Mexico Open
My apologies for the last couple of weeks folks. My life schedule has been hectic and I didn’t see a need to write up a team event.
Back to the grind! Do you remember when you were walking through the Mall – when they were a thing – and you found a directory with a little red dot that said “You Are Here”? Yes? Well, that’s what I feel like this week. Vindata Vallarta is a course that we have no real history on. We also don’t have a super field even though we do have Jon Rahm, Tony Finau, Abraham Ancer and Patrick Reed. While these are the big names, none of them are playing “lights out” right now and Ancer has two withdraws for “undisclosed reasons”. Now, my gut tells me that doesn’t happen this week since he is a big proponent of a tournament in Mexico, but I’m not an insider and I just don’t know for sure.
Jon Rahm should be the heavy favorite, but his price is high. However, with the field we have, there are guys in lower ranges that are just as good as guys in the $8K range. So, if you think Rahm wins, getting him in your lineup isn’t that bad.
Key factors this week:
- Shots Gained Around-the-Green
- Shots Gained Putting
- Shots Gained Approach
The fairways are wide by PGA standards, but the grass on the greens is not something I have seen or know a lot about. Paspalum is supposedly a slower putting surface so putts should not get away from the poorer putters. However, I think it’s an important stat because most good putters can adjust faster than bad ones. Some of my analysis this week will be based on who has played well on courses in this latitude – “Changes in Latitudes, Changes in Attitudes” to quote Mr. Buffett (not Warren)!
Remember, PGA isn’t a “positional” form of DFS and everyone qualifies for every position. It’s all about price and current form in my opinion. The format will be:
Each price range, I will give you my Top 2
- “Dew Sweepers” – two or three (or four in the Top Tier) contrarian picks that I think will be low owned…or I just have a gut feeling on.
- At least one “longshot” in the final price range – no Dew Sweepers.
- Two (or Three) “Cores”
- Top 20 in my statistical model for those of you wanting stats
NOTE: All pricing is based on DraftKings
Tiers:
- $9,000 and Above
- $8,000 to $8,900
- $7,000 to $7,900
- Under $7,000
$9,000 and Above
As always, when I can’t decide on certain players I like to look at two things as my “tiebreaker” even when the field isn’t loaded:
- Current Form (CF) – if a guy is playing well, it’s reasonable to assume he will continue playing well. Golf is streaky and if a guy struggled on Saturday and Sunday the week before, I’m going to move him down.
- Course History (CH) – as I said, it’s streaky. If you’re playing bad, the thing that turns you around is usually a good lesson, time off, or a course that fits your eye. THERE IS NONE THIS WEEK!
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- Jon Rahm ($11,300) – Why not? He is easily the most talented guy in the field and pricing will allow for you to fill your lineup since $7K players have as much of a chance as $8K players. Hell, I’m even looking at a guy that’s $6,500!
- Abraham Ancer ($10,300) – I do like Ancer this week. His game is a little off right now and his reliability has been spotty in the past month, but I think he guts this one out if something is physically wrong simply because it’s the Mexico Open. However, I do expect him to be highly-owned.
Dew Sweepers:
- Sebastian Munoz ($9,800)
- Gary Woodland ($9,900)
- Aaron Wise ($9,500)
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$8,000 to $8,900
- Mark Hubbard ($8,000) – It’s not often my first pick in a tier is the lowest priced guy. However, when I look at his recent play, he has 3 Top 15s in his last four event. Now, that also on the Korn Ferry Tour. But he also played well in Bermuda and Puerto Rico on the PGA Tour.
- C. T. Pan ($8,100) – He makes cuts more than a lot of guys in this range this week. He’s made 5 of his last 6 which is better than many of the guys around him.
Dew Sweepers:
- Aaron Rai ($8,700)
- Sahith Theegala ($8,800)
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$7,000 to $7,900
Remember when I said guys in the $7K range are probably playing just as well as guys in the $8K range and have a chance? Well, yeah, they do!
- Wyndham Clark ($7,600) – With wide open fairways, this plays well for him. He’s a better than average putter and should be fine on the greens. His recent play is also better than some of the guys above him.
- Greyson Sigg ($7,300) – Four cuts in a row and 12/16 this season and 8/9 since the calendar turned to 2022.
Dew Sweepers:
- Brandon Wu ($7,300) – Overall, he hasn’t played great. Expectations were high on him and he just didn’t live up to that early on. However, he’s made the last three cuts including a T3 in Puerto Rico.
- Tyler Duncan ($7,200) – 5 of his last 6 cuts made and 3 Top 30s in his last four events. That’s all you need at this price.
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Under $7,000
Just a couple of guys here:
- Vincent Whaley ($6,800) – Top 30 in his last two events.
- Luke Donald ($6,800) – Playing better. Made his last 3 cuts.
- Bo Hoag ($6,600) – made his last 4 cuts – two on Korn Ferry
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LONGSHOT:
- Patrick Flavin ($6,500) – Back to my comment at the beginning. Patrick “Jimmy Buffett” Flavin has played 3 events on the PGA Tour this season. Puntacana (T54), Puerto Rico (T22) and Bermuda (T17) … sing it boys!
No more fades! I’m going with the positive. Here are some potential “Cores” to build with:
CORE #1 (top heavy):
Jon Rahm
Abraham Ancer
Wyndham Clark
(Leaves you $6,933 per golfer) – Ooof!
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CORE #2 (balanced):
Gary Woodland
Sebastian Munoz
Mark Hubbard
(Leaves you $7,433 per golfer)
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FOR THE STATS NERDS AMONG US:
TOP 20 using the model I utilize with 50% Current Form/ 50% Key Stats:
(V) = Value at $7,500 or less
- Cameron Tringale
- Jon Rahm
- Gary Woodland
- Kevin Na
- Abraham Ancer
- Chris Kirk
- Matt Jones
- Sebastian Munoz
- Tony Finau
- Mark Hubbard
- Brendon Todd
- Kevin Streelman
- Charles Howell III
- Patrick Reed
- Lanto Griffin
- Ryan Armour (V)
- Sahith Theegala
- Pat Perez (V)
- Russell Knox
- Aaron Wise
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This is a week where I doubt you recognize many names past the first page of the leaderboard. These are also weeks where those that read the articles and follow PGA a little closer should have an advantage. 5 out of 6 should cash and 6 out of 6 should give you a good Sunday Sweat!
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Ask questions on Discord if you have them. Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it!
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GOOD LUCK!!