I had a busy week/weekend with the big College Football Saturday and other items (which capped off our pre-Bowl season very nicely and if you aren’t jumping into CFB then what are you doing? Yes, I know some states can’t play, but damnit — MOVE!). So I didn’t want the Ambush article to be delayed further and posted it last night without the Ambush Final Thoughts knowing I would just do a Sunday morning update.
Well, here we are.
I try to make sure my article is a full concise breakdown each week as best possible without listing 10 quarterbacks, 20 receivers, etc. But I know this week I was even more thin than usual and didn’t identify the final thoughts as I normally should. That said, let me first quick give additional nuggets which I couldn’t add on the live stream that didn’t happen with Geriak this week (due to my conflicts).
Cardinals vs Bears
Nothing additional for me on this game, it’s not one that I am going to be invested in outside of David Montgomery for Chicago who is definitely one of my top RB plays on Draftkings. I can see DeAndre Hopkins getting some welcome back usage here but not enough to warrant using him as James Conner is the main Cardinal. I would not use Arizona’s defense personally.
Colts vs Texans
We got news that Davis Johnson is OUT and Brandin Cooks is IN for Houston. Colts defense still looks decent here and yes Jonathan Taylor is the #1 RB on the slate — he is a much better FanDuel play where locking in 3 RB makes sense this week.
Chargers vs Bengals
No changes, still favorite game on the slate. You can play Ekeler and Mixon here too because RB + QB + WR in a stack in the NFL is all about possessions and touchdowns — two things this game should dominate compared to others and whenever there is good Quarterback play the Running Backs will benefit.
Vikings vs Lions
Nobody is talking about a Lions upset, which is exactly when it will finally happen. Just saying.
Giants vs Dolphins
Contrarian spot for Kenny Golladay, DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki. Lots of love going to the RB here, but I don’t love either.
Eagles vs Jets
This is the primary game I forgot to really get into and one of two Quarterbacks which I just didn’t mention and no it is not Gardner Minshew. I expect Zac Wilson to have one of his finer days at Quarterback in the NFL. Philadelphia has played better statistically on defense but still yields 71% completion rate which is a massive benefit for a rookie QB who is struggling with accuracy like Wilson. We have seen Elijah Moore go on and then off and then on all season long and this is an ON game for him in my mind as he’ll avoid Darius Slay. Sneaky game for some points and I think pairing Moore + Smith OR Goddert on the other side will wind up coming through on DraftKings. I do not like the Eagles ground game at all.
Bucs vs Falcons
Rumors about Antonio Brown being cut when his suspension is over. Allow me to pat myself on the back and say told ya so and enjoy the Scotty Miller/Tyler Johnson game.
Washington vs Raiders
No changes.
Ravens vs Steelers
No changes, Steelers win
Jaguars vs Rams
Game is not on my radar at all for skill position plays.
49ers vs Seahawks
And last but not least. This is the spot I wanted to make sure I came in here and mention.
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Who is getting overlooked this week and why is it Russell Wilson?
Yep, that is the player who once again is getting overlooked. We have to fully admit that Wilson just isn’t going to finish with a dominant statistical season and the Seahawks are more than dead in their playoff push, however the idea that we cannot get one strong Wilson-Metcalf game for this season is not being talked about at all. This entire passing game looked odd against Washington on Monday Night and is completely off the radar for everyone despite having a fantastic matchup against San Francisco.
Look for Wilson to feed the squeeky wheel this week and DK Metcalf to no doubt score. I would bump this game up above the Bucs-Falcons and have it strongly in contention against Washington-Raiders as the #2 game on the slate. The 49ers offense is depleted without their main weapon in Deebo Samuel and I envision a Seattle upset overall.
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QB Final Thoughts
- Burrow / Herbert
- Carr
- Russ Wilson
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RB Final Thoughts
- Taylor (More on FD)
- Montgomery / J.Williams / A. Gibson – All very good prices here on DK
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WR Final Thoughts
- Keenan Allen
- J’Marr Chase
- Renfrow / McLaurin
- DK Metcalf – I would pivot to him instead of messing around with Godwin & Tampa situation
- Elijah Moore / Devonta Smith
- Chase Claypool
- Kenny Golladay
WR Value: Miller/Tyler Johnson
TE Final Thoughts
- CJ Uzomah bumped up to #1 based on price
- Dallas Goeddert
- Foster Moreau
DEFENSE Final Thoughts
Here’s the highest projected ownership on defenses: Miami, Philadelphia, Arizona/Tampa
Sneaky Defense: Pittsburgh
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MY FAVORITE CORES
- Joe Burrow, David Montgomery, Keenan Allen, CJ Uzomah
- Carr, J.Taylor, McLaurin, Renfrow
- R.Wilson, Metcalf, D.Smith, E.Moore
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1PM ONLY GAME STACK
Chargers / Bengals with some Philly/NY Jets
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4PM ONLY GAME STACK
Niners / Seahawks
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BETS
- Steelers Money Line
- Cardinals/Bears UNDER 43
- Jags/Rams UNDER 48
- Lions +7.5
- Seahawks +3.5