Action packed Saturday as the DraftKings Main slate has Twelve games on it and we have an Ole Miss/LSU tilt today with Ole Miss favoried by 8.5 in a 76.5 total game. After that we drop down to a 66, 60.5, 60.5 set of totals afterwards.
LSU at Ole’ MISS
LSU Key Notes
- With the loss of star WR Keyshon Boutte a couple weeks ago we have seen an obvious opportunity share open up for some value plays. Last week I was on Jaray Jenkins and he came through with a huge 3 TD day but on only 4 catches total. His price has now leaped up to $5,700 and while he is still a fine play, the good value here is with Freshmen Brian Thomas and Jack Bech. The real question for the Tigers though is going to be how they play down the stretch with the news that Coach O will not be returning after the season. Worth monitoring.
- LSU leaned heavily on their ground game a week ago through Tyrion Davis-Price and likely gives him a good workload this week again, but QB Max Johnson was not required to do much beyond those three touchdowns to Jenkins a week ago and should bounce back massively this week.
- Johnson should be throwing well over 30 times this week and for $7,200 is a fantastic mid range QB who I would project to throw for close to 300 yards and 2+ touchdowns against the friendly Ole Miss passing defense which has given up 17 passing touchdown on the season.
Ole Miss Key Notes
- For starters, we gotta consider how to stack this game best, and the best value on Ole Miss is in the ground game — but it’s hard to decide between Snoop Conner and Henry Parrish, plus Jerrion Ealy the always fun value punt is out there too.
- I would make sure Dontario Drummond is in your lineup today over Matt Corrall if you go the passing game, that’s about all I can say about that. If you want to pair him with Matt Corrall you’ll need to start with finding the value that fits elsewhere first. But it’s obviously not a terrible play — but play Drummond for sure.
Oregon vs UCLA
Oregon Key Notes
- QB Anthony Brown will need to get it done through the air today, but just because UCLA has only given up 91/ypg on the ground doesn’t mean he wont have some rushing upside as always. But his true slate breaker potential lies in the ability for him to carve up the UCLA secondary. He’s gonna need 2 passing TD along with a rushing TD today. The rushing TD if not two I am confident in. The passing is where things get interesting.
- Lets assume Brown does have a 4 TD day and accounts for 28 of their points. Who is he throwing the 2 touchdowns too? That wins your slate today… Johnny Johnson, Jaylon Redd, Devon Williams.
UCLA key notes
- This is all about DTR, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who is a far better play in my mind than the chalky Caleb Williams for Oklahoma. Give me DTR, his rushing ability too and two primary WR targets in Kyle Phillips and Greg Dulcich.
There are two high chalk Quarterbacks that are very expensive in Matt Corral and Caleb Williams. I don’t mind Corral but he has a path to not hitting value through their ground game.
As for Caleb Williams. Consider me not biting on the big price tag. If you want exposure there, then get it through Haselwood at WR who is a value play. Otherwise, we want one of these mid range Quarterbacks.
Dorian Thompson Robinson (UCLA)
DTR will be able to run the ball and the home environment should be an edge in College Football. UCLA has had some rough games this year but a win over Oregon Saturday afternoon at home would be a great tide changer.
Max Johnson (LSU)
I think Max Johnson easily has a case to make for being the top QB when the slate is all said and done on paper. What really is yet to be seen is how exactly LSU responds with Coach O being pushed out the door news coming out. His price though in this type of matchup is just too good to ignore.
Anthony Brown (Oregon)
Game stack with DTR. I project this to be a shootout DFS game.
Deuce Vaughn (Kansas St)
Vaughn is seeing 24% target share, getting 18 rush attempts per game for over 5 ypc and draws a Texas Tech team which gives up 160 yards on the ground per week. So he will get his ground yards and he’ll get his receptions in the short passing game because Kan State has no other choice. All for sub 8k? Start here because Vaughn is either the lock 25 or he is the bust of the week and I am locking him in.
Hassan Haskins & Blake Corum (Michigan)
Today we shall call them…… Smashkins Corumkins!
If you cannot handle vulture warnings then play Haskins and Blake Corum together. Yes, I mean that in all seriousness because that will be the Michigan approach today and combined they should have 225 & 3 TD. Oh, and if you are wanting a little narrative Gus Johnson is calling this game, so cue up some 50+ yard touchdown scampers.
Noah Cain (Penn State)
Cain is nothing more (or less) than a simple value play to fill out your roster as a FLEX option. Illinois slows the game down some but generally doesn’t do much to stop opposing teams. If Clifford is out they could try and stack the box but then Dotson would go off on them, so I like Cain more if Clifford plays.
Contrarian play of the day
Kennedy Brooks (Oklahoma)
Brooks is going to come in under 10% ownership tomorrow against one of the worst rush defenses in the nation, which gives up 5.93 YPC, 250 yards per game, and 71% of their touchdowns via the ground! This also isn’t just some blip on the radar, this is Kansas Football people.
The reason for Brooks coming in extremely low owned is due to the QB change with the Sooners but I do not see why they won’t end up in a scenario where the ground game (Brooks & Eric Gray) are doing a ton of damage for the Sooners in a likely blowout game against the Jayhawks. I am not paying for Caleb and yet nobody is going to have Brooks in a spot where he could have a Jerome Ford 4 TD game? Things that make you go …. Hmm?
Cheaper Leverage Spots
Henry Parrish, Snoop Conner, Jerrion Ealy (Ole Miss)
Another crowded backfield situation and a great leverage pivot off the Ole Miss passing attack. In this game as a whole I like the idea of value on the LSU passing game with the Ole Miss rushing attack for a game stack.
Jahan Dotson (Penn St)
Listen. There are times in my life when I just don’t question things. I do not question a coaches decision to go for it on 4th down from his own 30 by running up the middle with a fat and slow running back allowing my team to get good field position in overtime. I do not question when the waitress brings over another beer when I was debating asking for the check. I do not question my wife when she does something nice for me. And I do not question my model when it has a stud WR at the top of the model against a shitty defense. So here we are.
I kind of prefer paying for Dotson in a scenario where Clifford is out, because I think the backup QB(s) would just come in and pepper Dotson all game long.
Kyle Phillips (UCLA)
I love me some UCLA Bruins and even though we have a dual threat QB, there is no reason to not like the passing game options between Phillips and Dulcich for correlation. Dulcich is a nice discounted price at $4800, but Phillips leads the way with 23% target share and 6 touchdowns on the season.
Erik Ezukanma (Texas Tech)
E2 is $6,500 will see 7 to 10 targets, should catch most of them with an opponent allowing 72% completion percentage against and is in a funnel situation where Kansas State stops the run and gets beat through the air. This is a very good back and forth game and you’ll want two sides in it if you have the chalky Deuce Vaughn.
Trevor Wilson (Kansas)
Three games ago Wilson saw 12 targets, and for the season he has 21% of the Jayhawks targets. You hear about “game flow” all the time and playing from behind. Well, I am confident Kansas is going to be behind in the second half and Wilson should garner targets at a cheap price vs a defense which only gives up points through the air this year. Seems like a logical value play for $3,900.
PROJECTED CHALK
Ole Miss and LSU is gonna be very popular, and lots of interest here will be on the value plays — which I generally do not hate.
FAVORITE BETS
Northwestern/Michigan OVER 51
Kansas State / Texas Tech OVER 60.5
Oklahoma State +7