NFL · October 3, 2021

NFL DFS: Thursday Night Football Showdown – Week 4 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New England Patriots

Comeback Tour

After winning six Superbowl’s in New England Tom Brady makes his triumphant return to Gilette Stadium as an opponent. With Brady quarterbacking the defending Superbowl champion Buccaneers going up against Bill Belichick things should get interesting in a hurry as these two engage in what should be one of the better chess matches of the NFL season filled with plenty of storylines.

NOTE: All pricing references pertain to DraftKings

Showdown Strategy

When Showdown slates first became available I was not a big fan simply because I don’t often like change. When these slates were designed we hadn’t ever seen anything like them in the DFS world. Come to realize a few years later I really enjoy them. On a normal slate with multiple games, I would typically describe myself as a cash game player primarily. That’s where my focus typically lies; cash games/single entry tournaments and from there I’ll build lineups for multi-entry GPP contests. For me, the cash game/single entry strategy kind of goes out the window as I’ll hardly if ever play double-ups and single-entry contests in showdown. Instead, I’ll take a core of players, more than often three to four players in the game that I want in virtually every lineup, typically 20 or so, that I build. The core will usually include both quarterbacks and one to two skill players that I have to have. Like much of fantasy football volume is king but it comes with a price. The wrinkle is the captain’s spot in showdown lineups. The captain’s spot generates 1.5 times the amount of fantasy points scored however a player’s salary goes up in the captain’s spot obviously. Locking in a core and deciding on a captain is how I’ll start building lineups. From there I’ll fill in the rest of the spots with correlation and value plays. Don’t be afraid to get a little weird with these lineups because virtually anything goes!

Core Plays

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: QB Tom Brady

New England Patriots: QB Mac Jones, WR Jakobi Meyers

Tom Brady to play his first NFL game in Boston since leaving Patriots

Brady. There isn’t much to say here, obviously he’s in full command of this offense with weapons galore at his disposal. Because Brady is so good at spreading the ball around it’s tough to link him up to anyone in particular in a core. Mac Jones who has the impossible task of replacing Brady in New England – let’s not talk about the one year of Cam Newton – and he’s done a solid job thus far three games into his career. Meyers has been a favorite target for Jones with nine, six, and 14 targets in his first three games. Tampa has had issues in the secondary and Meyers is priced favorably at $8,400.

*NOTE: All plays above are obviously “Captain” viable

Captain Plays

WR Chris Godwin (TB)

I fully expect the Brady to be throwing the ball around the yard and expect that Godwin will continue to be targeted heavily. Godwin has 14, five, and seven targets through three games with two touchdowns. For me Antonio Brown and Mike Evans are too volatile for this spot so Godwin in the middle of the field, especially with Gronk out will see a lot of work.

QB Mac Jones (NE)

Mac Jones updates: How did Patriots rookie QB perform in Week 2 of  preseason - DraftKings Nation

Jones has thrown the ball at least 30 times in every game and I don’t see that being any different in this game with how good Tampa’s run defense is. At $14,100 in the Captain’s spot Jones is priced well in a game that the Patriots will likely be chasing in.

*Captain plays will always be options other than those mentioned in the “core plays” section.

Flex Plays

WR Antonio Brown (TB)

Brown also comes back to New England as a foe – he was only a Patriot for like five minutes but that’s beside the point – but he’s just $7,000 and one of Brady’s favorite targets. Brown missed last week game but had a big Week 1 effort against the Cowboys. I like Brown a lot in this game and his salary is great.

WR Nelson Agholor (NE)

Last week Agholor saw eight targets but hauled in just two of them for 17 yards. Agholor still has a case of the drops here and there but he doe have big-play ablity against a Bucs secondary that can give up some big plays.

Also consider:

WR Mike Evans (TB)

  • Evans is a huge red-zone target and he saw four red-zone targets alone in Week 2. He’s seen 10 and nine targets in his last two games.

WR Kendrick Bourne (NE)

  • The 49er casualty has found himself a home with the Pats with eight targets last week.

K’s Ryan Succop (TB), Nick Folk (NE)

TE Cameron Brate (TB)

GOOD LUCK!!

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