We move back to the mainland this week! Or, as I saw somewhere, we move back “stateside”. Now, last I checked, Hawai’i was a state so I’m not sure that’s technically accurate. But, I’m just being a smartass, I knew what they meant.
The one thing I’ve learned about some of the early-season tournaments is that, some of them, are a little different. One, we see more Pro-Ams – or at least higher profile ones. Two, the two rounds and a cut format – not always the case. Three, one course is not enough to satisfy the tournament sponsors. With this week, we get all three.
The Pro-Am is just a nuisance for these guys in my opinion and it makes it harder to predict how some of these guys will play. With the hackers, some guys will get frustrated and may lose focus. But, there are also guys like Phil Mickelson who I think thrives off of the interaction.
This week will be a 54-hole cut because we are playing not one, not two, but three courses! It’s like a lower level Pebble Beach Pro-Am. The TPC Stadium Course will be played twice for those that make the cut. The other two are PGA West’s Nicklaus Tournament Course and La Quinta Country Club returns. La Quinta was the easiest course on the PGA tour in 2020.
Preferably, we still want 5/6 or 6/6, but 4/6 may cash more easily this week since you’re only missing one round after the cut. I’m getting to the point that providing too many names is confusing (and maybe not that helpful), but I’m also aware that this isn’t a “positional” form of DFS and everyone qualifies for every position. It’s all about price and current form in my opinion. So, this will be an experimental week. I’m going to try the following layout and would love some feedback on Discord:
- Each Thousand Dollar price range, I will give you my Top 2
- “Dew Sweepers” (since we now have a name – thanks “x-iamlegend_x”) – two contrarian picks that I think will be low owned…or I just have a gut feeling on.
- I will give at least one “longshot” in the final price range – no Dew Sweepers.
- Two “Cores”
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$9,000 and Above
To me, this range is the toughest to pick from. Usually in lower ranges, you find the underpriced guy with great skills (mostly the new guys) or the guy that’s been struggling and his game is turning around faster than his price is going up (Matta Kuchar last week).
- Patrick Cantlay ($10,900) – His game is well-rounded right now and finished 4th at the TOC after a long layoff.
- Jon Rahm ($11,300) – Typically, I hate using the top-priced player since anything short of a Top 10 usually is disappointing. However, with a guaranteed three rounds and Rahmbo’s ability to score points, this week is ok.
Dew Sweepers:
- Matthew Wolff ($9,300) – his mental game is back
- Abraham Ancer ($9,200) – yes, he missed the cut last week which I think will limit ownership. However, he has played well in this tournament format.
NOTE: I do like Talor Gooch & Corey Connors, but they are playing so well that I think their price has gotten too high.
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$8,000 to $8,900
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($8,700) – Not sure how he will be in this format, but his play has been so consistent that I don’t think moving from course to course will bother his game much.
- Justin Rose ($8,600) – I’m not sure what the pricing is here. Rose has made 8 out of his last 8 cuts with 3 Top 10s.
Dew Sweepers:
- Patrick Reed ($8,800) – again, like Rose, I must be missing some Vegas-thing on the pricing. When your average “per golfer” is $8,333, you can get all three of these guys and still not have to drop below $7,500 for your last 3.
- Rickie Fowler ($8,500) – yes, I know, Rickie? He’s made his last three cuts an has too much talent to just “go away”. Is he in a Jordan Spieth funk? I think that is it and we saw what Jordan did after he broke out of it. I think Rickie has at least cracked the glass in that box he’s in.
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$7,000 to $7,900
- Adam Hadwin ($7,900) – Here’s a guy that I would not hesitate on in the past…especially at this price. I’m going back. He’s made 5 of his last 6 cuts and his history at this tournament is T32-DNP-T2-T3-T2-T6-T48. That’s pretty good!
- Russell Knox ($7,800) – I’m going with another player in this range who has played well in this format with a T16-T37-T18-T29 in his last four trips. A T7 last week also gives me hope that his form is good this early in the season.
Dew Sweepers:
- Hayden Buckley ($7,200) – Who? Exactly! Fresh off the Korn Ferry Tour, he’s made 4 of his first 6 cuts (3 Top 15s) on the PGA Tour and finished T12 last week.
- Taylor Moore ($7,300) – I’m a sucker for the new guys that are priced low that have a shit-load of potential. 3 of 5 in cuts made after graduating from KFT. All three are Top 25.
- Jason Day ($7,300) – can we really ignore him at this price? Maybe, but I feel obligated to point it out. He’s made 2 of last 3 cuts, but his play isn’t anywhere near his abilities.
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$7,000 and Under
- Brandt Snedeker ($6,900) – it’s so unusual to see a well-known player priced so low. It’s really because the young guns are so good and he really hasn’t played well. But, the putter is always there and if he makes putts, we have a BINGO! on value. He also played relatively well last week.
- Wyndham Clark ($6,900) – this guy is a high ceiling guy. He has played much better in recent months and could give you high points at a low cost. Especially with three rounds guaranteed, the potential low floor isn’t quite as low.
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LONGSHOTS:
- Rory Sabbatini ($6,900) – he’s playing like dog shit right now! Historically, he makes cuts at this tournament and his game can turn on at any time.
- Wesley Bryan ($6,600) – Alex White, who I used to write with on SI, used to love to give me a wrath of shit every time I mentioned this guy’s name. He’s a trick shot artist! He was on Big Break! All correct! However, he can rack up the points when his game is on and he did pretty good in Hawai’i! If you are going a little top-heavy this week, Bryan gives you a ton of salary relief without a huge loss in scoring.
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No more fades! I’m going with the positive. Here are two potential “Cores” to build with:
CORE #1 (top heavy):
Jon Rahm
Matthew Wolff
H. Lee (you have to go lower after that start)
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CORE #2 (balanced):
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Justin Rose
Patrick Reed
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TOP 10 using the model I utilize with 50% Current Form/ 25% Key Stats / 25% Course History:
- Patrick Cantlay
- Jon Rahm
- Talor Gooch
- Sungjae Im
- Tony Finau
- Scottie Scheffler
- Abraham Ancer
- Matthew Wolff
- Seamus Power
- Justin Rose
As you see, there are many guys in the Top 10 that I didn’t mention above. They are all in play if you wish to use them, they just aren’t my favorites. Will I be wrong? Hell, yes! Golf is not that predictable of a DFS sport. Mainly though, I like to add this for those of you that like to rely on the “statistical approach” when your gut makes you choose between two players.
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GOOD LUCK!!