I have a fun game for you to play while reading my article this week.
Stop right now, go grab a drink.
Take a sip every time I reference 28-3.
That’s a sip by the way.
The final week of the regular season is here, which is historically known as the week where you can just treat it like pre-season and throw in a bunch of hail mary lineups, grab something warm to drink and put your feet up on the couch and ponder why you aren’t playing College Hoops DFS more?
For those who are curious about the Playoffs, the strategy will be to do a write-up for the entire weekend of games that breaks down both Sat and Sun as well as Sat-Sun slates. This year there is a Wild Card game on Monday, which is ridiculously stupid in my mind and we’ll have a Showdown article for that if you are still into the Showdown thing.
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Lets break down some of the game theories for this weekend.
Games with the most on the line
San Francisco at LA Rams
- San Francisco will clinch a playoff berth with a victory and with a loss they are at high risk of missing the playoffs.
- LA Rams are playing for the division title AND the #2 seed. Which is significant because its the difference between two home games and two road games — one of which would likely be traveling to Green Bay or Tampa Bay.
- The Niners have won 5 in a row vs the Rams
New Orleans at Atlanta
- If the Saints win and the Rams win, the Saints are in.
- If the Falcons win, lose or tie, they will still be almost 5 years removed from blowing a 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl
- Atlanta won the prior meeting.
NY Jets at Buffalo
- Buffalo wins the AFC East with a win
New England at Miami
- New England wins the AFC East with a win and a Buffalo loss to the Jets.
- New England is not winning the AFC East
Indianapolis at Jacksonville
- The Colts are in with a win. With a loss they have a longshot chance of missing the playoffs.
- The last time the Colts won in Jacksonville the Falcons had not yet blown a 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl
Tennessee at Houston
- Why the fuck do the Titans always play the Texans in week 18? Can’t we get Titans/Colts week 18?
- Titans clinch the #1 seed with a win.
Seattle at Arizona
- Alright so technically Arizona can still win the division if they win and the Rams lose.
- This game is going to be a dud in my mind.
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Games with VERY little on the line
Cincinnati at Cleveland
- Well all of the Bengals have opted out, so they clearly do not care about seeding, nor should they.
Pittsburgh at Baltimore
- There’s some longshot chance of the Steelers making the playoffs still.
- I think it requires something more ridiculous than blowing a 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl
Carolina at Tampa Bay
- Tampa can say that they still have a chance at a higher seed, but … whatever.
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Games that don’t mean jack shit
Chicago at Minnesota
- Aaaaaand Justin Fields is out, so there goes that play.
Green Bay at Detroit
- Means absolutely nothing to either team besides Green Bay wanting the game to get over as quickly as humanly possible.
Washington at NY Giants
- I am honestly not even sure why they are playing this game. Just cancel it out of COVID precautions please.
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Weather Information
Lots of Dome games, nothing much else of significance.
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The Ambush Play
Taysom Hill
Nobody seems to want to point out that Taysom has started only 8 games in his career at QB, going 6-2 in that stretch with losses to the Eagles (’20) and Cowboys (’21). In those 8 starts he has ran the ball 10+ times in 7 of the 8 games, averaging well over 5 yards per attempt and in the two starts against the Falcons last year he had 4 total touchdowns. Heck, dating back to 2019 Taysom has scored 2 touchdowns in three straight games against the Dirty Turds.
Yes he plays like a guy with less than 16 career starts at times and doesn’t quite recognize all the hot reads when an all out blitz comes on third down and yes he will still be off on his timing on the deep throws at times. But from a fantasy stand point, Hill gets the job done when he has a full game to work with and outside of the 4 INT game vs Dallas when he played on a bad foot and had a busted finger early in the game he’s done a decent job of taking care of the football.
With so few games having QB’s in must win scenarios against mediocre defenses we gotta give lots of consideration to Hill throwing for 200 yards, rushing for 50 and scoring 2 touchdowns overall. Lets assume one rushing, one passing and those yardage floors and you have yourself over 20 fantasy points on a week nobody is likely putting up 30.
Also Will Play
Carson Wentz
Everyone’s going to point to Jonathan Taylor against the Jaguars and assume he runs wild on them. I don’t dislike it, but I would also not be shocked if Wentz came out with 2 or more passing touchdowns in a Colts blowout to ensure there is no tom foolery late in this game.
Matt Stafford
I personally believe the way the Rams win this game is through their defense, but in the event that I am wrong it would be wise to have Stafford-Kupp pairings in your builds this week.
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The Ambush Plays
We start off with the good chalk at RB this week because it’s a position where we do not need to mess around much on this slate.
Jonathan Taylor
Over 100 all purpose yards, a few receptions and likely 2 touchdowns (1 rushing, 1 receiving). There’s very little reason for me to get cute and not play Jonathan Taylor this week. Colts will put up 35+ points on the Jaguars and Taylor has to figure into that math somehow.
David Montgomery
With Justin Fields missing this game again we go back to the David Montgomery well for Chicago.
Additional Player Pool
James Conner
Since Arizona will be playing as if they can win the division but possibly going to sleep in the second half we should trust the ground game through Conner and Edmunds more than looking at Kyler to do it all.
Devin Singletary
The Jets rush defense has not been good msot of the season and has been worse really over the last 8 weeks. No reason to not trust the Bills to lean on Singletary over their passing game.
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The Ambush Plays
Michael Pittman
Im absolutely in love with Pittman this weekend. He will score a touchdown and have 80+ yards receiving. The Colts passing game should thrive against the Jaguars just as much as their running game and I can see this being a game where Indianapolis moves the ball between the 20’s on the ground and scores through the air.
AJ Brown
Time for Brown to re-emerge since he gets to face Houston. After a lower scoring game in which the Texans upset the Titans I would run to the bank and put money on Tennessee 1st QTR, 1st Half, 2nd Qtr and 3rd qtr. Dont do the 4th though because they might call the game. AJ Brown will catch a 70 yard touchdown this week and you will enjoy it. Book it.
Cooper Kupp
There are a few milestones that Kupp is chasing this weekend, but at the end of the day they’re simply looking to win and that is enough reason/motivation to have Kupp be the chains mover.
Additional Options
Marquez Callaway
The Falcons have actually done a decent job historically at limiting Alvin Kamara from having ceiling games when they face him and Callaway is going to need Tre’Quan Smith to play to draw some AJ Terrell coverage away from him. But the combination of ATL focusing on Kamara, Taysom’s rushing ability and Terrell possibly on Tre’Quan should lead to Callaway continuing his recent stretch of playing like their true #1 WR. The route options for Callaway have opened up and underneath targets have doubled lately for MC. He should have a shot at a 7 catch, 100 yard game.
Mike Evans
How many times is Brady going to target Evans in the red zone in this game? That’s literally all he is going to do. The problem for Tampa Bay though is at some point they gotta be smart and shut everyone down and just take their one home game as the #4 seed and move on. I get that they just need the Niners to win and they can possibly move up but if things aren’t looking good on the out of town scoreboard than Evans could just die in the second half.
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If you are someone who loves finding a bottom of the barrel Tight End to celebrate a 1 yard touchdown from then my friend this is your week!
The Ambush Play
Dawson Knox
The Jets rank near the bottom in the league against TE and Buffalo will have no problem converting drives into points which means red zone opportunities galore. Knox is the clear cut #1 TE for me on this slate.
Additional Options
George Kittle
Kittle is the key for San Francisco this week. If they have any shot it’s going to be through him.
Harrison Bryant
The Bengals are going to sleep walk through this game and so will the Browns. But not before Harrison Bryant catches a 5 yard touchdown pass.
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Buffalo Bills
If Buffalo cannot shut down the Jets offense at home then they do not deserve to win the AFC East.
LA Rams
The key to beating a Kyle Shannahan offense is to keep your eye on the ball and not get tricked by the miss-direction. If the Rams are going to win this game my belief is that they will do it with their defense blitzing off the edge all game long which will result in multiple sacks, a few turnovers and a stout defensive performance overall.
I can see many pointing to this game as a ‘must win’ scenario so they wind up stacking it only to be left with a defensive performance by the Rams that leads to a 23-10 final score.
New Orleans
It would actually be kind of funny to watch both the “hey stack this game” spots turn into low scoring affairs. But the Saints defense is what is powering them through right now and they have not allowed any deep passing touchdowns practically the entire season. Given the fact that Atlanta won’t have much success on the ground here either it should result in some more sacks and a good defensive performance.