We are celebrating the Falcons blowing a 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl all week long and tomorrow is the NFL Free-Roll Contest on DraftKings.
What a long and wild week we had. Injuries, Murder, Lies, Divorce, its like we are watching a bad mini-series on Lifetime network without the semi-attractive woman. Wait, no, I have never watched Lifetime network, I don’t even know what it is.
Moving on now, we head into a Week 9 slate that has the obvious drama of Jordan Love starting at $4,400 on DraftKings and it once again reminds me of the difference between “chalk” and “hype” when talking about players. Jordan Love isn’t chalk, Jordan Love is hype. He is hype because of his $4.4k price tag for a starting QB against a terrible defense on DraftKings which is the site who influences all conversation in DFS and in the media.
The reality is, he really doesn’t matter on FanDuel at $6,000 because the price savings there aren’t as drastic compared to the field, but yes, he is a nice value QB because of the opponent and for that reason he will have ownership. But he’s more hype than chalk if you understand what the difference between the two is.
Injury News
I know there is a lot of chaos out there but honestly none of it appears to be impacting where we are going this week, so nothing that I am watching out for. I expect everyone mentioned in this article to play.
Weather Information
Also no weather information which is of relevance.
Possible Trap/Look ahead spots
None
Justin Herbert
Right back to my boy and the cover of this section all season long. Justin “Juice” Herbert as I call him was no doubt rough again last week against the Patriots giving him two down games in a row and now comes in with a little discount and some folks being afraid because they can only trust what they just saw and we don’t care about those people as he is going to connect with Mike Williams and Jared Cook for touchdowns while throwing for 300+ yards as he is able to pick apart the Eagles.
He’s the most sure thing play this week and lets screw all those people who don’t play him.
Lamar Jackson
You know the drill with Lamar, its the rushing upside that can easily push him into the 30 point range due to rushing in 1 or 2 touchdowns and this is a game I can see him pushing that 100 yard rushing bonus as well. The passing game should shine vs Minnesota through Brown and Andrews and Lamar is likely going to have a really good rushing game in a high scoring inter-conference match-up.
Jordan Love
I had Tua wrote up as my cheaper QB this week but opted to just mention the Love train on DraftKings. I honestly think that Love will just come out and throw to Adams all game long and if you are looking for an option not named Herbert or Lamar then just take his value. He should hit 12-14 fantasy points and I am okay with that.
Dalvin Cook
After three weeks of being limited or not playing Cook was back in full action on Sunday night putting up a very quiet under the radar 25.3 score. In that game though we saw more bad Kirk Cousins for the Vikings and whenever that seems to happen and they then go on the road we get the Dalvin Cook show. Zimmer’s approach against good teams on the road has been to tell his offense to run through DalCook and this is a good sneaky 3 TD spot for him.
Ezekiel Elliott
One thing I mentioned on our Thursday night football live chat in Discord was how there is a perception that Tony Pollard is a bad thing for Zeke. The reality is Pollard is just another guy in the offense and Zeke’s still dominating 2:1 in terms of volume and production. Denver has been quietly below average against the run and if we get some check downs from Dak here in a funnel scenario due to Denver’s decent CB then we have a strong scenario for Zeke to have a 25+ point game.
Nick Chubb
I am in love with the Browns offense this weekend and that was well before the OBJ drama escalated to where it wound up finishing. This should be a show me spot for Cleveland vs the Bengals bad defense and it starts with the Browns O-Line clearing the way for Chubb. No doubt I am expecting that Cleveland will let Baker shine in the passing game and he has some great match-ups I like as well however Chubb is still their best all around skill position player and should be expected to perform decently this week.
Who are the other RB we can consider?
Mark Ingram
If Ingram can get roughly ~70 yards this week against a bad Falcons rush defense he will become the Saints all time leading rusher passing Deuce McAllister. What better time to get him that spot than in a home game vs the Falcons roughly 28 minutes into the first half taking it down to the 3 yard line only to punch it in on the next play. Taysom Hill is playing his first game back from a concussion and one of the main reasons the Saints are still ok for now on offense is the addition of Ingram to free up Kamara in the passing game and overall lesson his workload. I expect a 15 carry game from Ingram — who is also a VERY good screen RB — something Atlanta struggles with. Bold call of the week here for me is that Ingram leads the Saints in fantasy points this week. He is your value RB to consider in the FLEX
Aaron Jones
I am going to prefer Adams, see below why, however we know that Green Bay has a good rushing match-up considering it is the Chiefs defense. Dillon should be involved here too and it just isn’t enough for me to vault A.J. up to the top, he is mostly a 4pm only consideration.
Josh Jacobs
Volume remains a challenge for JJ. The matchup vs Giants is really nice though.
Mike Williams
The Eagles passing defense is a little bit of an enigma. On one hand they are only giving up 212 yards per game to wide receivers because they are doing a good job of limiting the big plays, but on the other hand they’re giving up > 71% completion rate and 67% of touchdowns allowed have come through the air. The bottom line here is that they cannot cover and when they get into the red zone they’ll have no matchup to stop Mike Williams who has a size advantage over every DB the Eagles can roll out there.
Marquise Brown
It’s obviously all about big plays with Brown who has had a better season than you might think. The Ravens are getting their FOURTH straight home game which is just un-heard of and in that stretch he has 3 touchdowns and at least one catch over 20 yards in each game. This is about as good of a spot as he should have all season as well vs a slow and incompetent Vikings secondary.
Tyreek Hill
Once I figure out how the Packers plan to limit Hill I will get back to you….. Ok, I am back and they have no plan. Roll the Reek.
Courtland Sutton
I continue to just get the Broncos WR wrong every single week, but I am once again here to take a shot. I tried to stay away, but I cannot resist the urge to use a WR vs the Cowboys secondary that has been playing above expectations and still gives up too many big plays at times. If Teddy B can play well enough then there’s production here and Sutton draws my interest.
Emmanuel Sanders
If by some chance Cole Beasley is out for the Bills then we should bump up Manny Sanders as one of the best plays on the weekend. They are already without Dawson Knox and this Buffalo team might want to just get in and get out of Jacksonville but it won’t happen without 2 TD from Josh Allen and who in the world is going to be covering Sanders with 3 guys worried about Diggs?
Contrarian Star
Davante Adams
I really think that Adams is a MUST own if you roster Jordan Love. Yes, young QB’s will scramble at times which could make Love naked ideal. Actually, making love naked is always ideal, but I promised myself I wouldn’t write about Taysom Hill too much this week so lets not go there. Anywho, how does one not walk up to Jordan Love and say hey dummy you wanna have a career in this league? Throw the fucking ball to Adams every single time you pass. There is ZERO reason for Adams to not have over 10 catches against this horrific Chiefs defense. He might lose out on those 1 yard touchdown throws which A-Rod gets him but Adams is being vastly underowned considering how popular his QB is going to be. This is your leverage on Jordan Love by stacking up more Green Bay receivers than the field.
Value WR
Donovan Peoples-Jones
DPJ > OBJ. Welcome to the break out play of the weekend as Baker Mayfield is for CERTAIN going to find his big play guy this week and that would be one Donovan Peoples-Jones. The Bengals have decent safety’s but corners who cannot cover on islands. The matchup is good, the motivation is no doubt there and this will be a good back and forth higher scoring game to want exposure in. His DK price at $4400 is better than Jordan Love’s at $4400.
Mike Gesicki
Another week, and another likely 8 targets, 6 catches, 85 yards for Gesicki. Houston is trash, Houston gives up points to TE, Tua loves him, lets move on. There are no other TE that I want to even consider outside of a few punt plays on DraftKings which are more reserved for MME spots. Gesicki, all in. Nobody else on your main lineup. Thank you and have a wonderful weekend.
New Orleans Saints
Since 2017 the Saints have faced Matt Ryan and the Falcons 6 times. They have sacked him 30 times in those six games, forced 5 fumbles and produced 6 interceptions in that stretch. Oh, and this years version of the Saints defense right now is deeper than any of those other units and will be facing a Falcons offense which is led by Kyle Pitts and Cordarelle Patterson. So long as the Saints are not asleep and make sure they tackle well they should be in position to put up another very solid score this week. Not to mention Deonte Harris is way overdue for a big punt return.
LA Chargers
You have to run on the Chargers and the only guy who the Eagles consistently will run with is Jalen Hurts. There will be a good amount of sack opportunities for the LAC defense this week.
San Francisco 49ers
With Kyler and Nuk both banged up the 49ers defense can be considered as a value defense.
Ambush Play #1 … Let Dalvin Cook, the Vikings go into Baltimore and give the Ravens a dose of their own medicine on the ground
This is my favorite game on the slate (see below), but Dalvin Cook is the AMBUSH play of the week.
Ambush Play #2 … Bakers Revenge, Browns drop 30+ on Bengals with Mayfield having a solid game with Donovan Peoples Jones
The Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals game will shine enough to use one off plays from it, but I totally envision the Browns coming out with an air attack and DPJ should have a really big game on the outside for Cleveland.
Ambush Play #3 … Mike Williams has 100+ yards receiving and a touchdown
Justin Herbert to Mike Williams combination will be as safe as they come and the Chargers/Eagles game will live up to the potential expectations in it. The size advantage which Williams have will prove to be the key part here.
Ambush Play #4 … GAME STACKS
Vikings vs Ravens
- Lamar Jackson
- Dalvin Cook
- Justin Jefferson
- Marquise Brown
Browns vs Bengals
- Baker Mayfield
- Nick Chubb
- Donovan Peoples-Jones
- J’Marr Chase
Texans vs Dolphins
- Tua
- Mike Gisecki
- Brandin Cooks
Chargers vs Eagles
- Justin Herbert
- Kenneth Gainwell
- Mike Williams
- Keenan Allen or Jared Cook
Ambush Play #5 … FADES OF THE WEEK
- QB -Josh Allen
- RB – Chase Edmonds
- WR -DJ Moore, Amari Cooper
- TE – Darren Waller, Travis Kelce
Who is getting overlooked this week and why is it … Dalvin Cook
Cook’s ownership on DK will still get there based on price but he will be down near 5% on Fanduel this week. We just have a ton of options out there at RB this week and some think that the Vikings are going to be in a scenario where they are “trailing” and have to throw to catch-up. Well, even in that scenario Dalvin is catching passes, so sign me up.
Top Bets
Vikings +6
San Francisco -2.5 … Zero reason why San Francisco is a favorite even with the Cardinals being banged up. Lock it in.
Browns/Bengals OVER 47