targets resulting in four receptions one of which was for a touchdown. In Week 2 Boyd had seven receptions for 73 yards on nine targets. Priced at just $7,400 in an offense that can support three receivers Boyd is an underpriced option.

Also consider:

WR Laviska Sheanault (JAX)

K’s Evan McPherson (CIN), Josh Lambo (JAX)

GOOD LUCK!!

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