With apologies to all the readers in California (look at me thinking I have readers), thank God we are leaving and heading a little further east! If for no other reason, I’m thankful because the “gimmick” tournaments are done and we can focus on ONE COURSE for an entire tournament.
This is one of my favorite tournaments. The field in usually high quality, but this year we have more than half of the Top 30 players in the world playing. For pure watching pleasure, that’s great! For DFS, the conundrum continues due to that damn salary cap!
Hopefully some of you profited last week. A quick review of the article showed me a lot of guys that finished well. Yeah, Matt Kuchar decided he didn’t want to play on Sunday. However, Seamus Power, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Jason Day (until Sunday), and many other plays did well. The Troy Merritt and Nick Taylor calls should have helped you get some stars in your lineup if you used them.
To me, those calls are more important than the ones we make at $9,000 and up. With the higher-priced guys, it’s a matter of picking someone that finishes Top 10 or Top 15 because they need to do that for value. Troy Merritt’s 4th place finish at $7,200 is a contest winner in some cases – especially in weeks with a normal cut.
Remember, PGA isn’t a “positional” form of DFS and everyone qualifies for every position. It’s all about price and current form in my opinion. Like last week, the format will be:
- Each Thousand Dollar price range, I will give you my Top 2
- “Dew Sweepers” – two contrarian picks that I think will be low owned…or I just have a gut feeling on.
- At least one “longshot” in the final price range – no Dew Sweepers.
- Two “Cores”
- Top 10 in my statistical model for those of you wanting stats
$9,000 and Above
Here we go again with a loaded top bracket/range. Only two guys – Patrick Cantlay and Viktor Hovland – have little on no (or should I say “know”) experience with this tournament or course.
Hole #16 is an experience in and of itself! You enter the Colosseum to face the lions on a short par 3. In this case, the “lions” are tens of thousands of “highly lubricated” fans just waiting to cheer you if you hit the green, embrace you if you get it close, or pounce if you miss the green completely! Damn it’s fun!
This course if full of a lot of risk/reward holes and the last three can and will result in an exciting finish. The Par 3 Colosseum hole, followed by a drivable Par 4 with water on the entire left side of the green and the church pew Par 4 18th will keep the leaders focused. The Par 5 15th is a good setup to this finish as well.
So, who do we go with this week? As I said last week, pick a spot and stick to it or go for a balanced lineup and ignore the top tier! There is no right or wrong methodology in PGA DFS until about 6:30 p.m. on Sunday.
In the guys above $9,000, since 2012 we have the following:
- Four Wins
- Twenty-one Top 10s (excluding the Wins)
- Fifteen Top 20s (excluding Wins and Top 10s)
- Eleven missed cuts
Those numbers also show a lot of experience outside of Hovland and Cantlay. Cantlay has never played this tournament and Hovland missed the cut in 2020. Does that bother me? NOT IN THE LEAST!
- Hideki Matsuyama ($10,400) – I’m picking my spots! I love Jon Rahm in this tournament but I also like saving $1,200 for Hideki. Hideki has finished outside the Top 20 one time in his 8 trips here (and also has a WD). He has two wins as well.
- Justin Thomas ($11,000) – I’m up in the air with him or Rahm. JT struggled on this course early on in his career, but since missing the cut in 2017, he’s gone T17-3rd-T3-T13 from 2018 to 2021. Just slightly better than Rhambo in the same time frame.
- Dew Sweepers:
- Viktor Hovland ($10,200) – He’s now one of the Top 3 in the world! He has a win and a T4 in his last two events. He has the game to win on this course and is riding a high right now with his play.
- Xander Schauffele ($9,700) – any time I can get X for under five figures, I’ll consider it. He’s played here four times and has four Top 20s (including a T2 and a 10th place finish).
- Bubba Watson ($9,000) – three Dew Sweepers seemed to work last week since there is always a possibility that one of our picks falls out because of COVID. Bubba is a wild card because he hasn’t played much, but in last 10 years here, he has 7 Top 20s (including FIVE Top 5s). In this bracket, he’s also the cheapest!
NOTE: I will say this with conviction. I love the first four I named above but I cannot and will not rule out anyone in this price range IF you can fit them into a lineup and not have to feel like you are filling your remaining lineup with high school golfers that have no chance. Daniel Berger ($9,200) worries me because of the back, but that’s it!
$8,000 to $8,900
- Matthew Fitzpatrick ($8,700) – I liked him last week at $9,200. I have no reason not to like him at $8,700. He also has no tournament history but I haven’t really seen him play a course where he can’t adapt. Remember, these guys get practice rounds.
- Webb Simpson ($8,600) – You just don’t see Webb with this price tag too often. I’m sure it’s because he hasn’t played much yet this year, but he’s made 8 of 9 cuts here in the last 10 years including a win in 2020. So, as long as the game is sharp, he will be fine.
Dew Sweepers:
- Adam Scott ($8,500) – No history, but he does have two top 10s in his last two events. Again, a price you don’t see him at too often. He’s no longer the “young gun” but he can absolutely play with the five-figure guys any day of the week.
- Seamus Power ($8,400) – There aren’t many players out there on Tour right now that are playing as well as Seamus (pronounced “Sh-amus”) right now that has played as many events as he has. Four Top 15s in his last four!
Public Service Announcement: Louis Oosthuizen ($8,800) is one of my favorite players to watch. However, if I play Louis, he likes to withdraw for some reason. Must be something I did to him in a previous life. So, if you want, I’m not playing him this week.
$7,000 to $7,900
This is the price range, to me, where GPPs are won and lost. It’s also the most nerve-racking range. These guys are all good, but someone has to miss the cut…and it’s usually a lot of these guys. But, you need them so:
- Billy Horschel ($7,900) – Billy Ho! Not a lot of flash but plenty of game! He’s made every cut here since 2015 and has two Top 25s in his first three events this season.
- Matt Kuchar ($7,400) – I’ll go back to the well! He has made the last 5 cuts here and had 3 Top 10s in those 5 years. He didn’t play horribly last week. He just didn’t make the cut.
Dew Sweepers:
- Andrew Putnam ($7,500) – He finished T7 last year and is coming off a T6 last week at Pebble. This is a gut call! I think he continues playing well!
- Luke List ($7,700) – There aren’t many striking the ball better than Luke right now. This is a ball striker’s course! Fairways are narrow and rough isn’t punishing. However, the desert area can be cruel. Especially if you end up leaning into a cactus to hit a shot!
$7,000 and Under
- Troy Merritt ($7,000) – He’s cheaper than last week and it paid off with a 4th place finish! At this price, making the cut is value and he’s playing much better than that.
- Francesco Molinari ($7,000) – He is no longer the “major winner” threat. However, he is playing much better. He’s had limited success here because he hasn’t played here much. He’s made both cuts when he’s entered and finished T22 in 2015.
LONGSHOT:
- Martin Laird ($6,800) – Until last year, he had a run of 7 made cuts in a row at the Phoenix Open. That included 3 Top 10s. The 16th hole is a party! They don’t call him “Party Marty” for nothing! I look for him to get back to form here! I think the potential reward outweighs the $6,800 risk.
No more fades! I’m going with the positive. Here are two potential “Cores” to build with:
Pricing is NOT HORRIBLE this week and there are a lot of ways to configure a lineup build with popular names. If you are playing Cash Games, that’s fine. If you are in GPPs, find those guys in the $7,500 to $8,500 range that may be lesser owned.
CORE #1 (top heavy):
Viktor Hovland
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Billy Horschel
(Leaves you $7,700 per golfer)
CORE #2 (balanced):
Jordan Spieth
Luke List
Webb Simpson
(Leaves you $8,000 per golfer)
TOP 10 using the model I utilize with 50% Current Form/ 25% Key Stats / 25% Course History:
- Jon Rahm
- Justin Thomas
- Xander Schauffele
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Patrick Cantlay
- Daniel Berger
- Webb Simpson
- Jordan Spieth
- Russell Henley
- Scottie Scheffler
Fitzpatrick is #11, Horschel is #12 and List is #13. Horschel and List are both under $8K.
GOOD LUCK!!