Farmers Insurance Open

Week two in California! I hope you all had some success last week. Unless I miscalculated, we had 11 of the 15 names (excluding the Longshots) make the 3-day cut. Some of those guys missing it may have made a two-day cut because a few guys climbed the leaderboard on Saturday due to playing the easiest course, La Quinta CC.

So, that oddity is behind us now…or is it? This week is a little strange, but not near as bad. No offense to our readers in California or any of my friends there but one thing I was told in law school was, if a law seems odd or lacking common sense, it probably came from one of two Circuits. And, yes, California is one of those two! It seems to have spread to the PGA when it plays within the boarders of Cali!

This week is only slightly strange. We have a two-day cut, but each player will play two different courses once each during the Thursday-Friday rounds. Wait, oh shit, let’s screw with it more! This week’s tournament is Wednesday – Saturday instead. Why? Everyone will be watching NFL on Sunday – especially after last weekend! Wow!

Everyone will play Torrey Pines – North and Torrey Pines – South. The North Course typically plays much easier so don’t be overly disappointed after Wednesday if you fall behind and your guys were mostly on the South Course. The South Course is used for the final two rounds. If you play Showdowns, stacking the North Course is an easy way gain a little advantage.

As I said last week, PGA isn’t a “positional” form of DFS and everyone qualifies for every position. It’s all about price and current form in my opinion. Like last week, the format will be:

Each Thousand Dollar price range, I will give you my Top 2
“Dew Sweepers” – two contrarian picks that I think will be low owned…or I just have a gut feeling on.
At least one “longshot” in the final price range – no Dew Sweepers.
Two “Cores”
Top 10 in my statistical model for those of you wanting stats

$9,000 and Above

This is land of the “disappointments waiting to happen”! Why? All of these guys seem like the obvious picks. Most of the time several of these guys are there on Sunday. But, it always ends up that one, or two, or three of these guys miss the cut or barely make it and that means your lineup – unless you hit on the low-end guys – will be disappointing. So, my goal here isn’t to always pick the most obvious. Like the $7K category, we need a cut-maker.

Xander Schauffele ($10,100) – This is one of my favorite plays for 2022. He missed cuts here early on, but has righted himself in his last two attempts. T2 here last year and T7 when the US Open was here. He doesn’t really have a weakness in his game so the difference in the playability of the courses doesn’t worry me
Hideki Matsuyama ($10,600) – The only thing that worries me a little about Hideki is that, although he’s made his last 5 cuts in this tournament, he hasn’t been inside the Top 40 since 2019. However, he’s won 2 of his last 3 starts.

Dew Sweepers:

Will Zalatoris ($9,200) – Given all the big names, he may run a little under the radar this week. I honestly have no issue with starting with him and using guys below this price to fill out your lineups.
Daniel Berger ($10,000) – much like Zalatoris, I expect him to be a little light on ownership this week. The $10K price is what I think will do that. That, and the fact that he hasn’t made a cut here since 2015. But, he hasn’t played here since 2019 and I think his game is more well-rounded now.
NOTE: Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas and all the other guys above $9K are in play for lineups this week. But, unless you’re playing 20 lineups, you have to take a stand and pick one or two. To give you a couple more, Sam Burns and Scottie Scheffler intrigue me…a lot!

$8,000 to $8,900

Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($8,300) – You’ve heard the Old West logic of “ride the horse until it drops”? At $8,300 I think this is an underpriced horse who will make the cut. He’s averaging over 90 Fantasy Points in his last two starts and 10x is always good!
Patrick Reed ($8,700) – Much like Xander, Reed’s game travels well…and, he won here last year. Plus, he hasn’t been worse than 23rd in his last four starts here.

Dew Sweepers:

Talor Gooch ($8,900) – I think the missed cut last week will lower his ownership and his history here is good. Good, not great! He does have a T3 in 2019. I really wish his price had dropped a little more.
Max Homa ($8,400) – “West Coast Homa”! That is all!

$7,000 to $7,900

Justin Rose ($7,900) – As long as DraftKings is willing to give me Justin Rose below $8K, I think I will just say “thank you” and move on with my day!
Brandt Snedeker ($7,400) – I pointed him out in the Under $7k crowd last week and he did not disappoint! If that putter is working… oh boy! Plus, tournament history?

T32

T62

T45

WIN

T19

WIN

I know, the wins were a while ago. But the T3 and T9 were not! And, his recent performance is reminiscent of his previous play. He’s capable of a Top 10 – as is Rose – for under $8K. That’s relevant!

Dew Sweepers:

Mito Pereira ($7,400) – As I said above, “Dew Sweepers” can be “gut plays”! I’m not sure what it is about this guy that I like so much. Is it because he just seems cool or I just like to say “Mito”? Of course not! He’s a hell of a player but has some risk. Risk at $7,400 is a lot better than risk at $10K…and, oh yeah, there is risk there too!
Francesco Molinari ($7,600) – I’ll be honest! I really thought about mentioning him and playing him last week. Of course, I didn’t and he finished T6. He had missed his two previous cuts and wasn’t playing like the Major winner he was. But, I should have gone with my gut last week and didn’t.

$7,000 and Under

Vincent Whaley ($6,800) – I’ve been playing this guy in one lineup almost every week. He’s not the best-known name but has made 13/14 cuts and, at this price, that’s all you want!
Doug Ghim ($7,000) – Again, 7/8 cuts made. Lots of talent, but still getting his feet wet on Tour.

LONGSHOT:

Paul Barjon ($6,400) – this guy has been primarily a player on the European and Korn Ferry Tours. He graduated to the PGA Tour this year and has been playing since September. He’s made the cut in 4 of his 6 attempts and had a 10th place finish last week after posting a weak 73 on Sunday. Risk vs. Reward! But, if you want to top-load, he’s a salary saver.

No more fades! I’m going with the positive. Here are two potential “Cores” to build with:

CORE #1 (top heavy):

Xander Schauffele

Will Zalatoris

Scottie Scheffler

(Leaves you $7,000 per golfer)

CORE #2 (balanced):

Sam Burns

Marc Leishman

Patrick Reed

(Leaves you $7,500 per golfer)

TOP 10 using the model I utilize with 50% Current Form/ 25% Key Stats / 25% Course History:

Jon Rahm
Sam Burns
Hideki Matsuyama
Sungjae Im
Xander Schauffele
Tony Finau
Ryan Palmer
Marc Leishman
Talor Gooch
Justin Thomas

As you see, there are many guys in the Top 10 that I didn’t mention above. Patrick Reed comes in a #11. They are all in play if you wish to use them, they just aren’t my favorites. Will I be wrong? Hell, yes! Golf is not that predictable of a DFS sport. Mainly though, I like to add this for those of you that like to rely on the “statistical approach” when your gut makes you choose between two players.

GOOD LUCK!!

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