Staying in California again! If we can get enough unmasked politicians and celebrities at this event, maybe we can start a Twitter controversy in golf too!
We are back to the three-pronged cluster again! Three courses, Saturday cut, and annoying hackers slowing down our DFS plays of the week.
Everyone will play Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill and Monterey Peninsula in some combination between Thursday and Saturday. Like a couple of weeks ago, if you play Showdowns, Monterey has historically played the easiest. None of the courses are exceedingly long (the longest is just over 7,000 yards), but weather can, and usually does, play a factor. Spyglass Hill is the most protected from the elements because it does not sit directly on the coast. So, another Showdown approach if the wind is kicking? Pick guys playing Spyglass that day.
Much like the American Express, we can be a more aggressive in our plays this week since, barring an injury, each guy will get a guaranteed three rounds this week. I love it and I hate it, but mainly I love it when my $7K guys makes the three-day cut. (Matt Kuchar this week!)
Remember, PGA isn’t a “positional” form of DFS and everyone qualifies for every position. It’s all about price and current form in my opinion. Like last week, the format will be:
- Each Thousand Dollar price range, I will give you my Top 2
- “Dew Sweepers” – two contrarian picks that I think will be low owned…or I just have a gut feeling on.
- At least one “longshot” in the final price range – no Dew Sweepers.
- Two “Cores”
- Top 10 in my statistical model for those of you wanting stats
$9,000 and Above
Just like the long bunker shot, this category is the hardest shot it Golf – DFS that is! You know you should play someone in here, but you also know you need five more players and playing caddies and club professionals usually won’t have a good effect on the bankroll! The names in here are great and many have excellent track records here. I mean:
| Patrick Cantlay | T3 | T11 | DNP | T35 | T48 |
| Daniel Berger | Win | T5 | DNP | DNP | DNP |
| Jordan Spieth | T3 | T9 | T45 | T20 | Win |
| Jason Day | T7 | 4th | T4 | T2 | T5 |
That’s without considering Will Zalatoris has only played here twice (once as PGA tour member) and is on fire currently. (Alert! Alert! – COVID Withdrawal). Maverick McNealy has two top 5s in his last two appearances. Seamus Power is playing fantastic right now. What do we do? Pick a spot and stick to it or go for a balanced lineup and ignore the top tier! Yes, it is that simple! There is no right or wrong methodology in PGA DFS until about 6:30 p.m. on Sunday.
- Patrick Cantlay ($11,200) – I simply cannot ignore the way he is playing right now. My only concern, and it’s very small, is that he took a week off. Normally, I try to avoid the highest-priced guys because if they miss the cut, you’re usually DOA. But, with three guaranteed rounds, I like my odds.
- Daniel Berger ($10,500) – With Will Zalatoris being forced to COVID-Withdraw, I’m going with Berger who now is the 2nd highest-priced player. Why am I recommending the top 2 priced guys when I normally don’t? The 3-round guarantee! That’s why!
- Dew Sweepers:
- Jason Day ($9,900) – I really think he is a sleeper (Or “sweeper”) this week. Much like Spieth when he was in his slump, I couldn’t take a chance on J-Day until he showed some positive gains. After a T3 last week, his tournament history gives me hope.
| T7 | 4th | T4 | T2 | T5 | T11 | T4 | MC | 6th | DNP |
- Seamus Power ($9,400) – this is a wild card. He’s missed two cuts here in four appearances, but his recent play is quite good. T14-T3-T15!
- Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,200) – With Zalatoris dropping, I’ll add a third Dew Sweeper. Low end of the price range for a top-tier player with 3 Top 15s in his last 5 events – including a Euro Tour win and a T2.
NOTE: Spieth and Rose are all in play too! If only we had a $70,000 salary cap! Maverick McNealy may not be a bad play either but $9,800 seems a bit pricey to me.
$8,000 to $8,900
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($8,700) – Last week I said, “You’ve heard the Old West logic of ‘ride the horse until it drops’?” Well, it stumbled, but it didn’t drop last week! This range also has a limited number of players in it this week.
- Mito Pereira ($8,300) – No experience in this tournament, but I like his game and he did finish T25 last week. Again, with the 3 rounds guaranteed, I’m expecting points.
Dew Sweepers:
- Lanto Griffin ($8,800) – He has a T9 here in 2020 and seems to have righted the ship a little in 2022 with a T30 and a T3. The pricing seems a little high to me, but there are limited choices and he may be lower-owned.
- Brian Harman ($8,600) – Why is it that a lefty’s swing always looks so smooth? I’m talking baseball and golf here. Harman is coming off a T3 a couple of weeks ago at the AmEx so the format doesn’t appear to bother him.
$7,000 to $7,900
So, since Justin Rose’s price went from $7,900 last week to $9,600 this week, the damn DraftKings algorithm has kicked my “lock” in this price range right in the crotch!
- Michael Thompson ($7,900) – Right now, of all the guys in this price range, Thompson is playing the best. He missed the cut in at the AmEx a couple of weeks ago in a similar format, but played/scored horribly. Last week, he looked much better. Hot hands are important in this price range.
- Matt Kuchar ($7,600) – Lose Justin Rose, insert Matt Kuchar! I can’t not play guys like this at this price level. It’s insane when they aren’t playing poorly and Kuch is 5 out of 5 in making cuts in his last 5 events.
Dew Sweepers:
- Troy Merritt ($7,200) – Tournament history play.
- Nick Taylor ($7,300) – He has an excellent history here and is playing well with a T30 and a T33 in his last two events, including AmEx. A win here in 2020 shows a potential for a big return at a very low price.
$7,000 and Under
- Wyndham Clark ($7,000) – At this price, he can definitely play well enough to put a smile on your face. He finished 13th at the AmEx. If you haven’t noticed, I like when guys have played well in this format. Moving from course-to-course over a three-day period doesn’t make it as easy.
- Austin Eckroat ($6,800) – He could have easily been my longshot. This kid has a lot of potential but hasn’t really shown it.
LONGSHOT:
- Paul Barjon ($6,600) – I’m going back to the well! He really sucked last week! He’s volatile and tends to go off the rails and miss cuts. However, he did finish 10th at AmEx so maybe he can get it back together. Risk vs. Reward!
No more fades! I’m going with the positive. Here are two potential “Cores” to build with:
CORE #1 (top heavy):
Patrick Cantlay
Justin Rose
Matt Kuchar
(Leaves you $7,200 per golfer)
CORE #2 (balanced):
Seamus Power
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Michael Thompson
(Leaves you $8,000 per golfer)
TOP 10 using the model I utilize with 50% Current Form/ 25% Key Stats / 25% Course History:
- Patrick Cantlay
- Daniel Berger
- Cameron Tringale (who I didn’t mention but like)
- Jordan Spieth
- Maverick McNealy (justify the price?)
- Will Zalatoris
- Kevin Kisner (distance isn’t a priority so he’s in play)
- Lanto Griffin
- Justin Rose
- Matt Kuchar
As you see, there are many guys in the Top 10 that I didn’t mention above. Jason Day and Mito Pereria are #11 and #12. Golf is not that predictable of a DFS sport. Mainly though, I like to add this for those of you that like to rely on the “statistical approach” when your gut makes you choose between two players.
GOOD LUCK!!