Merry Christmas to all and I really hope someone is going to finish off the NFL regular season strong. We are going to embark into 2022 and there’s going to be more that I invest into the Ambush product in the coming year. Now really isn’t the space where I want to reflect on that side of the house but it will come soon.
Time now though for figuring out the COVID related mess that is going around the NFL and so we shall do this in the most GIFtastic way possible. Let’s go Santa.
Quick note: I will be on a plane headed down to the Superdome to back up Ian Book and Blake Bortles for the Monday Night game. And by back them up I mean I will be screaming from the club level to hand the ball off to Kamara so I can go grab another drink confidently. So don’t expect me too busy in Discord on Saturday or Sunday.
By the way, has anyone pointed out that Ian Book kind of looks like the son of Uncle Rico?
I am not the only one who see’s this right???
Alright, so onto the main slate COVID issues.
Here is who has COVID….
Or maybe nobody has it because … well, its a fucking COLD. But hey, let’s not get down that rabbit hole right now. Here is who else has COVID-19 that you might not be aware of. Because by now you probably know Dalvin Cook, Tyreek Hill, Brandin Cooks, Austin Ekeler, Laviska Shenault, etc…
But … did you know what these people also have COVID/19?
The Kool-Aid man has been placed in COVID-19 protocols. He is fully vaccinated and since it is the Holiday seen, he is spiked as well.
The SNL Spartan Cheerleaders have tested positive as well and given their close contact with Alec Baldwin we can assure you they did get the shot.
Jaxon de Ville, the Jaguars mascot, is un vaccinated and will be placed into the 10 day protocol period.
JJ Arcega-Whiteside is not COVID-19 positive, he just sucks and every time the Eagles throw him the ball they should play Rock ‘n’ Roll Part 2 so the fans can say HEY – YOU SUCK!
Former Minnesota Vikings Mascot, Ragnar is NOT COVID Positive because he is a fucking man.
The Groundhog from Groundhog Day is COVID-19 positive. In fact, he has already died 500k times, each of which has been included in the State of Pennsylvania Health Department Records. The State of New York has petitioned to acquire the Groundhog in a trade for future considerations…
John Coffey was clearly displaying some COVID-19 symptoms long before anyone recognized it.
The cheerleaders in the longest yard remake have been placed in protocol
Jabba the hut was in close contact with Princess Leah who tested positive even though she’s technically already dead. So he has been placed in protocol.
The entire staff of Awesemo.com has been cleared since none of them ever leave their fucking Apartments.
All Five Guys french fries have been placed in quarantine since Taysom Hill has tested positive for COVID-19.
Cam Newton does not have COVID-19, but he wants to be special, so he has placed himself into COVID-19 protocols
Peggy Bundy has tested positive for COVID-19, but not Al Bundy who has asked Peggy to continue to wear a mask.
And last but not least, Billy the Marlin from the Miami Marlins is COVID-19 positive.
There, now you are hopefully caught up.
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Last Minute Injury News to Monitor
We have another week of some sticky situations and so I will address this differently down in the positional breakdown sections.
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Weather Information
We have SNOW this week and in all places, out in Seattle. Temps are going to be low enough for the snow to fall but it likely won’t be sticking much on the field.
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Possible Trap/Look ahead spots
This late in the season it’s very hard to have a trap scenario, however here’s a few things to note related to various teams.
- The Buccaneers simply need to win one of their final three games to win the NFC South. They play Carolina twice with the Jets in between. I mean, they can basically sleep their way to this.
- Teams who are playing under a first year head coach typically are going to try and finish strong despite lacking talent. But of the first year head coach teams the Lions and Falcons are the two who stand out the most as bad teams who are playing better than we expected.
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There are a considerable amount of Quarterbacks who made my ‘in consideration’ list this week and a few of them are bad QB’s in good spots.
Injuries to monitor – Both Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields were worthy of consideration this week but they have both been ruled out already. Patrick Mahomes certainly might feel like a low owned pivot if Tyreek and Kelce are activated but I am not going there either way.
Most popular plays among the public:
Jalen Hurts and Matthew Stafford – I do not like either one of these plays this week. This doesn’t mean that they will have sub 10 point weeks but I am not rushing to jump on either of them. They’ll both get lots of production from their RB situations and in particular Hurts and the Eagles rushing game is so good right now there is no need for them to have him doing the rushing damage himself. Stafford to me is never consistent in Minnesota from his Lions days and the Rams are on a short week which means get the game over without running too many plays on offense.
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The Ambush Play
Josh Allen
Josh AllenI was really torn between Allen and Joe Burrow as which one was going to get into this Ambush column and while it’s very close I can say they’re both way ahead of Justin Herbert this week because that game is gonna be over at the half. Allen has been as consistent as they come late when he isn’t playing in 40 mph wind games with a stupid offensive game plan. His ankle looked just fine against the Panthers last week and the week before against Tampa Bay. Look for Josh Allen to account for all of Buffalo’s offense once again and I am taking a long shot at getting that 30 point ceiling game from QB this week on a slate where most will be in the 16-23 range.
Also Will Play
Joe Burrow
Burrow feasted on Baltimore earlier this year and all that has changed since then is the Ravens getting more banged up in the secondary. Do not be shocked if Baltimore finds a way to win this game though and for that reason I believe Burrow is going to be throwing for four Quarters & will put up a ton of yards. Play his anytime rushing TD prop as well.
Matt Ryan
You should know one of my favorite MLB quotes to joke about is “Jimmy Key? Jimmy Key? What is he like 45? It sucked….” Well – that was most certainly Matt 28-3 Ryan and the Falcons in the red zone against the Niners last week. But what gets overlooked is that he’s got three players he will throw too and that is all so long as he has time and an opponent lacking some defensive talent. Gimme the Lions off another upset win to lay an egg again this week and Ryan to contribute 3 touchdowns for the Falcons.
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The Ambush Plays
David Montgomery
How much David Montgomery is too much David fricken Montgomery? Would you believe that I wanted to use Josh Fields in this game? Well I did and I was willing to pair him with D-Mont but now with Foles you HAVE to lock David Montgomery in for 20 touches against a bottom third rush defense playing off a short turn around knowing their season is over. And if we are lucky, it will be a snow globe game.
Najee Harris
This should wind up being the low owned sleeper play of the week. I don’t like much in the Steelers passing game and with the Chiefs getting good pressure on the QB we’re likely going to see a heavy check down game to Najee Harris.
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The Good Chalk
Justin Jackson (if Ekeler is out)
If Ekeler sits then Justin Jackson becomes a must play. If Ekeler is in then its only Ekeler and on DraftKings.
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The Forgotten Men
Cordarrelle Patterson
Perfectly fine to pair with Matt Ryan given his usage in the passing game. Lions offer a nice chance for him to get that rushing TD he failed to get by inches a week ago.
Darrell Henderson
With Sony Michel having an increase in workload we have a nice bargain on a RB vs the Vikings. Very much like his DK price tag of just $5,500 compared to the $6,800 on Alexander Mattison.
D’Andre Swift – Questionable
Swift remains questionable for this Sunday against Atlanta after missing the last few weeks. I would suspect that they still limit him but if you get word that he is 100% cleared to go and with no Jared Goff how does one not love a pass catching RB vs Atlanta?
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The Ambush Plays
Keenan Allen
Big contingency here on if Ekeler is IN or OUT. Because if Ekeler is OUT then thats another 3-4 catches for Keenan Allen and who on gods green earth in the state of Texas is going to cover him effectively? Absolutely nobody is the answer.
JaMarr Chase
The Ravens might try to give a 2 man coverage on Chase this week like they did on Davante Adams, but push come to shove there’s zero chance Burrow doesn’t pepper him heavily. This was the game where I loved Tee Higgins and I expect him to have another high target game, but the Bengals really want to make a statement and that would go through Chase.
Van Jefferson
Don’t sleep on Van Jefferson at all. They ran through Kupp because it was so easy on Tuesday night but Jefferson should be the better Jefferson WR in this game at very low ownership. In many ways Jefferson is just your pivot off of Cooper Kupp as a leverage play because you’ll kinda be in a weird spot without one of them or Darrell Henderson.
The Forgotten Men
Stefon Diggs
Take the Bill Belicheck narrative about removing the best player and throw it out the window. I mentioned how Josh Allen should account for all the offense for Buffalo, well he’s gonna connect with Diggs here to get that done. Gabe Davis who was the chalky stud a week ago is once again in play too.
Courtland Sutton
The best thing about Drew Lock starting is that we might get him rapping on the sideline during the game. The second best thing about Drew Lock starting is that Courtland Sutton is going to get 8 catches for a 100 yards. This is about all that is good about Drew Lock starting.
D.K. Metcalf
Another week where the Bears are heavily depleted in the secondary and another week where we all bite into the DK Metcalf play.
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The Ambush Plays
Cameron Brate
So everyone saw the Bucs get embarrased on Sunday Night Football yet again by New Orleans defense. And we all have seen Leonard Fournette, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans injury situations impact this once vaunted offense leaving the world with Ronald Jones and Tyler Johnson chalk. But while Antonio Brown is going to be coming back and they try to figure out their RB situation we should not overlook what Tom Brady is most comfortable running.
That would be a 2 TE offense. It’s something that I expect Brady to convince the Bucs offensive coaching staff to employ more this week with Gronk, Brate and OJ Howard being involved more against one of the weaker LB groups in red zone coverage in the league.
Carolina is 22nd in recepetions to TE and 16th in touchdowns to TE on the season. To think Brady won’t utilize Gronk-Howard-Brate heavily here would be foolish. So why O.J Howard? Look, I can more than see Gronk doing well but if I want to pay 6k+ for a tight end it’s going to be Andrews or Kelce(*pending covid*).
Brate is the logical or more likely pivot off Gronk since he is on the field more and drawing more targets. But it wouldn’t shock me one bit to see OJ Howard get some more run this week as he fills some of the WR void that is lost.
The Good Chalk
Mark Andrews
The way Huntley was so locked in on getting him the ball quickly last week it’s hard to imagine that doesn’t repeat here. Cincinnati has been decent against the run and while they keep TE out of the end zone they do give up the 25th most yards to them on the season. Mostly because Vonn Bell is a liability in this role.
The Forgotten Men
Kyle Pitts
Detroit simply ranks 30th or worst in every statistical category against TE. That’s all.
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L.A. Chargers
Kansas City Chiefs
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The Week 15 AMBUSH Plays
#1… Josh Allen circles the wagons in a sneaky shootout with the Patriots
#2… David Montgomery fills the void of no Derrick Henry in December and rushes for 150 yards and 3 TD
#3… Van Jefferson out produces Cooper Kupp
#4… Cameron Brate and the Bucs TE is where Tampa/Tom get right.
#5… The Ambush “dont like that” spots …
- Dont like the Jags/Jets, bad teams, no thanks.
- Dont like the Giants/Eagles, low scoring with the Giants covering.
- Either all in or all out on the Chiefs/Steelers, there’s no playing 1 player here. If you roll Najee Harris, run it back with the right Chief based on COVID status.
- Van Jefferson steals the slate for the Rams.
- Bears/Seahawks is the sneaky shootout of the day.
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Question: Who is getting overlooked this week and why is it Kyle Pitts?
It’s Kyle Pitts because the Falcons cannot seem to score touchdowns. But low and behold, its the Lions who are coming in off another big upset win.
Question: Game Stacks of the week are?
Yes, you want to game stack this week
- Bills/Patriots
- Bears/Seahawks
- Steelers/Chiefs
Question: Top Bets
- Broncos ML
- Bills/Patriots OVER 43.5
- Falcons -6.5
- Rams/Vikings UNDER 48.5
- Panthers +10