I can make a strong case that we will see high scoring games in the three playoff match-ups today.
First off since we are in Game 4 of each series were getting not only the backend of most rotations but also a scenario where hitters are getting more advantage facing the same bullpen arms once again and if Milwaukee dares to roll out Adrian Houser again vs Joc Pederson then they should be removed from Baseball forever. Only the Astros are really rolling out a ‘top’ starter today as Lance McCullers Jr gets to take the hill once again for them.
The weather is the other factor today. The wind last night in L.A. was insane and is a little calmer today but most definitely blowing out to right field, as is the case in Chicago where the weather is blowing the wind out to left and in Atlanta it’s warm but they are right square in the middle of shadow time at 5:15 which could benefit the pitchers early.
Pitching is hard to get creative with today as there are really two viable options and then two longshot guys. Here is what we need to know about all six starters today
The chalk and likely best plays
- Charlie Morton … $7,800 … I am not a fan of the Braves going with Morton here instead of Ynoa because the shadows that I expect early in this game would have benefited Ynoa enough to get through 4-6 innings and then Atlanta can turn over to a bullpen which is pitching fantastic while saving Morton/Fried for any game 5 scenario if they got there. But here we are and C-Mort hast to be considered a solid play for similar reasons with the shadows benefiting him.
- Lance McCullers … $8,200 … Process of elimination brings us back to McCullers, who I do not think you should have 100% exposure on today. He’ll be 60%+ because many other pitchers are not expected to pitch deep and he has dominated the White Sox. But he won’t dominate them today, so the question is can we get 5 innings out of McCullers to beat out other choices?
The contrarian group
- Carlos Rodon … $8,100 … Rodon’s arm is a big question. He hasn’t pitched yet in the playoffs and was really shaky down the stretch in terms of durability. Houston also does not strike out much and especially not vs LHP. He is a very contrarian play, but a big longshot
- Anthony DeSclafani … $7,6000 … I cannot endorse the Italian against a Dodger team fighting for their lives tonight and with wind benefiting their LHB. Even if they are down to really just one dominant LHB right now.
Not touching at all …
- Eric Lauer … No thank you
- Tony Gonsolin … Or whoever the Dodgers decide to roll out will not go deep enough to warrant using
These are the spots I would focus on the most for a main lineup.
- LA Dodgers … This series was always destined to go five games and the path for the Dodgers is to jump on the Italian early and often tonight. LA is really missing the services of Max Muncy andwill need Corey Seager to carry them tonight.
- Atlanta Braves … Shadows are the only concern I have for a Braves stack. I say only because Eric Lauer is hot trash and the perfect guy they can hit 3+ HR against.
The team with the most chance to break the slate at low ownership is
- Chicago White Sox … Everyone will default onto Lance McCullers and the White Sox simply need to be patient against him early and he will get rattled. I like Chicago to steal this game today and they would do it off their bats hitting 3 HR.
POSITIONAL TARGETS
CATCHER
- Travis d’Arnaud
- Buster Posey
FIRST BASE
- Freddie Freeman
- Matt Beaty – Good value if he starts
- Yuli Gurriel
SECOND BASE
- Ozzie Albies
- Trea Turner
THIRD BASE
- Alex Bregman
- Austin Riley
SHORTSTOP
- Corey Seager
- Carlos Correa
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Mookie Betts
- Eloy Jimenez
- Kyle Tucker
- Luis Robert
Smaller Dongers Club in the playoffs …
- Corey Seager – SS – Dodgers – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Alex Bregman – 3B – Astros
- Ozzie Albies – 2B – Braves
- Matt Beaty – 1B – Dodgers
BETS
- OVER in all three games
- White Sox ML
- Dodgers ML
- Braves ML