Sunday Morning Thoughts …
- Austin Ekeler is going to be a full go today. Slight downgrade on Jared Cook love, but TE is generally a dumpster this week, so I would still look in that range price wise if not chasing Hockenson who now is my #1 TE play. The Ekeler reason is that he takes red zone advantage away and I think Keenan Allen scores 1 for sure. Cook still ok, just not smash spot.
- Other TE to consider: Noah Fant, Tyler Higbee, Juwan Johnson
- Added Broncos to the player pool on D/ST
- Thats all for the updates. Good luck!
The first thing which stood out to me in Week 8 is that we are devoid of higher end options at Quarterback. Mahomes, Rodgers, Murray, Jackson, Prescott and heck even Derek Carr can be thrown in there as high volume Quarterbacks that are not available to us on this large buffet of choices. That does not mean that there are not good options at Quarterback, it just means the path to not having a high priced Quarterback becomes much more likely. It’s math people, keep up.
The other thing which stood out to me heavily in Week 8 is the emotion side of the game. A lot will refer to this as game theory or narratives in contests, but we saw it just as recently as the past week & including the Thursday night game. I said Arizona and Green Bay had the look ahead to Thursday and they were flat in their games last Sunday before a competitive game last night.
We saw the Titans get way up for two big games in a row and essentially re-establish themselves as a top team in the AFC even after losing to the Jets earlier this season.
We saw the Bucs just whip around the Bears as they should. We saw the Jets continue to suck. We saw Washington make their claim as the new Falcons in the league and we saw the Falcons … wait, the Falcons didn’t choke? None the less, I think its that time of year where game script and game theory comes into play more. So lets get some of the game theory calls out of the way first.
The Rams face the Houston Texans. This is going to conclude the Clemson part of their schedule as they have now gotten to face the Bears, Giants, Seahawks, Lions and Texans. Coming up on the Rams schedule they will have to face the Titans, Packers, Cardinals, Vikings and Ravens down the stretch. The Rams are done with the facing of East Spartansburg Community College type teams after this week and so why the hell should they do anything other than go in and get the hell out of Houston before Brandin Cooks blows up the building like Milton in Office Space because the Saints said nah, we don’t need him back when they took Mark Ingram instead.
You do not overlook teams in divisional games. So that means these games should stay close …
- Dolphins/Bills
- Colts/Titans
- Falcons/Panthers
- Bucs/Saints
- Steelers/Browns
Two of those games aren’t the best in the world (Dolphins/Bills & Steelers/Browns) but for different reasons. The Dolphins are just not fully there right now and I basically feel like it’s Tua and well, Tua who actually gives a shit. And the Steelers/Browns are coming in well rested and likely want to beat the crap out of each other.
Now… On to the week 8 breakdown … which begins with …
Injury News
QB
- Nothing to monitor
RB
- CLE – Nick Chubb is back for the Browns, but I assume they still split with D’Ernest Johnson filling Hunt’s role in terms of touches.
- LAC – Austin Ekeler is GTD and coming off a BYE. I assume he sits or is limited given that he was a late week injury.
WR
- CLE – WR Jarvis Landry is back. Odell Beckham is likely to play.
- TB – Antonio Brown is OUT for the Bucs, Tyler Johnson should see a boost because of this. Not Godwin/Evans.
- TEN – Julio Jones is OUT, which should only further Derrick Henry’s usage this week.
- DEN – Jerry Jeudy is most likely back although he sat out Friday’s practice, so I would suspect he is still somewhat limited.
- PHI – WR J.J. Arcega-Whiteside is questionable. Please adjust your heart monitors accordingly
TE
- Nothing to monitor
OTHER (Defense/Linemen)
- Atlanta vs Carolina
- Falcons placed LB Dante Fowler on IR, he missed the game last week and their already piss poor pass rush should be even worse.
- Panthers relatively new CB CJ Henderson is questionable. A good boost for Ridley if he is out. Could be lots of zone coverage for Carolina this week.
- WR Terrace Marshall Jr is out with a concussion
- San Francisco vs Chicago
- DT Akiem Hicks is questionable for the Bears. Downgrade their rush defense if he is out and Khalil Mack is ruled OUT already.
- Pittsburgh vs Cleveland
- TE Eric Ebron is OUT for Pittsburgh
- LB Melvin Ingram is doubtful
- Cleveland has a bunch of guys who are questionable but likely playing … Clowney, Malik Jackson.
- Washington vs Denver
- Von Miller is questionable.
- Tampa Bay vs New Orleans
- TB: JPP, Lavonte David, Richard Sherman all likely to play
- NO: DT David Onyemata is back from a 6 game suspension
Weather Information
- Possible Rain in Dolphins @ Bills and sub 50 degree weather. Nothing serious.
- No word on roof in Indianapolis or Atlanta. Doesn’t matter too much.
Possible Trap/Look ahead spots
- Bengals have a big home divisional game next week.
- The Texans play the Dolphins next week. There’s no look ahead here, but that just excites the piss out of me because holy fuck Tua is going to drop 50 on them.
Justin Herbert
At the end of this article in the Q&A I always have a staged question which says ‘Who is getting overlooked this week and why is it _____’ and the original name who was always in that blank spot from a couple seasons ago was Josh Allen. Well Mr. Allen has obviously graduated into the always popular category and now we are getting a new second year QB who should be featured in that spot with Mr. Herbert. The Chargers will be off their BYE week and welcoming in the team who thumped them at home a year ago in a shocking way. But New England is quietly a below average pass defense giving up 75% of touchdown production through the air and a fairly low 21% pressure rate on Quarterbacks. With Austin Ekeler showing up as a late injury flag it only adds to the chances we see Herbert throw 3 touchdowns.
The Pats started the season statistically well against the pass however they faced Miami, NY Jets, New Orleans and then Brady in an emotional game. Since then they have shipped off their best CB to Carolina and gave up 293 yards to Davis Mills, 445 to Dak Prescott and somehow gave up 237 yards to Walter White and the Jets last week. This secondary is not their strength and they should have no success stopping the Chargers passing attack.
Jameis Winston
A little revenge narrative sure, but lets look at the reality of what the match-up are and expectations should be for Winston. Tampa Bay is going to continue to be a funnel defense and through that process alone Winston will accrue a higher than normal volume of passing attempts and yardage.
This is the second game back for Tre’Quan Smith who looked rusty on Monday night in many ways and even had Winston screaming at him for getting lined up poorly. But make no mistake Tre’Quan has been a big loss for the passing game because they had NOBODY who could get open on intermediate routes over the middle of the field which voided any attempts down the sidelines for Winston. That changed Monday night in a big day and should continue with a better performance by Smith (who had 2 TD vs Tampa a season ago) this week and a solid passing performance from Winston against his former team.
Teddy Bridgewater
Denver has had 10+ days to heal up and will be welcoming in a really bad Washington defense this week while possibly getting WR Jerry Jeudy back into the fold. I expect Denver to just thump Washington completely this weekend and there should be touchdowns all around for this offense, which will result in Teddy throwing minimum 2 TD and a high chance he could just ball out entirely with a 3+ TD game here.
He’s another value QB that we have to like, but he has more risk than someone like Winston because of the fact that Denver will probably lean on their ground game equally here — especially in the red zone. The way to beat Washington for big plays over the top doesn’t exactly fit Teddy’s game either, so while he’s an okay play, he is a clear notch below the other options.
Joe Mixon
The Bengals should use this game to get in and get out. It’s their third straight game on the road and the rate which the Jets can’t keep opposing running backs out of the end zone will offer plenty of chances for Mixon to produce big results.
Derrick Henry
Henry on the road and without Julio he should see more receptions as well. Yes you have to pay for Henry but QB, WR, TE are all value spots this week so we can lock in his 25 point floor.
James Robinson
Robinson profiles very well against Seattle who is very close to throwing in the towel. But of all the games this weekend this one stumps me more than anything else so Robinson slides into the three hole at RB this week for that reason. But he is a great guy to have in your lineup in the FLEX because you have a simple pivot spot if you need to play catch-up late.
Darrell Henderson
With the Texans giving up 4.7 YPC on the ground I don’t see any reason to not like Henderson as he should have good volume and get near 100 yards rushing with high chance he scores. Lets hope for the Henderson volume game and the Rams just get in and get out.
Who are the other RB we can consider?
Leonard Fournette – This is not a desperation game for Tampa by any stretch but they know their main path to beating the Saints defense and it’s doing exactly what nobody expects them to do. Run the ball and stay disciplined with it. Tampa cannot beat New Orleans having Brady drop back 40 times.
Zack Moss
DJ Moore
It is time for the Carolina Panthers to get back to basics which means you should get the ball to your best players and with Christian McCaffrey out still that means get the damn ball to D.J. Moore on a fast surface and let him run wild. I really expect the Panthers to find as many ways to get the ball into Moore’s hands this weekend and that should be jet sweeps, crossing routes, deep vertical routes, bubble screens, amazon prime deliveries, whatever it takes. Get the damn ball into the hands of players who can make things happen and with the Falcons you have a defense that likes to still play quick to the ball but overall is not covering anything underneath and Darnold should have an easy day getting it to Moore a ton for a lot of receptions. This smells like a 13 catch game where if you do not have him on DraftKings you will be kicking yourself.
Calvin Ridley
Why is Ridley still cheap!?!?!? If this game turns into a shootout he should go off for multiple touchdowns. Atlanta is spreading the ball around when they dont see a ton of pressure, but none the less this is still a great discount on Ridley for the opportunity share he could have.
TreQuan Smith
82% of the touchdowns which the Bucs have allowed this year are through the air and the Saints are going to put up points being back at home. We have to trust that the Bucs will utilize the same approach they did in the playoffs last season vs New Orleans which was to immediately shadow Kamara on anything out of the backfield. Smith was very rusty on Monday night but is way too cheap of an option to overlook at $3900 on DK and is more than in play on FanDuel considering he’s going to score a touchdown this week. Sincerely, the guy who told you TreQuan was going to score in Tampa and in the playoffs last year.
Michael Pittman
The Colts offense will get things done through the air, and while the RB should be involved there too I still default to Michael Pittman in this offense right now. His DK price is too damn good at $5300
Courtland Sutton
A common theme for a couple teams this week is that every WR should eat and such is the case with the Broncos who have three WR that are all likely to run over, through and around the Washington secondary provided Teddy has enough time to throw. Enough time being the key element here and Courtland Sutton has straight up been balling lately so I would trust him to remain as the primary weapon of the three options here — however the return of Jeudy likely to the slot is a great discount on DK.
Keenan Allen
Even with Ekeler coming back in the fold I should highlight Keenan Allen as a must with Justin Herbert lineups. The Patriots secondary in my mind is vulnerable to someone like Keenan having a massive catch game.
Value WR
Deonte Harris
Harris on the other hand, is the key to the slate. He was tearing up the Bucs before an injury in the playoffs last year and is the one who gets the benefit on deep passes if and when the Saints dial-up the play action shots. I personally think we’re going to see Tampa baiting Winston to take deep shots and he is going to destroy them underneath, but when they do come up to bite on the underneath routes then BAM Harris gets you the 60 yard touchdown.
Jared Cook
Hello darkness my old friend. With Austin Ekeler trending in the wrong direction this week I can totally see Jared Cook being the forgotten man for the Chargers and his $3700 price on DraftKings is very attractive with high red zone upside.
TJ Hockenson
We wanted to be all over TE vs the Eagles a week ago and even though Waller didn’t play they still gave up a TE touchdown. Right back to that well this week with Hockenson grading as the best overall TE this week if you ignore pricing.
L.A. Rams
If you are not opposed to paying up for defenses it is hard to not like the Rams. They should get after Mills, limit points and potentially have a couple turnovers forced in this game.
Chicago Bears
Honestly do the 49ers scare you on offense? Opposing defenses against San Francisco have performed all season long and the Bears are a good mid/value defense to consider.
Denver Broncos
Ball security is an issue for Washington and this is a really bad OL vs DL match-up for them as well.
New Orleans Saints
The Saints defense has been much better away from the Superdome, but they are still too cheap considering how well they match-up against Tampa Bay. If Tampa takes the approach of trying to run the ball then that plays into the Saints hands to have a decent day on defense. If he throws then this D will rack up sacks and get an interception as well.
Fear not, the title of the article remains, but lets move the AMBUSH section at the end after providing the glimpse of what our player pool is. These are my favorite plays/themes/thoughts for the upcoming week. Some folks call this a CORE or a LOCK or whatever you want to give it a special label for, these are … The the plays to Ambush The Competition with this week.
Ambush Play #1 … Standing on a corner Jameis Winston down in NOLA
Because of the prices on Winston+Harris+Smith this week you have an ideal low price stack at the right positions QB & WR. I forsee Winston throwing for 320+ yards and 3+ scores, with one going to Tre’Quan Smith, and one going to Deonte Harris and combined they will have 8 catches for 120 of those yards. That is 32 points from the two cheap receivers and 24+ points from Winston. What more do we want?
Ambush Play #2 … It’s a RB in the FLEX week boys
In addition to the high end QB who are vacant this week, we are vacant on needing to chase after high dollar receivers as well this week. There’s a depth of riches at the RB position on this slate and I do not see any reason to not have three RB in your lineup.
Mixon, Henry, Robinson, Henderson are the four horsemen at RB in my stable this week but there’s a lot of other options who just didn’t make the cut that should avoid the floor game. Expect the theme to be RB carrying lineups with a narrow WR pool being the difference maker between 1st and 100th.
Ambush Play #3 … GIMME MORE, GIMME MORE
Speaking of limiting your WR pool, I would go all in on the top play and for me that guy this week is Mr. D.J. Moore for the Carolina Panthers.
Lineup 1, Gimme Moore. Lineup 2, Gimme Moore. Lineup 3, Gimme Moore.
Fire up DJ Moore as WR1 and enjoy the Britney GIF
Ambush Play #4 … Thunderstruck!
The passing game of the LA Chargers is going to get overlooked this week and Herbert throws 3 touchdowns with two going to Jared Cook.
Ambush Play #5 … FADES OF THE WEEK
- Jalen Hurts
- Eli Mitchell
- Stefon Diggs
- Deebo Samuel
What QB is getting overlooked this week and why is it …. Justin Herbert?
The name New England still carries slow and boring to many, but their defense is not in the elite category and this is a spot where we should buy into what we have seen with the Chargers most of the season prior to their egg game in Baltimore before the bye.
What WR is getting overlooked this week and why is it …. D.J. Moore?
Everyone see’s Sam Darnold the last few weeks and they want to vomit. Rightfully so, the guy sucks. But you have as good of a matchup as they will have all season long being in Atlanta and without CMC still and no TE blanket, they should just pepper DJ Moore all day long.
What RB is getting overlooked this week and why is it …. (gulp) Mike Davis?
I know this category is generally reserved for good players, which Mike Davis is not, and I know they got Cordy Pattersson dominating the touches. But if ever there was a week for Mike Davis to score the first touchdown of the weekend it had to be against his former team right? I wouldn’t rush to Mike Davis in DFS because Ridley/Pitts are going to get volume here too in the passing game but for same game parlays or player props you gotta like Mike Davis anytime touchdown scorer.
How does Mark Ingram returning impact Alvin Kamara?
The biggest impact that Mark Ingram should have is he gives the Saints 2 RB options with Kamara lined up as a WR more. They were starting to implement this right when Tony Jones Jr got hurt, but really they still didn’t do it as much because TJJ was still learning pass protection options. Ingram can fill that role immediately and free up Kamara to be used in passing situations more while reducing his rushing role. The other area I expect it to help with is play action. Early in Ingram’s career pre 2017 Drew Brees when they had speed receivers they would use play action for vertical shots and would also run flea-flickers often. I don’t know that it’s gonna happen this week, but either this week vs Tampa or next week vs the Falcons you will see a flea-flicker involving Ingram and Kenny Stills as the deep threat WR. Book it.
Favorite stacks for 1PM only?
I see a lot of ownership going to the Colts vs Titans game and I would rather be chasing the Panthers/Falcons game early.
What about the tilt 4PM Only slate?
This is a very spread out type of slate with no single game being a dud and no single game being the shootout you have to own. It’s hard to ignore James Robinson late on the 4PM only slate, but I would be contrarian with your 2nd RB and play one of Alex Collins, Antonio Gibson or Leonard Fournette.