This season is taking forever if you ask me and I don’t know if that is due to it being an 18 game season or the fact that I have now watched five straight weeks of Jameis Winston without drinking heavily but I am going to assume its the latter.  Speaking of Mr. Winston, we are finally at the BYE week portion of our schedule and the Saints, Falcons, 49ers and Jets are all off this week.  Which is not very informational considering the Jets and Falcons have been off most of the season.

So we get two less games and then a third potential game is taken away as the Jaguars and Dolphins are shipped over to London to battle things out at 9:30 on Sunday Morning — whoop de fucking do.

Injury News

The first item of note before we get into the major slew of injuries this weekend is that the Cardinals will be without Kliff Kingsbury who caught COVID and I can only assume he was hosting parties at that house of his out there in Arizona.  I see this as a really big deal, we’ve had a couple situations where teams have been down coaches before and it has seemed to have an impact on everyone outside of the University of Alabama last season.

Now what to do with the injuries which really matter this week — remember, I only pay attention to the ones which impact what I write below or where I could go.

• Melvin Gordon (DEN) is expected to play but to me it was significant that he was limited on Thu & Fri this week.
• D’Andre Swift (DET) listed as questionable but should play
• Tyreek Hill (KC) practiced Friday, he should be good to go
• Mike Williams (LAC) is questionable, I expect him to be in
• Dalvin Cook (MIN) is not only active this week, but has no injury designation
• The entire NY Giants offense is questionable … But Sterling Shepard is back and Daniel Jones will start off a concussion against Aaron Donald.  Seems like a bold move.
• Terry McLaurin (WAS) will play.

Weather Information

Some weather finally as it’s going to be late afternoon winds in Cleveland for the Cardinals/Browns game.

Ownership Reminder

This is one of those weeks where you will hear a ton about lineups building themselves and people trying to get different.  If you want to be smart, cut out the noise, and make sure you dont stray too far from the middle this week.  Find your balance lineup and go there.

Year after year, heck, week after week, people continue to make the same mistakes over and over again.  They wind up moving to late breaking injury pivots onto players who have zero prior experience going into the role that they are about to launch into.  Case in point this week would be how everyone from Friday morning to Saturday morning became experts on the career path of Khalil Herbert.  So many people out here trying to sound smart knowing that he played for Kansas then went to Virginia Tech and put on amazing “tape” while there with his rushing ability.  Shut the hell up people, cmon.  For once I would like the NFL fantasy community to step up and admit that they had never heard of the player before because 90% of them do not play fantasy college football in any way.

Now yes, I have heard of Khaill Herbert because as you know I follow College Football.  But I am not going to suddenly change my mind here because he’s starting for the Bears.  The guy could be free and could get 20 carries and no, I don’t need to add him into my player pool when I have about 7 other RB this week who I love.  It’s more noise and it solves zero problems for us this week.

Now someone like Chuba Hubbard who is getting his third start for the Panthers is a different story.  He’s been launched into this role and the team knows what they have in him right at this second.  It’s a huge difference.  Same with Alexander Mattison last week and to some extent Darel Williams this week for the Chiefs.  But no, you do not need someone just because they are going to be 70% owned in cash and it doesnt matter if they get you a dud score.  It more than matters if they get you a dud score.

I hate the Quarterback pool this week, I will just come right out and say that.  

Sam Darnold (DK: 6100, FD: 7500)

Carolina had a really sluggish game against Philadelphia last week which brought the Darnold hype train down quite a bit.  Now they get the Vikings who are coming off three straight home games which boosted their overall defensive ratings.  This is a classic case of immediate recency bias driving everyone off someone who was playing really well and should do damage through the air this week.  The Vikings secondary should REALLY struggle for two big reasons this week.  First is their obvious lack of talent and inability to deal with guys like DJ Moore and Robby Anderson, but second is that Minnesota should get less pass rush on the road once again.  I also expect the Vikings to move it well enough that Darnold has enough volume here to pay off at his price.

Patrick Mahomes (DK: 8300, FD: 9000)

There are quite a few injuries hitting the Chiefs but then you remember they are facing Washington which continues to give up all the touchdowns through the air (76%) and nearly 300 yards passing per game with no signs of improving things in sight.  Washington is giving up a ton of big plays in their slow secondary and not getting consistent pass rush as only 2 guys are really generating pressure on this 11 man defense.  Mahomes should account for over 300 yards passing and 3+ touchdowns and when you have that kind of safe floor its hard not to just take him in a lineup or two and move on.  He can most certainly be played naked but then there is that Travis Kelce guy who does not suck at the football.

So we have no Henry, no Kamara, no Chubb, no CMC and a ton of value RB that have jumped open on this slate.  Should be fun right?  Stay in the middle here folks, stay in your lane and do not get cute with guys getting their first real cut.

Kareem Hunt (DK: $6200, FD: $7400)

I loved Cleveland before the Nick Chubb news but I didn’t love Chubb because of the obvious 55/45 split with Hunt and now you take one of these two out and the other becomes a must play in any scenario where this happens.  With all the “obvious” type plays this week this one is the one were not gonna get too cute with and just take this cheese.

D’Andre Swift (DK: $6300, FD: $7100)

My upset pick of the week if you want to call it an upset is the Lions rolling over the Bengals.  Detroit has been close and has been well coached so far this season so getting a team that is closer to them in talent like Cincinnati is the ripe spot for them to pull off the upset.  Their only path to do that will be unburrying the dead corpse of TJ Hockenson and feeding D’Andre Swift — who oh by the way is the same price range as Kareem Hunt but will be 30-40% lower owned.

Javonte Williams (DK: $5000, FD: $5600)

The biggest NFL discussion at the start of the week was the Raider situation with head coach Jon Gruden getting kicked out of the league basically.  But come Friday night nobody was even wondering what the Raiders are going to look like after their coach was just fired in a wild turn of events.  Not me.  Im fully focused on Denver throttling the Raiders this week and were going to see the breakthrough performance for Javonte Williams as they let him run wild in a blowout.  The Broncos know that Williams is the better long term back and with a slower type defense in the Raiders this presents the scenario for Williams to bust off not one but two long 40+ yard runs and gets the big fantasy day while Melvin Gordon rests.

Just missed my cut

Jonathan Taylor (DK: $6600, FD: $7500)

Too many other mouths to feed for me to make Taylor in the top 3 this week.  They’ve got an easy passing game here and they’ve got two other RB that can do damage in the red zone.

Antonio Gibson (DK: $6500, FD: $6700)

So Gibson was limited this week as he is dealing with a long term stress injury which just wont go away.  But this is a matter of limiting his pain and his workload during the week.  He had the injury last week and still managed two touchdowns and now gets a terrible defense against running backs.  I get the fear that JD McKissic can take away some of his volume in the passing game but these are some pretty ideal prices and if you are stacking the entire game, you would be stupid to not include Gibson in my mind.

Davante Adams (DK:  $9000, FD: $8500)

In a world where an optimizer would not exist, Davante Adams is only 5% owned.  Unfortunately like our own model here, everyone else plugs in the numbers and oh yeah, hey, this guy is gonna get his usual 30-40% targets against a team he usually does just fine against too.    I will take Adams over Kupp this week and I’ll explain in the Ambush core.

DJ Moore (DK: $7300, FD: $7600)

I like Moore, Anderson AND do not forget about Terrace Marshall Jr here either this week for Carolina.  We have to like all of them but especially Moore up top considering there’s no reason he wont go back to double digit targets with big play ability along the way.  I’m fine with playing two of them here as well and “running it back” with Cook or Theilen from Minnesota.

Brandin Cooks (DK:  $5800, FD: $6500)

This is a week that Cooks should get back to a high reception volume or leave after four plays due to a sore tiny toe or whatever.  75% completion rate against the Colts defense through the air all over the field and after two down weeks based upon tougher opponents we should see Cooks return to that early season 20 point range.

Allen Robinson II (DK:  $5300, FD: $6300)

Just stop sucking please?  Correlate only with Adams in a Bears/Packers game stack which is my low owned stack game of the week.

Keenan Allen (DK:  $6400, FD: $7100)

One injury that popped up is Mike Williams for the Chargers who are dealing with a long flight here but still should be in a position to throw and if Williams does miss then Keenan Allen’s likely 9 target game becomes a 19 target game.  Allen is the perfect type of WR that can give Baltimore fits and even if Williams plays is on my radar as a top play at WR.

Low end Value WR

Jakobi Meyers (FD: $5800) and Nelson Agholor (DK: $4000)

His value on FanDuel at $5800 is very tempting where as Nelson Agholor is the value play on DK.  They are longshots hoping for a touchdown against Dallas.

Zach Pascal (DK: $4400)

Terrace Marshall (DK: $3500)

Van Jefferson (DK: $3400)

There are a ton of mouths to like on the Rams this week which is why I am mostly avoiding them and not paying up for Kupp.  One of those is Van Jefferson who should excel in the deep game against Dallas much like CeeDee Lamb did a week ago on his big touchdown catch.

Travis Kelce (DK: 28, FD: $3)

A man walks into a bar with a bag and orders a drink.  After awhile, the bartender asks him, “What is in the bag?” The man says, “Nothing, don’t worry about it” The night continues and the bartender keeps asking but the man keeps giving him the same answer. Towards the end of the night the bartender offers the man a free beer if the man shows him what is in the bag.  The man agrees.

He reaches into the bag and pulls out a tiny piano and a tiny man that sits down and starts playing the piano. The bartender says, “Wow! That’s amazing! Where did you find they guy?” The man looks up and says, “I have this magic lamp that grants me wishes, but the stupid thing is broken.” The man then hands the bartender the lamp and says, “You can try it if you want.” The bartender happily grabs the lamp and wishes for a million bucks and the room is suddenly filled with a million ducks. “This thing is definitely broken!” says the bartender.

The man replies, “Tell me about it, do you really think I wished for a twelve inch pianist?”

Mark Andrews (DK: $5200)

Alright, so yeah, Kelce is an obvious play this week and you arent worried about his price tag.  But in reality the price drop from him to Andrews on DK is noticeable given that Andrews is once again dominating the target share for Baltimore and faces a defense which is very favorable to TE.

Hunter Henry (DK: $3900)

Tons of good value at TE this week between Henry and Jared Cook but by no way do I trust Cook so its Henry whom I would consider as a FLEX play because were locking in Kelce or Andrews at TE ahead of them.  But 3900 and likely seeing 5 receptions with TD upside has to put Henry on our radar.

End of list.

Cleveland Browns (DK: $2,600, FD: $3,600)

Gimme the defense which had the outlier game a week ago and is going to face the always sack friendly Kyler Murray this week without his head coach.  MASSIVE smash spot for the Browns defense this week.

Baltimore Ravens (DK: $2,300, FD: $3,900)

Nobody will have the Ravens I can assure you of that but were getting the Chargers with Mike Williams banged up and ole Jared Cook is gonna see some more targets which can only mean fumbles or balls bouncing off his hands and into the arms of the Ravens secondary on their way to return it to the house for a 14-3 lead.

Denver Broncos (DK: $3,900, FD: $4,400)

Another team without a head coach and another really good defense at home.  They are the pricey defense this week

Fear not, the title of the article remains, but lets move the AMBUSH section at the end after providing the glimpse of what our player pool is.  These are my favorite plays/themes/thoughts for the upcoming week.  Some folks call this a CORE or a LOCK or whatever you want to give it a special label for, these are … The the plays to Ambush The Competition with this week.

Ambush Play #1 … Middle of the field Backs

There’s a temptation to look at the value RB this week and figure you can lock in guys like Kupp, Kelce, Adams and then there is the “contrarian” temptation to play lower owned guys like Aaron Jones (GB) and Dalvin Cook (MIN) in games where nobody will trust them but their teams.  I don’t mind the Cook/Jones idea but I cannot overlook my top plays coming into this week and that would be the Browns ground game which is now one man in Kareem Hunt, De’Andre Swift in an upset game and of course Javonte Williams break out game this week.  You combine all three of those guys together along with Ambush play #2 and you have found yourself all the value you will need this week.

I also think this is a unique week where playing 3 RB makes sense finally in 2021.  A lot of this is due to the value out there but it’s also due to the middle range on WR just being less than optimal so that mid range of RB is going to equal what we can get with our WR production.  You’ll want to just take Kareem Hunt because the Cardinals are taking their first L this week and he’ll score twice, but you really can get a ton of leverage with other mid range RB that arent popular but in great spots…. Like Mr. Williams.

Ambush Play #2 … QB doesnt matter

At the end of week 5 I was once again reminded of my stance on Quarterback touting in DFS.  It really doesn’t matter for 80% of the plays.  On any given week there will be 1-3 players who wind up with 30+ points and 1-3 players who wind up with dog garbage points but the rest are in that 15 to 25 range and the 10 point difference along with low ownership on most of them makes it to where you really never get burned nor win with your Quarterback selection on most weeks.

So on a week where QB doesnt matter and we dont really have a rushing QB who is dominating our attention we can safely pay down at QB this week and when you go to that low 6k/5k range this week do not overlook Sam I am Darnold instead of the chalky Taylor Henicke.

Ambush Play #3 … Play Travis Kelce, thank you.

Ambush Play #4 … Defense Smash Week + Fades

This is the week when we see defenses piss everyone off who doesnt have them and there will be folks going vocal to ban defenses from DFS.  It will be fun to sit back and laugh at all of them for being whiny little fools but it will be even more fun when we are the ones sitting back and enjoying a defensive touchdown from the Ravens, Browns and Broncos.

Your fades of Week 6 are as follows

• Lamar Jackson
• Darrell Henderson
• Darrel Williams
• Khailil Herbert
• Cooper Kupp
• Terry McLaurin
• JaMarr Chase

Ambush Play #5 … Game Stacks

With everyone out here looking to play the value plays and push optimize it creates a fantastic scenario to go all in on a couple of games on your secondary lineups.  These are the games which I would endorse playing some stacks.

Vikings at Panthers

Not a chance in hell I would recommend Kirk Cousins, so naturally were going Darnold-WR-WR with Theilen or Cook running it back.  This is my #1 game on the slate.

Packers at Bears

Rodgers always brings his A game against Chicago and with him getting an early season game in Soldier Field there’s no cold weather to push them more to a running game.  Bears wont be able to stop Adams and on the flip side dont be shocked when Justin Fields has a game that is comparable to what Jalen Hurts did on Thursday night.  Bad for the eyes, good for the fantasy wallets.

Cowboys at Patriots

This is the last one on this list but the more I look over the slate and my model the more the Patriots passing game is standing out.  I actually see Dallas having a hard time on offense but with strong value from New England WR (Meyers, Agholor, Bourne) and Henry/Jonnu looking good as well there’s some logic to thinking we could see a sneaky late afternoon shootout this week between Dallas and New England.

Who is getting overlooked this week and why is it …. Dalvin Cook?

Cook is fresh we know since he missed the last two weeks and Cook has a lot of the Derrick Henry road usage in him too.  The Panthers rush defense has looked improved and I would not just play Cook naked in this spot without something on Carolina’s side too as he will need to bust off a big run or two — but were going to get a really good running back for sub 5% ownership.

Favorite Bets?

Vikings/Panthers OVER 46

Lions Money Line

Packers/Bears OVER 44

Patriots +3.5

1PM ONLY Build?

Panthers/Vikings with zero exposure in the Chiefs/Washington game

4PM ONLY Build?

Patriots stack with Javante Williams

 

BIG 3 CORE PLAYERS

Javante Williams

DJ Moore

Travis Kelce