So I hear there is a football game tonight and people want to gamble on it? Yeah, that sounds like fun, who we got on this fine Monday in late October? Ah yes, a rain filled Seattle home game between two teams who rarely play a drama free prime-time/Island type game and it will feature Jameis Winston vs Geno Smith. Just what we all signed up for my friends.
The Saints are coming in off a BYE week and are getting a good amount of key players back healthy. Specifically tonight for showdown purposes everyone will point to Tre’Quan Smith returning as a viable WR option but they’re also going to now be without Deonte Harris who would have been a key player in tonights contest. Overall for New Orleans they will have back two key offensive lineman in Erik McCoy (C) and Terron Armstead (LT) which are two huge boosts for them going on the road tonight. Defensively they’re expected to get back LB K’Won Alexander and DE Marcus Davenport tonight as well.
The Seahawks big news is of course still no Russell Wilson as Geno Smith is filling in for the star QB who remains on IR with a busted hand. Seattle too is banged up in the skill position region of their depth chart as RB Alex Collins who is filling in for Chris Carson is battling a groin injury.
And then there is Taysom Hill. I am sad to report that he is still ‘nursing’ a concussion which he received from a penalty against Washington two weeks ago that drew zero fine and the NFL can kindly go fuck themselves about that.
CAPTAINS
The whole world will rightfully be on Alvin Kamara tonight in the CAPTAIN spot and I honestly do not see why the Saints would not run the ball offensively quite a bit in these conditions and against the Seahawks defense. Kamara has had a greatly increased workload so far on the ground this season as the Saints have played a time consumption approach offensively and they also have run into some bad luck with injuries around other RB. The RB depth chart in terms of touches is likely Kamara 90% with spared touches from RB Devine Ozigbo, FB Alex Arma, maybe practice squad RB Lamar Miller and former RB now WR Ty Montgomery.
I don’t see how Kamara won’t dominate the touch volume for the Saints and Seattle really doesn’t have anyone who is going to lock him down in the short passing game when they do that as well, so of course he is in our mix on the Saints side of the ball.
For Seattle, it’s tough to lock in on Lockett or Metcalf as Geno Smith is likely going to be unpredictable in his usage of the two, but Lockett should have the better statistical game between these two, but really I don’t love either enough to be in the Captain.
PRIMARY FLEX POOL PLAYS
This is one of the worst Showdown slates I can ever recall doing for a Saints game. I would suspect that Kamara is 98% owned as he rightfully should be and even if he winds up with only 12 points that should still be in the top 6 and salary won’t be an issue tonight either. So after Kamara, Lockett and Metcalf, who do we trust? Here’s some thoughts on expected stat lines for viable players.
Marquez Callaway (NO): With TreQuan Smith back that finally gives the Saints a WR who will run routes over the middle of the field and (also run block) which should allow for Callaway to get more 1:1 coverage where the outside CB cannot jam him with protection over the top from the Safety. Look for a big shot attempt to Callaway on the outside early in this game and if that works it could bump Winston up to 2 touchdowns.
Juwan Johnson (NO): Johnson is the best #2 red zone threat for the Saints offense after Kamara tonight. You will want him when he scores a 13 yard touchdown catch.
Tyler Lockett (SEA)
Freddie Swain (SEA): I think a lot of folks will try to throw a dart on a Saints WR (Stills or Smith) for a one big catch deep play, but Swain is the type of WR who gets free against the Saints secondary and catches a big bomb if Geno can just get it down the field to him.
New Orleans Defense (NO)
GAME PREDICTION
The Saints have a massive advantage in the ground game this week. The return of Armstead, McCoy, TreQuan (Excellent run blocker) and possibly former Seahawk Nick Vannett (TE) should only strengthen their advantage on the ground. If you want a historical game to replicate the gamescript on the Saints then look at their win over the Lions from last season when the Saints ran it 42 times for 164 yards. The challenge is Kamara won’t get it 42 times and guessing among the others before inactives are announced is gonna be hard.
New Orleans passing game will be spread out. Callaway will lead the way with Johnson and/or Vannett catching a TD in the red zone.
Seattle will need a strong game from Tyler Lockett and a big play from Swain to stay in this game.
Saints win 20-17