A very strong set of games tonight for a Friday evening in mid/late November and the smell of holiday college football is right around the corner. By now we know enough about all these teams to be confident that they are what they are when determining strengths and weaknesses, so do not overlook the obvious scenarios.
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Memphis vs Houston
The Houston passing game, ranked #31 in the nation should thrive against the #107 ranked Memphis pass defense. Quarterback Clayton Tune has thrown 2+ touchdowns in each of his last four games and 21 on the season, and in this match-up at his $6,900 price tag he is an easy plug and play option. This game sets up as that typical CFB run it back on the other side scenario where Memphis has two guys that can have big reception days with Calvin Austin (31% target share) and Sean Dykes (13% target share but a nice $4.4k salary). I am not interested that much in either teams running game so this is a good passing game stack.
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Clayton Tune, Houston – $6,900
Not a lot of good Quarterbacks in the mix tonight, so we’re going to take the most sure thing to get near 20 points.
Seth Henigan, Memphis – $8,200
This price tag isn’t favorable, but he is a nice contrarian play today to stack with Tune.
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Max Borghi, WSU – $5,200
I am banking on Borghi getting in the box tonight. He has 8 rushing touchdowns on the season, is a home heavy favorite and facing a bad rush defense. Not someone who is going to come out and give us 150 yards or a ton of catches, but the touchdown upside here is really strong.
Frank Gore Jr, USM – $6,600
If you weren’t already aware of this, Frank Gore has a kid and he is really damn good. Gore is the bellcow for the Southern Miss offense getting 16 carries per game and Louisiana Tech is a soft rushing defense allowing 4.6 ypc and 22 rushing touchdowns on the season.
Marcus Williams, LT – $6,500
In the same game as Frank Gore I expect a ground game spot for both teams. Williams is coming off a huge game a week ago but should have another high volume game vs a poor Southern Miss defense.
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Nathaniel Dell, Houston – $8,200
Dell has been the favorite target for Clayton Tune as he see’s 28.6% target share and has 10 or more targets in three of their last four games. The Memphis pass defense gives up 260 yards through the air per game, a 65% completion rate and 56% passing to rushing touchdown advantage. Dell has 8 touchdowns on the season and is the most likely player to connect with Tune tonight.
Calvin Austin, Memphis – $7,900
Austin is one of the top target machines in the country and when Memphis is in a scenario that they’re behind in the second half he generally will have a high volume game. He is the best run it back option in this game stack.
Kyle Williams, UNLV – $5,500
Despite having the lowest total (41) on the board tonight the Aztecs/Rebels game is one that I think has some intrigue. Williams has gotten going of late with two big games in his last four as Freshman QB Cameron Friel has played better too. This is mostly a funnel scenario where UNLV won’t be able to run the ball at all and their passing game should run through Williams. At his 5.5k price I would project him to have a 5 catch for 55 yard floor which is a good starting point indeed.
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DEEPEST POSITION
Wide Receiver
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VALUE POSITION
Running Back
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BETS
San Diego State/UNLV – Over 41
Memphis/Houston – OVER 59.5
Louisiana Tech -15.5
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CORE BUILD
Tune, Borghi, Dell, Austin
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