As one would kind of expect we are getting some good teams on the slate today and then we have the Indiana Hoosiers at 11:30 am. They made a miracle come back in the second half yesterday to bail out one of our bets and now get the Illini in what should be one of two really good Big 10 games early today.
I decided to scrap the write up I had here and change the break down for this slate because what I had layed out to me was not going to be able to help you quickly build a lineup or approach for the early 5 game slate.
Here is the most notable nugget on this early slate that we have to determine and it’s a potential punt value play from Arkansas due to Audiese Toney being OUT (Likely).
AuDiese Toney’s Replacement … Chris Lykes (3400) or Trey Wade (3200)
Arkansas rarely uses a deep bench and with Toney likely OUT for this game there are a couple options who could come in and see big minutes in a high tempo game and all are near min price. The options are between Trey Wade and Chris Lykes with Davonte Davis ($4800) being another player who will see high minutes. Chris Lykes had a strong game vs Tennessee with Toney out and is someone I think can really excel in this type of game. If he does get the start he is our lock in, but we will want to monitor this status and decide from there. Wade is 3200 and Lykes is 3400, so build your dummy lineup with Lykes.
Chris Lykes – Guard – 3400 and Trey Wade – Forward – Arkansas – 3200 … The Razorbacks are without Audiese Toney and they only play five guys usually, so whichever one of these two slides in for the start is of consideration with this likely being a REALLY fast tempo game.
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Now lets cover the potential top 2 players from each team
Indiana vs Illinois
I like this game the least of the five today which is contrarian in my opinion. But it’s an early 11:30 am start and you have Indiana who likely survived yesterday with their big comeback over Michigan. There is potential for foul trouble with the bigs in this game and certainly some value on the Illinois Guards but at this point I am done chasing the art of the possible with them.
Full Fade on this game for me.
Texas A&M vs Auburn
This is one of my 3 favorites and overall I rank it tied for 2nd with the other SEC game.
The Aggies remain desperate and dangerous while the Auburn Tigers are probably gonna come out just to have fun today. That might sound stupid but trust me, Auburn isn’t going to play stout defense today like their ranking suggests they should
- Texas A&M – Tyrece Radford, Henry Coleman
- Auburn – KD Johnson, Jabari Smith
Cincinnati vs Houston
Meh. Houston is overpriced and Cincinnati is very boom or bust with more bust potential. That said, Houston does give up a high % on three’s and Jeremiah Davenport and David DeJulius both stand out as high Onions! plays today. If Houston comes out sleep walking on defense then the Bearcats can cover with a hot shooting day. I doubt that happens though as I think Houston is locked in to make a statement.
- Cincy: Jeremiah Davenport, David DeJulius
- Houston: Josh Carlton
LSU vs Arkansas
This is a fast tempo game on paper but one in which I would caution it not going to the moon like everyone might suspect. That makes a couple of the pay up studs hard to jam in so Brandon Murray, Xavier Pinson and Stanley Umude most likely return the best value here.
- LSU: Xavier Pinson and Brandon Murray
- Arkansas: Stanley Umude, JD Notae and Value replacement for Toney if he is confirmed out.
Iowa vs Rutgers
This is the game that I rank number one but it’s by a narrow margin. Rutgers shut down Iowa in their prior meeting and many will signal that as a reason to fade the Iowa players after a great game yesterday. Not me, I think they are hot and will shoot extremely well today.
For Iowa it will come down to Murray carrying them or balanced production with Tony Perkins and Jordan Bohannon being the two guys who can give us 5x.
The way the pricing works out, Geo Baker finds himself as the most optimal play from Rutgers but I really expect Clifford Omoruyi to have a 28+ FPT game today.
- Iowa: Keegan Murray … OR BOTH Tony Perkins & Jordan Bohannon
- Rutgers: Clifford Omoruyi, Geo Baker
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The Onions! play is my favorite play on the slate to have a 6x or better game.
Tyrece Radford – Guard – Texas A&M – 6400
Radford is going to be a problem for the Tigers. I don’t think they have someone who can really match him defensively and the way he contributes with rebounds and assists he should fill up the stat sheet in this tempo jump today.
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CORE PLAYS
To me there are two approaches today.
Stars and Scrubs: Keegan Murray, Chris Lykes (*), Tyrece Radford, KD Johnson
Balanced: Tyrece Radford, KD Johnson, Xavier Pinson, Stanley Umude
Of course you could just combine those two together and have a reasonable lineup.
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TOP BETS
Indiana/Illinois UNDER 137.5
Texas A&M +9.5
Iowa/Rutgers OVER 144.5
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Remember to work with The Dashboard to build your lineups.