I feel this is a much better week to do a break down on only because the games are going to be far more competitive across the board. This is no more evident than the fact that the largest spread is the Packers by 5.5 over the 49ers and that’s the one game I do think winds up turning into a multi-score victory for Green Bay.
Weather is not a big impact, sure it’s gonna be colder than tits on a trans-alien/human monkey in the game in Green Bay, but who cares? We have no wind or rain anywhere. Damnit we need a playoff snowmageddon game one of these days.
Bengals at Titans
Somehow this game does not have the highest total on the board, but make no mistake it has the most upside for a 42-35 type final score. The Bengals love to throw it deep and the Titans love to give up deep passes.
The expected return of Derrick Henry is what everyone will be focused on in this game, however it’s going to be Ryan Tannehill and A.J. Brown (with a full week to finally get right) that I expect to exploit the Bengals over the middle of the field.
Stack this game up, Titans win 41-33.
DFS Targets: Tannehill, Brown, Chase, Westbrook-Ikhine, Mixon, Uzomah
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49ers at Packers
A cold game in Lambeau Field, big deal. The Niners will show up here but likely run out of gas in my mind and so we should be expecting the Packers defense to wind up near the top of our list this weekend. Would a Jimmy G turnover shock anyone? Would the Niners special teams messing up shock anyone? The answer to both should be a resounding no.
Yes, Rodgers will throw 2 touchdowns, but one of them is going to a RB and the other is going to someone not named Davante Adams. The Niners just cannot let that happen.
Packers win 30-13.
DFS Targets: Jones, Dillon, Mitchell, Kittle, Packers DEF
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Bills at Chiefs
Both defenses have righted the ship. The Chiefs were bad early but have been good for the better part of the last half of the season. The Bills have fixed a few things by virtue of their schedule since losing Tre White. That schedule adjustment will be tested here against the Chiefs, who I think will miss having a true RB1 right now in this game.
If the Bills win, it’s Josh Allen accounting for a rushing touchdown. If the Chiefs win it’s Allen having a bad game.
Allen is not having a bad game. Bills win 26-20.
DFS Targets: Allen, Singletary, Davis, Hill
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Rams at Bucs
And last but not least we get the two teams who probably shouldn’t even be here. Tampa through all their recent injuries has drawn a perfect scenario not having to travel after last week and was able to let Leonard Fournette rest up for one more week. They will desperately need him this week but a lot of it should come in the passing game. Tampa is an easy play in DFS because it’s Fournette and Gronk.
The Rams are also an easy play because it’s Kupp, Higbee and Jefferson. This game should finish with both teams in the 20’s but do not be shocked if this too is a nice defensive struggle for a good portion of the game.
The Rams are the better team slightly right now, but Sean McVey will do something dumb and in the end, Tampa wins 27-26.
DFS Targets: Kupp, Fournette, Gronk, Higbee, Jefferson, Stafford
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QUARTERBACK
- Ryan Tannehill
- Josh Allen
- Matt Stafford
For sure I will be riding or dying with the first game out of the gate this weekend. I don’t see much of a path where Tannehill and the Titans win this game without him accounting for 300 yards of offense and 2-3 touchdowns. The temptation to use Henry is going to be strong in DFS and the one vulture he has is Tannehill rushing it in himself. With Brown and Jones and Westbrook-Ikhinne all healthy the Titans are poised to exploit the Bengals secondary and end their magical season.
I won’t have: Tom Brady
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RUNNING BACK
- Aaron Jones / AJ Dillon
- Elijah Mitchell
- Leonard Fournette
- Devin Singletary
No position is harder this weekend because you gotta have the touchdowns here. San Francisco’s rush defense has greatly improved over the course of the season, but in cold conditions on Saturday night and with the Packers defense being rested I see some short fields that can lead to Jones/Dillon doing damage on the ground. Green Bay’s offensive line is the key in this game, and look for them to open holes that nobody expects.
Leonard Fournette is the best PPR play on the slate, that’s how you attack the Rams and he should be cleared for a good amount of volume on Sunday night.
Singletary, Mitchell and even the Chiefs situation are all nice flex options.
I won’t have: Derrick Henry
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WIDE RECEIVER
- A.J. Brown
- Ja’Marr Chase
- Cooper Kupp / Van Jefferson … Very simple approach with the Tampa Bay defense and it’s something the Eagles didn’t even bother doing. Throw it deep. This means Van Jefferson should be back on our radar because we simply do not trust OBJ to perform in a non MNF game. Cooper Kupp needs no explination, he is going to beat Adams in my mind.
- Gabriel Davis … Loooooove Gabe Davis, calling a 37 yard touchdown pass from Allen to Davis here.
- Tee Higgins … Last weeks flop has to have a big game if this one is going to shootout as I suspect.
- Nick Westbrook Ikhine … Love him at $3800 in game stacks of this early game.
Some quick break downs above on the WR position, but no bones about it, Brown and Chase will start things off.
I won’t have: Deebo & Davante
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TIGHT END
- Rob Gronkowski
- George Kittle
- Tyler Higbee
Gronk was banged up in their first meeting, he was a key asset then and should be here again this week while Ramsey locks down on Mike Evans.
I won’t have: Travis Kelce
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DEFENSE
- Packers
- Bills
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AMBUSH CORE
Ryan Tannehill
Aaron Jones
A.J. Brown
Gabriel Davis
Rob Gronkowski
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Game Bets
Bengals/Titans OVER 47.5
Packers -5.5
Bills +1.5
Rams +3