We stay in Hawai’i this week! We simply switch islands from Maui to Hawai’i! Waialae CC is NOT Kapalua! Accuracy is a premium – Distance is not! “Bomb and gauge” may work but is not the desired approach.
Last week was pretty successful as far as picks go, but I always hate the no-cut aspect of events because it allows for anyone to jump over you on the weekend because it’s 6 vs. 6. For instance, I was winning $11K on Saturday but I didn’t have Matt Jones. What’s the point in that statement? Well, he shot 62-61 on the weekend and VAULTED past most of the players for a 3rd place finish. Let’s just say I still won, but nowhere near $11K.
So, now we are back at the more traditional approach and we need to do our best to get 6/6 or 5/6 to have a good sweat over the weekend. I’ve seen it with 4/6 but that’s usually if most of the Top 10 percentage-owned guys shit the bed!
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$10,000 and Above
- Cam Smith ($11,200) – I mention him because he is playing LIGHTS OUT right now, but, personally, I will likely not play him because he’s priced that way. That and back-to-back wins aren’t that common. ($8,300 last week and now $11,200 – see my hesitation?)
- Marc Leishman ($10,000) – He’s played here a lot! He’s made every cut since 2013 with 4 Top 10s. I also like Aussie’s when there is potential for wind.
- Sungjae Im ($10,300) – He’s a little higher priced than Leishman but there aren’t many guys striking the ball better right now than Sungjae. 3 Top 10s in his last 4 events doesn’t hurt either.
I’m going to change up the pricing categories for a while since few guys are being priced between $9,000 and $9,900. I use to make it $9K and above, but getting guys into a DraftKings lineup above $10K isn’t as easy as it sounds…without compromising somewhere.
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$8,500 to $9,900
- Kevin Kisner ($8,900) – I’m not sure when the last time was that I recommended Kiz. This shorter style course fits his lack of length and superb accuracy. Now, he hasn’t played that well, but seemed to be in decent form last week. He also has good course history here.
- Corey Connors ($9,600) or Talor Gooch ($9,100) – I like both of these guys this week, but I’m listing them together since it may be hard for me to differentiate. I like Gooch for the same reasons I said I liked him last week and I like Connors as a player in general. I think I’m favoring Gooch here for one reason – he played last week. Huh? I’ve been to Hawai’i and it’s beautiful! But, going there from the East Coast (or West Coast for that matter) isn’t the easiest thing to do. Gooch has had more time to adjust to the time change.
- Abraham Ancer ($9,700) – I love this guy’s game. I expected a lot better performance than he had last week. I think he is just pissed enough at his T35 last week to come out and play well this week.
- If I were to pick Kevin Na ($9,900), he’d withdraw…so take that for what it’s worth.
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$7,500 to $8,400
- Matt Jones ($8,400) – It may be the missed 5-figure payday talking, but his guy played well last week and, as I said, I do like Aussie’s if the wind blows.
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,800) – He hasn’t played for a while and has no history here, but I’ve always liked him as a cut-maker. At this price, I’ll risk the layoff rust.
- Brendan Steele ($7,900) or Charles Howell III ($8,000) – Steele’s course history is T4 and 2nd. CH3 hasn’t missed a cut in his last 10 trips here and his worst finish is T32.
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$7,400 and Under
- Patton Kizzire ($7,300)
- Adam Long ($7,300) – Hasn’t played since November but his last 4 events were Top 25s. At this price, you’re getting 10x or better return
- Emiliano Grillo ($7,300) – Been a bit inconsistent but this course should fit his game.
- Hudson Swafford ($6,800) – Four Top 15s in eight starts here with one missed cut.
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LONGSHOTS: Matt Kuchar ($7,500) and Stewart Cink ($7,200) – Kuchar showing signs of life again. Cink hasn’t played great since his Harbour Town win (similar course) but seems to play well here and did play last week.
No more fades! I’m going with the positive. Here are two potential “Cores” to build with:
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CORE #1:
Marc Leishman
Talor Gooch
Russell Henley
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CORE #2:
Hideki Matsuyama
Abraham Ancer
Adam Long
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TOP 10 using the model I utilize with 50% Current Form/ 25% Key Stats / 25% Course History:
- Cameron Smith
- Webb Simpson
- Sungjae Im
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Marc Leishman
- CH3
- Matt Jones
- Kevin Na
- Jason Kokrak
- Billy Horschel
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GOOD LUCK!!