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DAILY-AMBUSH · May 24, 2022

The Dongers Club – May 24th

Alright, we are starting up the three round May Dongers Club Appreciation Contest and below is tonight’s link to join and enter.

May Dongers Club Appreciation Contest (Day 1 of 3) – Enter Here

TODAYS LINEUP RULE

Chug Tuesday!  Any player in your lineup who is $3,500 or below that is 10% or less owned in the contest that hits a HR will give you 14 bonus points (for every HR hit).

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Here are the basic Standings Rules:

This contest is going to run today (5/24), Friday (5/27) and next Tuesday (5/31).

Your combined score from all three days is going to go towards your overall score.

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If you fail to enter on a day, you will receive the total points from the Pirates lineup for that day or the 10th place score from those who did actually show up and play — whichever is lower.

Here are the Day by Day Specific Rules

Tuesday, May 24th (TODAY!!!):  Chug Tuesday – See above

Friday, May 27th:  Chairman Bonus … If you play the Chairman and he homers, you get 2x his points.  If you fade the Chairman and he doesn’t homer, you get 2x the points of the player at the same position (The Chairman will not be an OF)

Tuesday, May 31st:   ISO Tuesday — You cannot have more than 1 player from any game in your lineup (** weather pending there are at least 10 games that play **)

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WEATHER

This looks like a quiet weather night.  Nothing too heavy anywhere which could cause a PPD and most of the Roofs are likely going to be closed.  We don’t have any extremely warm games and we don’t have any games which are impacted by wind.

One spot with some showers coming in will be Toronto/St. Louis but its stormy/rolling in late.  Should play fine.

Chase Field is listed as closed (not that it mattered last night)

Houston roof should be closed

Seattle roof shouldn’t matter much

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Pitching will control this slate tonight.  There’s a high volume of depth options who are all fairly low blow-up risk but many of which are not in automatic smash spots either.

Up top we have Burnes, Cease, Bassitt, Gausman, Gallen, Buehler and Fried all within the same range of each other while there are some viable cheaper pitchers that many will want to take flyers on.  My analysis though on that is we really have limited hitting options today and no reason to go out and full stack lineups.  So give me guys that will get 25-30 DK fpts tonight and on FanDuel don’t be a mid range donkey, take the sure things.

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DYLAN CEASE

Boston went all and got hot during their homestand against the Astros and Mariners.  However, if you are like me you believe that Fenway has hacked their humidor or something because the ball has been flying out of there unlike any other stadium.  The Red Sox go from a top 5 offense at home to a bottom 10 offense on the road this season and now they face my guy to win the AL Cy Young in mid 50 degree weather with a cross wind.  Cease will deal tonight in a pitchers duel.

NOTE:  JD Martinez is back tonight for Boston.  I still have Cease high, but the gap between him and the two below is very minimal.

CORBIN BURNES

Burnes is getting an extra days rest before this start and like Houser last night he has a repertoire which should work well enough against the Padres lineup.  His last three starts have only netted a total of 19 strikeouts (which is obviously low for him) but there’s nothing to indicate any change which would keep him from going back to a potentially 10+ strikeout performance tonight.  With a lot of good pitching options on the table for cheaper price I am good with paying up for Burnes and chasing that ceiling game.

ZAC GALLEN

The only reason to not like Gallen tonight is if you are some delusional Royals fan who missed out on their multi-HR first inning last night and took to Twitter today saying they are going to win this game.  Oh hey, that’s me.  Honestly though, Gallen at home is always extremely good and while overall KC has decent contact numbers there’s no doubt he will strike out both Bobby Witt and Hunter Dozier on his change-up tonight.

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SLEEPER PICK

JOSIAH GRAY

The person without a spine will start their article off tonight saying something like the Dodgers are a -295 money line favorite who have an expected win probability of 82.3% or some horse garbage like that because Walker Buehler is pitching against the lowly Nationals in a cool and overcast Nationals Park.   Bull… Shit.

The Nationals are going to win and I am calling for this to be a low scoring game in which Josiah Gray not only matches Buehler but finishes with more strikeouts than Walker does on the night.

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Other SP Notes: 

Jordan Montgomery … No, we’re not going to force Monty into DFS lineups tonight, but around 7:50 pm you might be wondering if you should have.  After everyone always seems to use him vs the Orioles and he always fails, this is the no doubt about it game where Monty pitches 6 clean vs the Birds.

Framber Valdez … I really like Framber’s upside tonight, but there is one bat I am chasing on the Guardians and he is the one bat that profiles extremely well against him and that would be Franmil Reyes 2 HR night we have all be waiting for.  I can see Valdez finishing with 7 strikeouts though so take his K prop over.

Sonny Gray … I never trust Sonny Gray to be honest with you but I have to share the information.  He’s very underpriced on DraftKings and facing a lineup which is not walking at all and is basically just going through the motions right now.  Expect Sonny to be EXTREMELY chalky tonight, but I am fading and just hoping Sonny pulls a Sonny and leaves in the third inning with some made up injury.

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We continue to not see too many “stacks” go off completely, but we will continue to look to identify which teams we’re going to target for big games and primary exposure of that one or two key players.

BLUE JAYS

Bo Bichette, Vlad Guerrero, Lourdes Gurriel, Teoscar Hernandez

My pick to win the AL East started out great, really great and now it’s only kinda good.

This team should be a lot, a lot better … Maa, this Blue Jays stack  is so slow!

If your Blue Jays stack doesn’t Dong like it used too.

If your Blue Jays stack doesn’t hit back to back jacks like it used to be.

If your Teoscar Hernandez love affair isn’t reliable as it out to be you might not have any real problem at all.

Log on to finally fastball dot com and learn how to optimize your stack to run like new by getting rid of all the Breaking Balls and Off Speed pitches that make this stack just suck!

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Dude!  It’s Finally Fastballs.  Finally Fastballs dot com!

That’s right.  The Jays will get the gas tonight from Jordan Hicks.

Finally!

Finally Fastballs Dongers Club!

If Matt Chapman does anything from Toronto it’s off the bullpen, so we leave him off because he is the one guy who can’t pull on gas in that lineup.  Hope and pray he doesn’t come up with the Bases Loaded

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ASTROS

Yordan Alvarez, Chas McCormick, Michael Brantley

Just from the stand point of who is the worst pitcher to attack tonight, it’s Zach Plesac.  His hard contact and xSLG rates vs both RH and LH hitters rank among the worst on the slate, plus he has the 2nd lowest K% vs LHB, third lowest vs RHB and is facing a team which simply does not strike out much.  If there is one spot where you are paying for 5k+ hitters, it would be Houston but whenever you stack Houston, you MUST get that 6-9 hole guy who goes off and tonight would be a nice Chas McCormick night if you ask me.

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MARINERS

JP Crawford, Kyle Lewis, Jesse Winker

All apologies to James Kaprielian but he isn’t pitching deep and their bullpen isn’t stout right now.  So what else should I say, everyone is … in play.

Kyle Lewis is expected to return tonight for $3200, Jesse Winker for $3200 and Julio Rodriguez for $3500, there is your cheap OF folks if you want to go full stack by by all means, do not be stupid and fade J.P. Crawford because it’s the LHB which will take Kaprielian yard first.

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CATCHER

  1. J.T. Realmuto
  2. Keibert Ruiz
  3. Sean Murphy

FIRST BASE

  1. Vladdy Jr
  2. Jared Walsh
  3. Matt Olson

SECOND BASE

Ah, great position tonight if I do say so myself.  There are a handful of guys who I think are due for their HR streak and Semien is near the top of that list.

Or Segura as last nights Chairman since Ramon Urias did that last night from his Sunday Chairman spot.  Frazier is part of a Seattle stack recommendation.

  1. Marcus Semien
  2. Jean Segura
  3. Adam Frazier

THIRD BASE

This is a thin position today and Alex Bregman is among the most sure things I see today with a .623 xSLG DCPA against Plesac, next question.

Alex Bregman

SHORTSTOP

  1. J.P. Crawford
  2. Corey Seager
  3. Bo Bichette … The way Bo swings if he connects on a pitch from Hicks it will end up in Topeka….  That’s in Kansas.  They’re playing in Missouri.

OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore

I know Aaron Judge hits homers vs the Orioles and that is a tiny park.  I get it.  This isn’t about avoiding him and hoping he puts up a zero, this is about seeing that there is a TON of other options at this position who have lots of upside tonight at 2-3k compared to taking gambles elsewhere.

As long as OF is deep and cheap, I’m gonna go that route because it helps the construction of the lineup elsewhere on DraftKings

  1. Franmil Reyes – The 2 HR game is coming.  I am not moving from the top of this building until it happens damnit.
  2. Lourdes Gurriel Jr
  3. Jesse Winker
  4. Michael Brantley

OUTFIELD – Tier 2

For those who do have the money

  1. Teoscar Hernandez
  2. Giancarlo Stanton > Aaron Judge tonight
  3. Byron Buxton > Mike Trout
  4. Yordan Alvarez
  5. George Springer
  6. Hunter Renfroe

OUTFIELD – Value

  1. Kyle Lewis
  2. Kole Calhoun
  3. Max Kepler
  4. Chas McCormick
  5. Luis Barrera

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  1. J.P. Crawford – SS – Mariners – Chairman of The Dongers Club
  2. Vlad Guerrero Jr – 1B – Blue Jays
  3. Franmil Reyes – OF – Guardians
  4. Alex Bregman – 3B – Astros
  5. Marcus Semien – 2B – Rangers
  6. JT Realmuto – C – Phillies
  7. Jesse Winker – OF – Mariners
  8. Lourdes Gurriel JR – OF – Blue Jays
  9. BONUS ……………………………. Keibert Ruiz – C – Nationals

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CORE PLAYS

I am buying into one off plays tonight.  It’s a nice random Tuesday for a bunch of Law of Averages plays to come through with guys who are due and good.  Like Vlad, Semien, Realmuto, Franmil.  Okay, Franmil is just average, but you get the point.

My Top plays are

  • Dylan Cease – Spend up on pitching.  Even if it’s not Cease, spend up on SP1.
  • Josiah Gray will be on my main DK lineup.
  • Vlad Jr
  • Alex Bregman
  • Value in the OF (Mariners)

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OWNERSHIP BREAKDOWN

I would epxect Dodgers to be heavily owned tonight and there’s no reason in a park that should play very cold and quiet tonight.  They are a definitive fade for me and from a pitching standpoint Sonny Gray and Blake Snell are two cheaper guys on DraftKings which will be forced into lineups.  Guess what, have fun with both.  They both have hard ceilings and while we do not need to attack them as a leverage play, we can just ignore ownership beacuse it’s driven by stupid factors most of the time.

I would not worry about ownership at all today.

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BETTING PLAYS

I have a bunch tonight …

  • Washington Nationals +1.5
  • Detroit Tigers ML
  • Toronto Blue Jays ML
  • Kansas … City … Royals … Money … Line
  • Tigers+Jays+Nationals+Royals ML Parlay.  0.5 units.  Lets ride!
  • Athletics/Mariners OVER 7
  • Jays/Cardinals OVER 7.5

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