The Players
Damn that was brutal! I don’t recall seeing so many top-notch professional golfers shoot so far over par in a round outside of a Major. For DFS purposes, I hate to see guys essentially “give up” in the middle of a round. However, having been there in an amateur sense, I understand the desire to get to the 19th Hole in the middle of a round simply because, well, it’s just miserable out there.
Now on to the last stop in the Florida Swing and it’s a great one! The Players at TPC Sawgrass! This is the “Fifth Major”! From a yardage standpoint, this is a shorter course at just under 7,200 yards. Still, trouble is everywhere and not just water. The fairways are narrow, the rough is “sufficient” for lack of a better word, and even the trees can play havoc with wayward shots. We have Bermuda Greens which, if you use stats, then shots-gained putting on this type of green may be helpful. The greens are slightly quicker than tour standards.
Key factors this week:
- Shots Gained Off-the-Tee
- Shots Gain Approach (or Proximity to the Hole)
- Greens in Regulation (GIR)
I’m traveling this week so I’m trying to get this article out to you all before I leave. I should be available on Discord for questions but will likely not be able to make changes to or edit the article if my research on Tuesday evening leads me somewhere else.
As brutal as last week was, we still have a lot of guys make the cut. I didn’t exclude Scottie Scheffler from my player pool but I also didn’t tout him. Honestly, he just played consistently. It’s not often that the winning score on Sunday is lower or equal to the leading score after Thursday’s round (Rory was -6 after Thursday).
Remember, PGA isn’t a “positional” form of DFS and everyone qualifies for every position. It’s all about price and current form in my opinion. Like last week, the format will be:
- Each Thousand Dollar price range, I will give you my Top 2
- “Dew Sweepers” – two contrarian picks that I think will be low owned…or I just have a gut feeling on.
- At least one “longshot” in the final price range – no Dew Sweepers.
- Two “Cores”
- Top 10 in my statistical model for those of you wanting stats
NOTE: All pricing is based on DraftKings
This may be a good week for a balanced lineup since pricing in Majors and “Major-like” events are typically more reasonable and some “studs” may be priced in the low $8K – high $7K range simply because the quality of the field is better. That, and I think DK makes the pricing easier because those that will normally not play Golf-DFS will jump in simply because of the hype surrounding the tournaments.
I’m changing the Tier structure some this week simply because the $8K to $8.9K grouping will have fewer guys than the Top Tier and this will likely be where the majority of the picks will and should come from in setting a balanced lineup – and, frankly, even a stars-and-scrubs lineup would rather focus on the $7.5K to $8.9K range than delving into the $6K range if you can avoid it.
New Tiers (at least for this week and likely all Majors):
- $9,000 and Above
- $7,500 to $8,900
- $7,000 to $7,400 (there’s a ton of guys here)
- Under $7,000 (also a HUGE PILE of guys here – but many are avoidable)
$9,000 and Above
As always, when I can’t decide on certain players I like to look at two things as my “tiebreaker” even when the field isn’t loaded:
- Current Form (CF) – if a guy is playing well, it’s reasonable to assume he will continue playing well. Golf is streaky and if a guy struggled on Saturday and Sunday the week before, I’m going to move him down.
- Course History (CH) – as I said, it’s streaky. If you’re playing bad, the thing that turns you around is usually a good lesson, time off, or a course that fits your eye.
Another week! Another request for the $70,000 salary cap from DraftKings! I know, shut up! I’m just saying it would make picking you Studs so much easier!
There are 121 players priced below $8,000! Yes, that’s correct! 84% of the golfers in this tournament are $7,900 or less! This WILL make it easier to get more high-priced players in a lineup and you can find plenty of guys in the 121-player pool to make it work. However, TPC Sawgrass is notorious for more missed cuts by top players in the world than just about any other course on Tour. Seriously, Mito Pereira, Thomas Pieters, and Lucas Glover are all $6,700 or less.
As a disclaimer for those of you who haven’t read my articles before, I’m one that tends to skip the “obvious” plays in this category simply because it’s easy to pick Rahm, Rory, and JT every week and then tout how well your picks were. When, in fact, getting all three of those guys in a lineup in a normal week is damn near if not completely impossible. This week may be slightly different.
- Xander Schauffele ($9,700) – I told you all at the beginning of the year that he was one of my favorite players for 2022. My only concern with him is that he has missed his last two cuts here. He did finish 2nd in his first year however. I’m not letting that push me away this week since his game is solid and controlled. If he gets his putter to wake up – which is normally a strong suit for him – he will be fine.
- Scottie Scheffler ($9,200) – How can I not go with the hottest guy on Tour right now. Coming into TPC Sawgrass with a boat load of confidence is absolutely a tremendous advantage. He’s been Top 10 in his last 3 events and Top 25 in everything this season. His only attempt here was a missed cut, but I’m chalking that up to a learning experience. I’ll take the $1,900 in savings between him and Rahm.
Dew Sweepers:
- Viktor Hovland ($10,100) – Yeah, he struggled on Sunday at the API, but so did just about everyone else. Four Top 5s in his last five events is hard to pass on. Again, like Scheffler, his only attempt here resulted in a Missed Cut. And, just like with Scheffler, I couldn’t give two shits about that!
- Collin Morikawa ($10,700) – Yeah, I hate giving you so many guys in the five-figure range. But, like I said, it’s doable this week when you have 121 guys below $8K.
NOTE: This is not a normal week. Taking the last two guys I mentioned (Hovland & Morikawa), leaves you $7,300 per golfer. Even taking the three lowest-priced five-figure golfers (Morikawa, Thomas and Hovland) leaves you $6,266. There are enough $6K guys to do this, but I’m not sure I would.
NOTE 2: Didn’t recommend him, but Bryson DeChambeau has withdrawn
$7,500 to $8,900
Even adjusting the price ranges, there still aren’t that many guys in this range – 18 maybe. This range still has a lot of viable options in it given the pricing this week. I’m not sure I love it, but I don’t hate it either. The reason I hate it is because finding that “hidden treasure” isn’t as easy.
- Will Zalatoris ($8,900) – I wasn’t really happy with Will on Sunday because he appeared to be one of those guys that just said “to Hell with it” when it started going bad. From a DFS standpoint, I was pissed because he was one of my favorites. However, short memory is sometimes a good thing and I think he rebounds here.
- Billy Horschel ($8,100) – Much like Scottie Scheffler in the upper tier, few golfers are playing as well as “Billy Ho” right now. Four Top 20s in a row with two Top 10s. In the last two Florida events, he’s finished T2 and T16.
Dew Sweepers:
- Matthew Fitzpatrick ($7,700) – Dear God! Can I get him at this price every week? In the last 3 months, he’s been Top 10 in the events he’s entered. That’s in the last five weeks too so Current Form is awesome!
- Tyrrell Hatton ($7,800) – Much like Fitz, he’s played in 3 events in the last 8 weeks. T2-T4-T6! If the trend continues, that would be a … let’s see … something better than T2! He’s volatile! But, he’s also very very good at golf!
BONUS: Since this is a loaded category, I’ll give you a couple other names to sprinkle in when you want or can: Daniel Berger ($8,800), Adam Scott ($8,200 and his hasn’t missed a cut here in 9 years), Abraham Ancer ($7,600), and Shane Lowry ($8,000). Also, the Major Machine, Brooks Koepka ($8,600) is also in this tier.
$7,000 to $7,400
These lower tiers are loaded with players and some prices that make it hard to pass on certain guys.
- Sergio Garcia ($7,400) Made every cut here since 2011. Yes, he’s not the Sergio of old – because he is getting older like the rest of us. Still, at $7,400, he’s definitely a value play.
- Tommy Fleetwood ($7,400) – Yeah, I put him in my doghouse on Friday because I wasn’t following my own advice. Never get upset on Thursday or Friday because it’s never as bad or as good as you think it is! I was writing him off. Then, the cut line blew up and he finished Top 20! Too much talent at this price to ignore and he has two Top 10s at this event in four tries.
Dew Sweepers:
- Si Woo Kim ($7,300) – Or should we call him Si Woo Dye? I don’t know what it is, but he loves Pete Dye designs. He’s also playing pretty well right now…especially for this price point. CH here is T9-T56-T63-Win-T23!
- Justin Rose ($7,300) –Wow! Did I screw up the logic call last week or not? As disappointed as I was, I’m saying not! Last week was absolutely freaking brutal! I’ll take another chance on Rosie at this price this week!
Honorable Mentions: Gary Woodland ($7,400) (Don’t trust him fully yet, but he’s playing much better) and Ian Poulter ($7,300) (The bromance is back! Well, maybe. The “Honey Badger” at this price in a quasi-Major can pay off big time!)
Under $7,000
Eighty players of the 144 falls into this range! Freaking 80! More than half the field! In most weeks, this is justified. This week – potential opportunity!
- Keegan Bradley ($6,900) – Definitely player better than this price tag
- Mito Periera ($6,700)
- K. H. Lee ($6,300)
- Brian Harman ($6,900) – To 10 in the last two years here.
LONGSHOT:
- Matthew Wolff ($6,800) – He’s playing like shit right now, but did make the cut and finish last week at Bay Hill. If he gets his head on straight – along with his drives – $6,800 will seem like a major misprice on Sunday.
No more fades! I’m going with the positive. Here are two potential “Cores” to build with:
CORE #1 (top heavy):
Collin Morikawa
Justin Thomas
Viktor Hovland
(Leaves you $6,266 per golfer – It’s doable this week if you want to differentiate)
CORE #2 (balanced):
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Patrick Cantlay
Abraham Ancer
(Leaves you $8,266 per golfer)
CORE #3 (GUT PICKS – you pick the Top Tiers):
Sergio Garcia
Cameron Young
Lanto Griffin
(Leaves you $9,466 per golfer)
FOR THE STATS NERDS AMONG US:
TOP 15 using the model I utilize with 50% Current Form/ 25% Key Stats / 25% Course History:
(V) = Value at $8,000 or less
- Justin Thomas
- Jon Rahm
- Matthew Fitzpatrick (V)
- Daniel Berger
- Collin Morikawa
- Jason Kokrak (V)
- Adam Scott
- Billy Horschel
- Sergio Garcia (V)
- Rory McIlroy
- Cameron Smith
- Talor Gooch (V)
- Will Zalatoris
- Sungjae Im
- Shane Lowry (V)
Suggestion made this week on Discord: Load the names in this article (not the Top 15) into the optimizer and see what you get. Or, in the alternative, lock in 3 or 4 and the let the optimizer fill out your lineup. Renner has worked hard on the Opto so, let’s put it to the test.
Ask questions on Discord if you have them. Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it!
GOOD LUCK!!