Valspar Championship
Wow! And here I thought API was brutal! Not only was last week a complete “fustercluck”, it extended into this week. And, to top it off, I forgot we still had Valspar this week. So, as brutal as it has been, last week was NOT the last week in the Florida swing. Overall, the write up last week had several good things – Hovland, Fleetwood, and Keegan. As predicted though:
“However, TPC Sawgrass is notorious for more missed cuts by top players in the world than just about any other course on Tour.”
So, the ACTUAL final week of the Florida swing is this week and the course may actually be more difficult than both the TPC and API tournament courses. Much like the “Bear Trap” of two weeks ago, we have the “Snake Pit” this week on holes 16-18. Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead Course is tough. Now, that’s not to say that the winner and a couple of other guys won’t go low, but this course is typically not a birdie-fest. Avoiding bogeys or worse this week will be key. Fairways are narrow (Driving Accuracy), greens are small (Greens-In-Regulation), and the greens are quick.
Key factors this week (probably look familiar too):
- Shots Gained Off-the-Tee
- Shots Gain Approach (or Proximity to the Hole)
- Greens in Regulation (GIR)
Remember, PGA isn’t a “positional” form of DFS and everyone qualifies for every position. It’s all about price and current form in my opinion. Like last week, the format will be:
- Each Thousand Dollar price range, I will give you my Top 2
- “Dew Sweepers” – two contrarian picks that I think will be low owned…or I just have a gut feeling on.
- At least one “longshot” in the final price range – no Dew Sweepers.
- Two “Cores”
- Top 10 in my statistical model for those of you wanting stats
NOTE: All pricing is based on DraftKings
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I’m changing the Tier structure some this week simply because the $8K to $8.9K grouping will have fewer guys than the Top Tier and this will likely be where the majority of the picks will and should come from in setting a balanced lineup – and, frankly, even a stars-and-scrubs lineup would rather focus on the $7.5K to $8.9K range than delving into the $6K range if you can avoid it.
New Tiers (at least for this week and likely all Majors):
- $9,000 and Above
- $7,500 to $8,900
- $7,000 to $7,400 (there’s a ton of guys here)
- Under $7,000 (also a HUGE PILE of guys here – but many are avoidable)
$9,000 and Above
As always, when I can’t decide on certain players I like to look at two things as my “tiebreaker” even when the field isn’t loaded:
- Current Form (CF) – if a guy is playing well, it’s reasonable to assume he will continue playing well. Golf is streaky and if a guy struggled on Saturday and Sunday the week before, I’m going to move him down.
- Course History (CH) – as I said, it’s streaky. If you’re playing bad, the thing that turns you around is usually a good lesson, time off, or a course that fits your eye.
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I probably haven’t openly said this, but I rarely start my lineups from the top tier unless I feel strongly about a guy’s potential to win. Many times, I’ll start in the low $8K range and build from there.
Justin Thomas ($11,000) – Personally, I’m not likely to play him this week simply because of price. However, watching his composure and ball control last week, if I can fit him in for some reason, I won’t turn away.
Viktor Hovland ($10,800) – He’s still playing extremely well and has had a T9 and a T2 in the last two weeks in very difficult playing conditions. My only concern is that he may be mentally tired, but he’s also too young to know better.
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Dew Sweepers:
Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,000) – He missed the cut at TPC which I think will turn a lot of people away. Much like Xander Schauffele ($10,300), who I also recommend for the same reason, he got the bad end of the draw last week with starting times and the delays. Of the two, I’d prefer Fitz simply because of the price difference.
Jason Kokrak ($9,200) – Current form as far as finishing position isn’t spectacular, but he hasn’t missed a cut in quite some time. He’s made 6 or his last 7 cuts here with five of those being Top 15s and 3 being Top 10s.
In play: Louis Oosthuizen ($9,900) – remember the rule!
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$7,500 to $8,900
This isn’t as stacked as it was last week, but I didn’t expect it to be. Still, there are a lot of guys in this group that can be played with confidence – at least with as much as PGA DFS allows.
Keegan Bradley ($8,400) – Who is this guy? Priced under $7K last week because of the field and he could have won! Nice call Mark (as I pat myself on the back and get a fresh cup of coffee)? He looks like Ryder Cup Keegan of years ago. With the way he is playing in Florida (5th & T11), I’ll go back even at $1,500 more.
Russell Knox ($8,100) – Not only is Russell playing well right now (T6 at TPC), but he’s been Top 25 in each of his last three appearances here.
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Dew Sweepers:
Alexander Noren ($8,700) – He’s making cuts. I think I would prefer the other two lower priced guys from above, but Noren does have two Top 10s in his last four events.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,900) – He has no course history here to rely on. “Gesundheit” won’t “Bless You” with a bunch of birdies and eagles, but that’s not what this course gives up. He has finished Top 25 in both Florida events he played this year so I expect that to continue. My interest in him is his ability to avoid the BIG NUMBER!
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$7,000 to $7,400
Last week? LOADED! This week? Meh! There are still some really good players in this range so don’t sleep on them if you want to get some studs in the lineup.
Matthias Schwab ($7,300) – Euro-Tour guy primarily and some casual DFS players in PGA may not know him. He has no experience here, but much like Aussie’s, using European players in the wind doesn’t bother me as much. He tied for 7th in both Florida swing events he’s played in this year.
Denny McCarthy ($7,400) – Absolutely nothing super exciting about this guy…except that he makes cuts! At this price, it’s what you want. He’s made 10 of his last 11 with two Top 15s. He also had a Top 10 here in 2019. The 2020 event was not played due to COVID.
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Dew Sweepers:
Mito Pereira ($7,200) – Again, no experience on Copperhead, but the game is solid. His performances have been up and down. 3 missed cuts and 3 made cuts. But, when he makes it, he’s Top 30.
Joel Dahmen ($7,100) – For as well and consistently as he’s been playing, this is a little bit of a steal. Played well in the conditions last week too.
Honorable Mentions: Charley Hoffman ($7,100) (Hasn’t played much this year, but is Top 25 at Copperhead more often than not) and Sam Ryder ($7,000) (Missed his last two cuts here but he’s also made five in a row on Tour this year. Confidence is good at this price!)
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Under $7,000
Back to using this tier only if necessary. There are some options though.
Pat Perez ($6,900) – He’s not going to win but he’s made cuts here.
Vaughn Taylor ($6,700)
Graeme McDowell ($6,700)
Bill Haas ($6,600) – I don’t think he’s played well at any course other than Copperhead in the last five years.
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LONGSHOT:
Mark Hensby ($6,000) – This is a true longshot and, yes, I did stick him in a lineup. He’s an Aussie and can definitely play in the wind. His only appearance was at the Puerto Rico Open (the other tournament the week of the API) where he placed 7th. He hadn’t played since sometime in early 2021. He’s min-priced so making a cut is value.
No more fades! I’m going with the positive. Here are two potential “Cores” to build with:
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CORE #1 (top heavy):
Viktor Hovland
Xander Schauffele
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(Leaves you $7,225 per golfer) – Only took two to show you it isn’t as easy this week
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CORE #2 (balanced):
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Alexander Noren
Keegan Bradley
(Leaves you $7,966 per golfer)
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CORE #3 (GUT PICKS – you pick the Top Tiers):
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Mito Pereira
Matthias Schwab
(Leaves you $9,200 per golfer)
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FOR THE STATS NERDS AMONG US:
TOP 20 using the model I utilize with 50% Current Form/ 25% Key Stats / 25% Course History:
(V) = Value at $8,000 or less
- Viktor Hovland
- Sam Burns
- Justin Thomas
- Dustin Johnson
- Abraham Ancer
- Keegan Bradley
- Jason Kokrak
- Louis Oosthuizen
- Shane Lowry
- Xander Schauffele
- Alexander Noren
- Collin Morikawa
- Russell Knox
- Denny McCarthy (V)
- Webb Simpson
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout (V)
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Cameron Tringale (V)
- Pat Perez (V)
- Tyrrell Hatton
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Load the names in this article (not the Top 20) into the optimizer and see what you get. Or, in the alternative, lock in 3 or 4 and the let the optimizer fill out your lineup. Renner has worked hard on the Opto so, let’s put it to the test.
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Ask questions on Discord if you have them. Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it!
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GOOD LUCK!!