So, I kind of liked the format from last week and I think I will stick with it for now. At least, until we get back to Hawaii in January. I will give you my rationale if I’m off-the-wall on some picks. And, with me, that’s not uncommon.
BIG NOTE: Since we are now in Japan, the lineup lock time is Wednesday evening at around 7:30 PM here. (And I’m on the East Coast)!
ANOTHER NO-CUT EVENT! FEEL FREE TO TAKE SOME CHANCES!
$10,000 and Above
- Xander Schauffele ($11,000) – I always like Xander. I hesitate anymore on any of the guys that are in this category simply because it limits us with the rest of the lineup.
- Will Zalatoris ($10,500) – Yeah, I think he’s my high-priced Ian Poulter!
- Collin Morikawa ($11,200) – like Xander, his price makes me pause. But, in these tournaments, a win out of any of these 3 is not going to shock anyone.
Note: I started breaking this Tier down a little further for one reason and one reason only. Everyone thinks that it is a “must have” to win a contest (or at least cash). It’s not! You really need a Top 10 from these guys (and preferably a Top 5) to validate what you have to give up as far as value on your remaining picks. Seriously, your average “per golfer” is below $8K if you start with any of these three.
$9,000 to $9,900
- Rickie Fowler ($9,800) – I’m still not sure about Rickie! He looked good last week, but he’s looked like farm fodder (We are Farmers!) for the last year. Is this a Jordan Spieth like turnaround or did we just see an anomaly! Why the Hell couldn’t they leave his pricing in the low $8K range?
- Joaquin Niemann ($9,900) – Making cuts! Playing well! Pricing sucks this week on DK!
- Mackenzie Hughes ($9,000) – May as well get a solid player that’s playing well at the bottom of this tier.
$7,500 to $8,900
- C. T. Pan ($8,800) – Last three events? T11-T6-3! In this field, probably worth a play!
- K. H Lee ($8,700) – No, I’m not playing the Asian narrative since we are in Japan. However, he has three Top 25s in a row.
- Harry Higgs ($7,500) – T9 and T27 in his last two events. During this time of year, it’s probably a good idea to stick with guys that are playing and playing well as opposed to the ones that pop into a tournament to shake off the rust.
$7,400 and Under
- Takumi Kanaya ($7,200) – You’re thinking “thought you said you weren’t playing the Asian narrative” aren’t you? Trust me, I’m not! I had to read up to remember this guy, but he was one of the top – if not the top – amateurs in the world for some time. He now plays on the Japanese Tour. In his last seven events on that Tour, he’s finished Top 20 or better. And, no, you won’t see that on the DraftKings or FanDuels recent play listings. However, if you’re going to play the names you know, you sometimes have to play the names you don’t. If this guy finishes Top 20 or better at $7,200, it’s well worth my research. If it helps you win a GPP, you’re welcome!
- Matt Jones ($7,200) – He’s priced low for how well he’s played. Not only has he gone T38 and T27 in his last two events, but he’s made 37 birdies and 2 eagles. Making the cut and recording those scores equals VALUE!
- Henrik Norlander ($7,400)
- Tom Hoge ($7,000)
- SUNG KANG ($6,300) – Again with the Asian narrative! I’m starting to sound like Tommy G used to when he made golf picks when he was on SiriusXM! For the price, you CANNOT look at his recent performance and say “I can do better”! You can’t! Unless of course Kanaya does what I expect. Sung Kang has gone T32-T27-T65 and T47 in his recent events and has scored between 69 and 97.5 points on DK. Who wouldn’t take 10.95x to 15.5x as a return?
There are a lot of guys playing well right now and playing more that the top tier guys. Golf is repetition! Playing makes you a better player!
FADES
$9,000 and Above: Erik Van Rooyen ($9,500)
Why? Because he’s only averaging 60.8 DK points and very few of these guys are playing poorly. Oh, and I recommended Rickie so I can’t fade him. Although, it won’t surprise me if he is the FADE.
$7,500 to $8,900: Ryan Palmer ($8,300)
He hasn’t played much since July and missed the cut at the Shriners. Fading guys in this range and the lower range is tough. In fact, I will no longer give a fade below $7,500 because, well, why? Even in this range, unless Tony Romo is in the field and priced this high, fading someone really isn’t a bold call in my opinion.
$7,400 and Below: NONE – Have at it!